Throwing Into Traffic

Endgame 2011 - New England Patriots

2011-01-12T12:10:00.003-05:00

With the wild card round over, let the REAL playoff previews begin...

It’s a hangover, is what it is. The rest of the league makes mistakes, and the Patriots keep exploiting them, and we all pay for it for years and years. Tom Brady drops out of the sky in the draft, the Dolphins release Wes Welker, the Jets release Danny Woodhead, the Seahawks trade for and then trade back Deion Branch; it just never stops. It doesn’t feel natural, the way this organization has become a sort of king vulture, eating the stragglers and growing stronger while they feast. Yet it works, largely because of the hyper-talented combo that acts as the collective mind of the system on and off the field, with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick combining their mutual gifts for tactics and burning indignation and perceived and real slights to drive the team to new heights. The result is perfection built on imperfect athletes, which is frustrating to no end for me as a fan of elite athletes being unleashed, but is certainly commendable in the creativity it achieves in succeeding despite (and, for this system, because of) the lack of multiple rare, unique talents on either side of the ball. Because as much as I criticize this team for never allowing stars to develop outside of Tom Brady, there really are no weak links on this team, the result of it’s successful poaching of the missed opportunities of other teams.

Indeed, the flexibility of the system, allowing its humble talents to “do their job” makes it hellish to face in any single game, particularly given Belichick’s penchant for adjusting to his opponent on the fly and Brady’s refusal to accept that there is a defense he can’t figure out over the course of a game (that last Colts game sealed it; this dude is the new GOAT). You can’t crush this team because they (and the league) protect the quarterback, and stomping anywhere else is like stepping in a mudhole, a lot of force that just opens up more problems to deal with. Each offensive piece does a discreet job that requires attention, and each piece does that job to an elite level, particularly the tight ends Hernandez and Gronkowski, who are uniquely devoted to stretching the field for their position, allowing the receivers to outpace coverage underneath the defense.

The defense is similarly structured around one or two key pieces, the most significant being Vince Wilfork, who engulfs offensive linemen and allows the team’s standard pass rush and zone schemes to work. Equally intriguing is Devin McCourty, who has a Darelle Revis feel to him in the way that any receiver in his area seems to be consistently outmatched for position (watch how he embarrassed Braylon Edwards compared to how Edwards abused Darius Butler earlier in the year). With those two in place and Jerod Mayo swarming around the middle and free to use his athleticism to its fullest expression (which McCourty and Wilfork allow him to do), the rest of the defense simply needs to be in the right place, and as frustrating as that can be on offense, on defense it drives opponents insane, particularly considering the discipline with which the system is run under Belichick. Again, one hyper talented player doing his set job to an elite level allows other, less special athletes to succeed by merely executing to a pedestrian level.

To which I say: Is this our dream now? I know that we’re living in the era of LeBron James the villain and Tea Party driven “power to the people” and an NFL that has been rejecting new forms of critical thought and analysis for a solid decade, but what the hell happened to big dreams of amazing people doing amazing things? If all of that seems unfair, then maybe it is, and I can’t take anything away from what the Patriots do on the field in terms of success. And yes, it’s largely the result of a man who had what was a revolutionary vision in 2000 and stuck to it, but damn, we can’t move on to the next thing? We’re all either clinging to the idea that we can’t be better with more talent (hence the treatment of Randy Moss this year) or just throwing rosters without plans at the wall and hoping they work (cough...COWBOYS...cough). But this can’t be where the game ends, with talent being something to be feared instead of groomed and used to find new ways of doing things. So no, I won’t be rooting for this team this year, and while that has a lot to do with the Jets, it also is in the hopes that someone who is at least trying to build something different can knock off what has become either a rudimentary philosophy on talent to be worshipped, or an ideal that can’t be achieved due to “too many stars,” an idea that makes me squirm.

Hard Candy Christmas

2010-12-24T13:39:00.003-05:00

The holidays always result in travel, which leaves me less time to fully form my thoughts on any given week, but here are a couple of embryonic ideas that are nagging at me.

- Peel back the layers of weirdness that surround ANY fetish (no matter how seemingly tame) and the total lack of judgment involved in posting a private, personal video on a public website while working in the public eye, and isn’t the LOCKER ROOM SHATTERING SCANDAL taking place behind the scenes for the Jets kind of...sweet? Certainly, I’m not shy about looking for reasons to root for my team, but I don’t think I need to reach all that far here. We’re talking about a man who didn’t do something illegal, immoral (at least by any conventional standards), or even all that dishonest (anybody who wants to argue that a corporation has the right to know what you do in the bedroom should probably apply for a job in the 1950’s). The man is really, really into his wife, and he likes feet. As to the former point: We should all be so lucky. As to the latter point: Ken Tremendous (formerly of Fire Joe Morgan) said it best with, “Hey, you know who’s into weird stuff that would really surprise people? Literally everyone on earth.” I’m not trying to take this into the realm of absurd anti-populism and declaring “today, we are all foot fetishists,” but certainly we’re not the society of uptight prudes that the media coverage on this is making us all out to be.

- Because let’s just pick a fight with EVERYBODY today: I like Tim Tebow. I like him as a person, but I also dig him as a football player. Certainly, the showing against the Raiders didn’t cement him as an all time great, but to hear the naysayers, you’d think he pissed himself on the field and threw the ball backwards. Tebow made some nice throws (don’t buy the hype: the TD pass was a REALLY well placed ball, not luck), and the TD run showed some of the unique physicality that he’s capable of bringing to the position. Of course, as with any QB that doesn’t immediately conform to the way the game has always been played, we’re seeing people turn on Tebow, and this is only made worse by the fact that he seems to be an authentic individual, which, as readers of this blog (both of them) should know, is the greatest sin an NFL player can commit. Again, I’m not trying to say that Tebow is going to be a great NFL quarterback, but why should the fact that he’s different both on and off the field serve as any sort of evidence that he can or can’t play in the NFL before he really gets a chance to prove that point on the field? Instead of patience and common sense (to say nothing of actually rooting for good things to happen for a good person), we’re seeing the majority of Tebow detractors attack him either for being an unconventional football player, which makes traditional coaches uncomfortable by questioning their perspective on the game, or being an unconventional human being, which makes everybody uncomfortable by questioning their perspective on themselves.

- Finally, Mike McCarthy earned a pass on the team underachieving last season after the near win he put together in New England, a game in which he rolled backup QB Matt Flynn out as his starter. If you think “almost” doesn’t count, you’re in the wrong place, and I’d even go so far as to say you missed what was essentially a blueprint for how the rest of the league needs to deal with the Pats; you need to match a pummeling defense with an offensive mindset that is trying to squeeze as many points as possible out of every possession, as opposed to playing field position football and praying for survival. If Aaron Rodgers starts that game, the Packers win, and maybe even win in dominant fashion (side note: Matt Flynn could actually continue a trend of backup Packers QBs who go on to be successful starters elsewhere, something Favre’s tenure was marked by thanks to Hasselbeck and Warner). Yes, I understand that the Packers are in danger of underachieving and missing the playoffs again, but they’re in control of their own destiny (they get their one-on-one matchup with the Giants this week), but there has to be some merit found in a coach whose team was decimated by some serious injuries on offense putting together a plan that showed he thought he could beat a more talented opponent in statement-making fashion, as opposed to just hanging around and hoping for a faith healer style miracle at the end (cough...JETS...cough).

Alright, happy holidays to everybody!

Why Do They Have To Be Snakes?

2010-12-15T16:09:00.003-05:00

It has been a week of reconsidering old grudges for me, at least with regard to the NFL. For years, now, I’ve held Del Rio up as an example of what ugly, stubborn, bully coaches can do to a potentially dangerous franchise. I stand by much of my criticism with regard to his refusal to help develop an athletic receiving corps that showed flashes of brilliance into anything other than a novelty. Matt Jones and Reggie Williams are out of the league (despite each having shown the ability to succeed at the NFL level), and even Marcedes Lewis, a physical freak of nature, had to wait for five years and everyone else to leave before Del Rio would consider utilizing him as a centerpiece of his aerial attack. Nevertheless, if I rake Neanderthal Jack over the coals for clinging to his own personal perspective on the game rather than adapting to the talents he has under his command, I need to give him credit for his dogged loyalty to David Garrard, who has proven both this season and in 2007 that he can carry the Jaguars to legitimacy when he’s working efficiently. Certainly, this is more of Del Rio clinging to his vision of a world in which the pass is only utilized as a counterpunch or trick rather than a integral tool, but kudos to him for having the conviction of his beliefs in the face of so much adversity.

Indeed, perhaps this is why Del Rio was so eager to displace former QB Byron Leftwich with Garrard a few years ago; Leftwich represented the allure of dominance from the position, and was exactly the kind of quarterback who could win a game with his arm that fans were clamoring for as recently as earlier this year. Garrard, by contrast, plays toward an effective management of resources and situations. It is, however, a total management of the game as opposed to merely the passing offense, and the result plays out in the Jaguars record: When Garrard is efficient, the Jaguars win, and when he is asked to do more than he can handle, they lose. But for the Cleveland game (the one true test of Garrard as a focal point of the offense, and one which he passed), the Jaguars have yet to win a game in which he throws more interceptions than touchdowns. This explains why the apparent strategy has been to keep Garrard from overextending himself (he has attempted just 291 passes on the year), and yet Garrard has responded in just the opposite way we have come to expect from the stereotypical “leader” under center, becoming a top 10 quarterback with a QB rating over 90 despite having no receivers in the top 30 in receiving yards (Mike Thomas comes in at #37).

This fascinates me as someone who enjoys seeing personalities of coaches and players stamped on the on-field product we see each week. As much as Del Rio can be faulted for not allowing his receivers to do embrace their identities on the field, it’s almost endearing the way he clings to Garrard as a brother in arms, allowing Garrard to fully embrace his own role as a tactician and manager in the most positive senses of both of those terms. MJD has seen increased success as the year has progressed precisely because Garrard has not been forced to create his own openings for punishing defenses that ignore him, but rather has waited in the reeds, compiling enough surprising death blows (go back and look at those wins over Indy, Houston, and Oakland) in a limited sample size to give the appearance of being far deadlier than he may actually be (although I would remind everyone that in 2007, Garrard was a damn Cobra with the way he punished teams caught ignoring him as a threat). If this isn’t the sort of imposition of will that I look for from players and schemes, it is at least the imposition of illusion resulting from the freedom to explore exactly what works best for Del Rio and Garrard as a necessarily bound duo.

We're All So Damn Afraid

2010-12-14T21:39:00.003-05:00

I mean, I may not want to write about it, but there's really only one thing that's happening in the league right now, or at least one thing with regard to victory in the present (watch those Bills and Browns, though). We all need to be watching and appreciating what Belichick, Brady, and the Patriots are doing to the league right now. In two consecutive weeks, they've played teams that have the offensive talent to overpower their young, often shaky defense and the defensive talent to harass Brady, and the results have been season altering embarrassments for both teams. And while I stand by what I've said earlier about my disdain for certain aspects of "The Patriot Way" and the fake indignation that has become synonymous with it, it's hard not to respect the results of that indignation on the field. Because while the composition of the team may scream "THIS IS THE RIGHT WAY TO LIVE", the execution on the field is almost delightfully "F*** YOUR COUCH."

I, for one, am grateful. Yes, watching my team of choice get their doors blown out was painful, but at least it happened in a way that should have taught them a lesson: Hanging around until the end is not a game plan worth respecting (the fact that they didn't learn this the next week is on the Jets, not on the Patriots). The same thing held true for the Bears, who decided they were going to use the weather and home turf to hold the Patriots within shooting distance, only to have the Pats come out burning the boats of "keep it close", and breaking their spirit at the end of the first half (seriously, how is it that only the coach I hate understands that not always trying to score with over a minute left in the half is shameful?). The B&B connection has embraced the reality that their surrounding talent does not stack up conventionally against other teams, and as a result have executed a game plan built to shock teams into submission. It's the "FIGHT" in "fight or flight" as played out by a team that is too dedicated to winning to ever consider playing anything other than a fearless game plan.

That none of their opponents have dared to take the fight to them is shameful, particularly when you consider that neither the Bears nor the Jets have any real "dignity" to which they should be clinging. Does nobody else think that Braylon, Santonio, and Keller should KILL this Patriots secondary, or that Jay Cutler has the arm to punish them down the field and a sold out pass rush from Peppers could shake Brady to the core, or that either team's "creative" offensive guru couldn't construct a rush game built to confuse an inexperienced linebacker corps? Instead, both challengers brought chess sets to gunfights. Am I the only one who has watched enough horror movies to understand that you don't get to walk away alive unless you KILL the monster?

All of this makes me reconsider where my head has been at on New England this year. I still think they did Moss wrong (whatever the mainstream says, this should have been his championship team), and I can't stand the "nobody believes in us" lie that was shed a decade ago, but I'll be damned if I haven't found myself in awe of the killer instinct that both of these things have created in this team. At least, I'm as much in awe of them as I am disappointed that none of their opponents, many of whom built talented rosters specifically to seize their thrown (LOOKING AT YOU JETS), feel the sense of urgency that must necessarily accompany power being seized. Instead, they carry themselves with what they mistake for dignity, but is the game planning equivalent of the emperor's new clothes.

Living Long Enough Isn't a Goal

2010-12-09T17:40:00.004-05:00

Been sick as a dog this week, so let’s cobble two lines of thought into one post...

- I've been saying this all week, but it's worth remembering: A 20-17 near miss would have counted for just as many losses as that 45-3 blowout did for the Jets. If you thought we were going all year without a total meltdown by a Jets team comprised almost entirely of combustible elements, you were crazy. That game was lost in the first quarter (really as soon as Eric Smith gave up a PI in the end zone), things got away from a team that was utterly unprepared for the tone the Pats wanted to set early in the game, and then the only way things could end was in a blowout. Again, it happens; anybody who doesn't sympathize with things spinning wildly out of control either hasn't risked anything or is in the midst of that cycle and doesn't realize it.

None of which is to say that the Jets had the right idea going into the Monday night debacle. New York showed up for their usual drawn out, meandering game in which they hang around and are healed by a miracle at the last second. New England, by contrast, was out make an example of the Jets early and march around Foxborough with their heads on pikes for three quarters. The end result was the Pats jumping out ahead (thanks, in no small part, to the genius tandem of Eric Smith and Robert Turner, who need to vanish quickly) and the Jets having nothing even resembling an aggressive mindset, let alone an aggressive response to unexpected circumstances. The whole thing was sickening to watch for anybody who believes that players or coaches value winning above putting forward a respectable face, and the Pats should be commended for killing the idea of respectably losing early in the game. It's no way to live in the NFL, and shouldn't be tolerated.

Equally intriguing is the idea that the Pats have once again become the enemies of talent rising above that we all remember from 2007. In eschewing Moss and making him look like a spare part instead of one of the most gifted receivers of his generation, and replacing him with an offense based on interchangeable pieces, we’re once again looking at a team that deliberately devalues the power of the rare individual, once brought to their full potential, to overpower any planning or manipulation from off of the field. If that seems harsh, it’s actually just an understanding that Bill Belichick is the single greatest scheme creator (or disruptor, if you prefer) ever. The shame of it is that it’s all executed with this air of entitlement and unwarranted indignation, as if we all don’t know how good this team is (a lie apparent to anybody who watches any sports media) or this team exists without any “superstars” or is better without having elite talents (a lie because TOM BRADY). I’m thrilled to have somebody to hate again. Also, New England is super racist. Look it up.

- The other big thing on my mind is the McDaniels firing, about which I alternate between being understanding and disappointed. On the one hand, McDaniels is, for lack of a better word, a jerk. He undermined Jay Cutler’s leadership on the field in his first months on the job, and he completely refused to work with the most talented offensive weapon on his team. Throw in the Peyton Hillis trade, which flew in the face of all logic even when he made it (people forget he did good work in Denver), and the hammer was primed to come down on the abrasive youngster who acted with brazen recklessness because he simply believed he was smart enough to succeed without mastering basic leadership tools and concepts. History has shown that nobody is that smart.

Except I kind of believe that McDaniels might be smart enough to get by while he doesn’t have those tools and recognize the need to develop them in the meantime, and if that’s the case, isn’t this a really, really, REALLY big mistake by the Broncos? The truth is that in two years, McDaniels has just now managed to put whatever locker room dynamic that he was hoping to create into place. He’s kept a team that is significantly less talented (at the present stage of development) than their opponents in games that they have no business keeping close, has coached Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd into an elite passing tandem, and is starting to see signs of life from Knowshon Moreno. Also worth noting is that he wasn’t the one who shipped Cutler out of town; Bowlen did that on his own. So if you believed in him a year ago, and were thrilled with him when he took a more talented but still clearly flawed team to greater success, has so much changed in one year that it merits this? Worse still, what happens to the young offensive talent that McDaniels has pieced together when a new regime takes over?

In the end, I get the firing, but I feel like we’ll look back on McDaniels’s two years in Denver the way we look back on Mangini’s three years in New York: Largely a failed experiment, but there were flashes of brilliance along the way hinting at future potential. The difference is that McDaniels isn’t being given the one additional year Mangini got to test whether or not his system would succeed with the roster he had crafted and established (and it's worth noting: Mangini learned how to temper his own self-destructive idiosyncrasies en route to being a great coach in Cleveland). That year could have made a huge difference, and I think it would have been a worthwhile investment in one of the most innovative offensive minds in the league (and yes, if somebody takes Schotty off of the Jets’ hands, I want the Jets to pay him whatever he wants). If we demand that coaches develop their players, it's no less important for franchises to allow young coaches to grow into the leaders they expect them to be.

Alright, back to health, and back tomorrow.

The Grind Cuts Both Ways

2010-11-29T16:43:00.003-05:00

As unlikable as the whole lot of them can be (Rivers is a douchebag, Vincent Jackson has the most juxtaposed off-field demons on any WR in the league, and GM A.J. Smith is becoming the posterboy for shortsighted bullies in upper management), what this Chargers team is doing is as much an example of one of the tenets of this blog as anything else: Talent, around which a system is patiently tailored to maximize strengths and dampen weaknesses, will and should always win out in the end. Hell, this is what Norv Turner has been doing for his entire tenure with the team, and is probably why they brought him in to replace the elder disciplinarian Schotty in the first place. In week 5, there might not have been a team you’d rather face than the Chargers, who were a dissonant mass of individual talents whose stats couldn’t hide a total lack of focus in those areas of the game where focus matters most (special teams matter, people). Now, in week 13, there might not be a scarier matchup in the league. At his best, Rivers is a fusion of Drew Brees’s methodical distributor and Jay Cutler’s moody prodigy, and with Jackson returning (never forget: the NFLPA left him out to dry), he now has the elite WR on the outside that he has lacked all year, one that stands on his own talents and need not be created by the system or the QB (Malcom Floyd on any other team is Malcom Jenkins). Indeed, Jackson’s return will likely lead to a new wrinkle in an offensive game plan that is consistently adapting to new data. It grows with its players; what a remarkable concept. Throw in a defense that proved on Sunday that it is ready and willing to coach its unheralded talents (Shaun Phillips was always better than Merriman, and who the hell is Kevin Burnett) up to the habits of any opponent, and the result is a team that seamlessly blends its own strengths with schemes designed to frustrate opponents.

That it’s not particularly pretty when looked at too closely is, perhaps, the result of any product so reliant on high notes for its identity. The Chargers, left to their base identity, are out of place in a league whose history is built on tightly run, closely managed ships. Jackson doesn’t even like this team, and he’s going to be an integral part of their playoff run. This is what leads to the ugliness that was the early part of this season, when the team was finding a way to bring it’s mixture of injuries, suspensions, and harshly edged personalities and talents together. What we’re seeing now, however, flies in the face of the “clean locker room” mentality that Bill Parcells preached into dogma even as he relied on LT’s insanity to build his legend. Rather than expelling discord, Norv Turner has faithfully stuck by his collection of talents and attempted to create a plan of attack in which they can coexist, knowing that if they do so long enough, they will thrive. It’s why he’s crucified by the mainstream media, who love a good old morality play, but it’s also why he may be the real evil genius of the league.

Don't Just Get By

2010-11-23T11:13:00.005-05:00

I feel the same way about Vince Young walking out on Jeff Fisher’s post game conference as I did about Michael Vick shooting the double bird salute to a booing Atlanta crowd after a close loss at home: Good for him. At some point, you don’t owe people any more respect than they give you, and both young men certainly earned more than they had received from their respective targets at the time things fell apart. Hell, in the case of Fisher, I’m not sure the man has earned a level of objective respect for his accomplishments, considering that he hasn’t won anything significant in a decade, watched his team flame out in their best season, and singlehandedly prevented his team from reaching the playoffs last year. At what point do we say that a coach's job is to maximize the achievement of his young talents while protecting them from the pitfalls of great expectations in the NFL?

Contrast that with what Fisher has done to Young: He fed into the growth of Young's legend when it benefited him to do so, failed to construct a roster to protect Young as a passer, sacrificed Young's development at the altar of pragmatism, and finally hitched Young's future to an unrealistic requirement that he live up to a lightning in a bottle past, essentially demanding that Young become a solid starting quarterback in order to earn the right to develop into a solid starting quarterback. I like to think that Young leaving that locker room was a moment of clarity, one that ought to be commended in a young man who is so recently removed from being dangerously handicapped in his self-understanding: Fisher was never going to respect Young, let alone embrace him as the inextricable part of Fisher's future that he is. Why stay in that room, pleading for a resolution that had been dangled in front of him all year but would never arrive? We hesitate to put ourselves in the shoes of athletic phenomenons paid more than we can imagine, but I refuse to believe we can't all sympathize with the suffocating relationship Young was in, or nod our heads at the decision to break free and come up for air.

All of this is why I think Bud Adams gets it. Yes, Fisher has done a commendable job turning grunts and foot soldiers into a winning football team. That is why Adams keeps him around; he’s the kind of coach who will rarely helm a dead fish of a squad. Adams’s refusal to jettison Young, however, speaks to an understanding that for all of the good things he does to keep the team afloat, Fisher shouldn’t get to KEEP this team treading water, where he can deflect criticism with the refrain of making lemons out of lemonade. Young (in addition to Chris Johnson, who plays a position that is much easier to transition to the NFL, and Kenny Britt, with whom Fisher has also had major problems) represents the potential for greatness, which benefits everybody but Fisher, and which Adams has wisely chosen to force Fisher to either embrace, or flee.

As foreign as that seems to NFL coaching society, shouldn’t the debacles of the Singletary and new-Parcells eras show us that talent isn’t beaten out of an unwilling pupil by an infallible tyrant, but highlighted by an understanding coach creating an environment in which his player can succeed? If Fisher does decide that he won’t be told how to do his job, one that he has proven capable of doing over the years, I’ll ask for the same thing I’m asking for Vince Young: Understand that a man has a right to refuse to be bullied.

The Ones That Matter - Week 11

2010-11-19T15:39:00.002-05:00

From here on out, we're picking the games that you should be watching every week, and we're telling you why.

Raiders at Steelers (1:00 PM, Sunday)

If you didn’t see this coming, then you’re probably not a believer, and you’ve stumbled onto this blog by accident en route to some former quarterback telling you that the Steelers will win because they’ll “circle the wagons” and “play Steeler football”, but allow me just one thought before you click on by: If the Raiders are actually coming together, and not simply riding a fluky streak of wins, this team has the talent to add a legitimate dark horse to the playoffs as opposed to an obligatory AFC West entrant. The Chiefs simply don’t have the defense or the second receiver to hang with more heavily armed opponents, and nobody should root for the undisciplined Chargers after what they’ve pulled with Vincent Jackson this year (Just wait until he’s in a Pats uniform and tearing up the league, along with the team’s seven (SEVEN) picks in the first four rounds of the upcoming draft. Thanks for that, AJ Smith.). The Raiders, on the other hand, look like a scary opponent that you don’t mind getting behind. Jason Campbell (or Bruce Gradkowski) both have a palatable skill set under center, particularly when Campbell is getting rid of the ball more quickly and spreading it around to his wide receivers, any of whom can go off for monster days in any given week. Run DMC is what the Bills were hoping CJ Spiller could be this year, performing capably between the tackles and putting the fear of God into defenses once he’s in open space. Zach Miller has been toiling in obscurity for a minute now, but it merits mentioning again: The dude is the next Antonio Gates. On the defensive side of the ball, Nnamdi is having another Nnamdi year (there might not be an elite player who excites fans less...a large part of his style), and the front line has notched 27 sacks on the year, with DE Richard Seymour playing like a man possessed and rookie DE Lamarr Houston getting involved for 2 of his own.

The point is that this is a team that can actually play a lot of different kinds of football, depending on what the situation calls for, while still having the firepower to impose their will on the game. Considering how beaten up the Steelers are looking at this point, and how they were made an example of by the Pats last week, isn’t it worth considering that we’d all rather live in a world with more teams like the Raiders, brimming with unanswered questions and undeniable potential, than the Steelers, who at this point are more of a monument to what was rather than any sort of promise as to what could be?

Browns at Jaguars (1:00 PM, Sunday)

If Eric Mangini wants to be taken seriously, he needs his team to win this game. Hell, we all need his team to win this game, if only because I’d hate to see Jack Del Rio rewarded for stripping this team of any identity to the point where they win because you have no clue who they are. At this point, the Jaguars win games by dragging them into an unlikable mess of chaos, not because they rely on Garrard’s unique blend of brute force and precision or MJD’s otherworldly ability to disappear between defenders. Certainly, Mike Thomas has been a pleasant surprise (though short WRs have a way of disappearing after a little while, as Mike Sims-Walker taught us), and TE Marcedes Lewis has been a revelation (7 TD on the year, finally using his massive frame in conjunction with his known receiving talent). All of these things, however, are reduced to clanging instruments without harmony under Del Rio. Mangini, with less talent (remember this: no Browns WR would be a top 2 WR on ANY other NFL team) and more adversity (I’ll always weep for you, Seneca Wallace) is crafting a symphony, focused around certain outstanding set pieces (The Avalanche Peyton Hillis on offense and CB Eric Wright on defense), but nevertheless relying on the cooperation of sound and sheet music. Put simply, only one of these head coaches deserves to helm a team next season, and it isn’t the one with the better record right now.

Buccaneers at 49ers (Sunday, 4:05 PM)

I’m rooting for the 49ers, because I think this Bucs team still has time to grow (one more solid draft, particularly for the defense, and they leap from explosive wild card to genuinely high-functioning machine), because the Falcons and Saints are going to prevent the Bucs from achieving in the postseason anyway, and because FREE TROY SMITH! FREE TROY SMITH! FREE TROY SMITH!

Giants at Eagles (Sunday, 8:20 PM)

The amount of athleticism that will be at war in that Eagles offensive backfield is going to be incredible. This is basically the football version of one of those Star Wars spacecraft battles.

Broncos at Chargers (Monday, 8:30 PM)

You think Josh McDaniels used up all his “F*** YOU” anger against KC? This Chargers team has yet to pull together a victory that impresses (the Texans victory was a fluke against a mediocre opponent, the Titans didn’t have any pass attack, the Cardinals are a mess, and the Jaguars hadn’t gone into full blown black hole mode). Meanwhile, the Broncos play southpaw offense, and are coming off of the kind of post bye week win that makes me think McDaniels has figured out how to use his underrated ground weapons (yes, that’s right, Knowshon Moreno and Tim Tebow are underrated). When the dust settles, this feels like the kind of game the Chargers have been losing all season, close contests that depend on a team executing consistently to win.

Undone Origami

2010-11-17T15:24:00.000-05:00

Here’s the thing: We all knew exactly what Michael Vick was capable of doing. The man didn’t get three Pro Bowls and playoff wins because he sells jerseys. To say that we are only just now seeing what we believed Michael Vick could be is a lie for that very reason. What we’re seeing now is something even more remarkable; Vick is becoming the sort of singular engine of effective offense that only Brady and Manning have been up until now. Watching him operate on Monday night was a revival of the dream of a quarterback becoming something more dynamic. It’s not a rejection of the classic way the position is played, as there will always be a place for pocket passers like Brady and Manning, but it certainly provided an alternative path to success, one built on a gripping combination of athleticism and cleverness. The way Vick uses his speed to hold defenders in place, allowing his weapons to find space and exploit mismatches, is just as effective as any well timed pocket play or pinpoint accurate pass; it is, then, a different way to play a game that has long been perceived as immutable (as untrue as that perception may be).

There is, perhaps, a second beauty to be found here, as well, one that extends beyond the breathtaking game that Vick is playing. Certainly, he gives hope that coaches can, and therefore will attempt to win by leveraging unique gifts as weapons in and of themselves rather than as tools fitting a system, but he also gives a voice back to creative game planning and risk taking in the NFL. If a team can win by playing THIS kind of different, who’s to say that another team can’t also create their own way? Coaches desperate for success, rather than retreating to old standards, could now push into undiscovered territory of schemes and systems, unearthing new tactics in the process. It all allows for the possibility of completely unique identities for teams, each one distinctly built to succeed based on the unique combination of individuals and abilities involved. Yes, I’m rooting for one player, but if you can’t see Vick is bigger than that, you’re missing the future unfolding before us.

Inversions of Measurables

2010-11-11T16:49:00.003-05:00

Few things this season have made me as happy as watching Peyton Hillis become a star. This is made all the more remarkable by the nature of the Browns, a team devoted to defeating opponents as a team focused on a collective identity, scheme, and goal. Still, to credit the Browns’ success solely to the efforts of the coaching staff (who are the architects of the turnaround we’ve seen over the last year) or the collective vision of the locker room (an element of team success about which this team has single-handedly changed my mind) would be a disservice to just how unique Hillis has shown himself to be this year. Hidden at Arkansas behind Felix Jones and Darren McFadden, speedier backs more suited to college offensive schemes, Hillis has used the heightened level of competition in the NFL to establish an identity for himself as an offensive force. Whereas college is a more speed-centric game, the increased speed (and, indeed, general athleticism) of fellow NFL players actually serves to bring out the unique elements of Hilis’s game. In a league filled with shooter runningbacks, Hillis’s style is something of an aged scotch, smoothing brute force with complex moves and unexpected ability to create an identity of attack that is satisfying even as it lacks the jarring nature of similarly remarkable players.

It’s the dichotomy, really. Hillis is a power back by nature. The closest comparison I can think of is Brandon Jacobs’s 2007 season, in which he decreed his runs as predestination. Hillis’s size allows him to fit this mold nicely. Hillis, however, substitutes a degree of craftiness for Jacobs’s head of steam determination. Certainly, when Hillis is met at the point of attack by a defender, he applies explosive power in the direction of the initial path. The difference is that when that force is met by well positioned defense, Hillis has already begun a sort of second move designed to capitalize on the conflict at the initial contact. A spin, or a redirection of course frequently leaves the most well positioned defender engaged in a battle that no longer exists. That’s the real difference, now that I think about it; trying to defend against Hillis isn’t Armageddon so much as it is guerilla warfare, a massive front consisting of too many battles to adequately measure and confront.

None of this takes Hillis’s receiving skills into account, which is what keeps him from becoming a clone of the young Thomas Jones, a scary one-dimensional attack. Hillis has deceptively good hands, and his size masks an ability to disappear into the flats, building a head of steam that makes him difficult to stop after the catch. In this way, he’s better than his predecessor, Jerome Harrison, who teams recognized almost solely as a passing threat; with Hillis, the need to prepare for him as a power back opens the field in a way that Harrison never could.

The resulting combination makes Hillis one of the most unique offensive weapons in the league, and although offensive game plans have helped to highlight his abilities, he is the engine of that planning by virtue of his versatility, the centerpiece that allows the cohesive whole to function. I’m particularly intrigued as to whether or not his style, power giving rise to agility (as opposed to the reverse), has a future in the league. Certainly, in a league that is chiefly focused on getting faster, it is one of the more unique ways of looking at the concept, focusing on functional speed rather than speed in a vacuum being forced into the game.

Shooting Stars With No Sun and Other Scattered Thoughts

2010-11-08T23:37:00.002-05:00

- As I’ve been telling everybody since that debacle in Detroit went down, I will take an ugly, frustrating win over a well executed loss any day. That said: That might have been one of the ugliest wins the Jets have gotten in the Mark Sanchez era. Looking back at it, my frustration stems from the bizarre lack of any clear identity on offense. This might have been more understandable earlier in the year, but at this point the Jets should know how to work with the diversity of weapons at their disposal. Yet instead of cohesion, this team is as schizophrenic as ever. One minute Shonn Greene is sputtering, the next he’s the clear option to bowl over defensive fronts (his 10 carries for 46 yards was what we’ve been looking for all season). Mark Sanchez (22/39, 336 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) switches week to week from being a daring quarterback who is willing to use his offensive line to patiently let his deep threats get loose, and choosing the dump off option simply because the play hasn’t developed as quickly as he would have hoped. Perhaps most frustrating is Braylon Edwards, who has at once emerged as the elite passing weapon the Jets hoped he’d be and the frustrating gaffe machine that his career indicated he could become. That touchdown pass (on which Sanchez patiently trusted Edwards to break free in single coverage) was everything Edwards can be when he’s on; the fumble was the classic maneuver he always makes to lose the good will his great plays build within the fan base. In the end, what we saw on Sunday was not so different from the Jets team that lost 9-0 at home to the Packers: A loose collection of talents that is capable of putting great moments together, but is unable to consistently impose a pattern of attack on opposing defenses.

- One thing that is clear after the past two weeks: Brian Schottenheimer needs to sit down with his play book and rip every third screen pass or quick slant out. He’s running the wrong routes to the wrong targets, and his scripting early in the game shows no desire to test the defense at multiple points of attack. Unfortunately for him, this offense was built to either expose and destroy weaknesses, or lose in a mess; there is no “eek out quiet victories” option here. He’s as large a part of this lack of clear offensive identity as any player on this team.

- Also: Yes, I’m very happy that Darrelle Revis decided to return. The strait jacket he put on Megatron was a thing of beauty. There is no other corner you would put in single coverage on that guy. I think Megatron is a singularly brilliant wideout, but he looked genuinely frustrated by his inability to impose his will on the smaller Revis. Revis essentially pays receivers into a corner, and has the physicality to beat them in a tight space; the fact that he did this to Calvin Johnson is probably his most impressive performance to date.

- Do we consider Peyton Hillis a singular talent based on this year? Blessed with the sheer size combined with solid speed, Hillis is showing shades of 2007 Brandon Jacobs, except Hillis is a deceptively dangerous receiver out of the backfield (30 catches for 229 yards and 1 TD). Considering that opponents go into each week knowing that the most dangerous weapon the Browns have is Hillis (really, excluding TE Ben Watson, the only option), doesn’t this put Hillis in that rare category of backs who are “unstoppable” such as Peterson or Chris Johnson? It’s like watching a smart bomb at work, the way he finds seams and applies force at the running lane.

- Michael Vick is doing everything that we hoped he’d do in the NFL when he was first drafted. It’s the perfect cross section of athletics and quarterback skill. What defense is stopping what the Eagles did on Sunday? Try to zone them out, and these receivers are too fast to keep from breaking the zones. Go man to man, and Vick or McCoy will ruin your day. It’s worth pointing out that, on Sunday, he outplayed Peyton Manning, and he did so by playing his own style, which looked something like the next evolutionary step of what Manning has made the gold standard in the NFL, adding breathtaking individual talent to an intense study of the established tactics and tools of the trade. Like I said, this is what we hoped for years ago.

- It’s worth pointing out amidst all the “Wade Philips ruined what Bill Parcells built!” talk that Bill Parcells is leaving behind his second franchise to have not won a playoff game on his watch. How is Dan LeBatard the only one taking him to task for this?

- Finally: Philip Rivers FTW. You compare him to Peyton, Brady, or nobody, after what he’s done this year (and yes, they are 4-5...we need to start acknowledging amazing individual performances in the midst of front office and general team chaos or failure. It’s why I invented the hall of NFL Street Legends).

A Sharp Intake of Air

2010-11-04T16:37:00.002-04:00

I guess we could minimize this by talking about Randy Moss: Underachiever (who doesn’t exist), or Randy Moss: Team Destroyer (who only existed questionably 5-6 years ago), but why do that when we’re staring down the barrel of what could be one of the most explosive offenses to ever play the game? I’m mad as hell that Kenny Britt might be out for an extended period, because this offense was ready to go Earth Wind & Fire in a way no offense has since…well, since the 2007 Browns almost conned us into thinking that Cleveland was back. Moss give the Titans the one thing that they have never had: A legitimate deep threat who commands attention and preparation. Throw in Nate Washington as the Donte Stallworth type (yes, that man’s career is now a synonym for “guy you can’t really ignore, but you can pretty much ignore”), and this pass game already looks funky. If Britt returns at full strength (the right word for how his game is measured), teams will have to decide between Moss leaving their corners in his wake, or Britt manhandling corners that want no part of a 6’3” 215 pound bull of a receiver, because emptying out the box is not an option.

Yes, people are saying that it’s Chris Johnson who benefits most from this deal, and honestly it’s hard not to agree. Johnson remains one of maybe two (if AP is having a good day) backs who you have to watch when he touches the ball, because something remarkable can always happen. He reverses direction on a dime, and hits full speed in time bested only by the likes of Steve Smith. Furthermore, he’s not soft; he’s gotten a rep as a small back, but he plays tougher than his speed would lead you to believe. Now, he gets to use all of those natural gifts against defenses that are worrying about what the pass attack can do to them if they let them out over the top. The result, if we’re all really, really lucky, is going to be Chris Johnson getting out of the defensive front and into a whole lot of open space to hit top speed. This isn’t even a case of a player’s talents being freed; Johnson has more than proven that he’s an elite talent, and has put up results to indicate as much. That’s what makes this fascinating, though, as the implication is that this could allow him to play at a level we haven’t even seen yet.

I had hoped that the Texans would put together something along these lines, but there’s still something tragically wrong with that team (in their fear of Peyton Manning, they’ve neglected the importance of corners to cover his receivers, or an offensive line to protect their own quarterback). These Titans, however, have to become a favorite to win the AFC South, unless you think that the Colts are going to survive all of these injuries unscathed. Personally, I’m excited for what this means for Vince Young, who finally has the sort of talent that can play into his strengths as an improviser when plays break down. Imagine a pass play breaking down, resulting in a standard VY scramble, which is still good to buy a solid 2-3 seconds of time. You’re now faced with two distinct questions. First, what can Chris Johnson do with the sort of space backs tend to get when a pass play falls apart and a scramble ensues? We’ve covered this above, but it merits repeating: Chris Johnson is going to kill defenses that are forced to spread the field. Second, if Young breaks away for an extra 2-3 seconds, who is going to cover Moss for 5+ seconds? Young can hurl the ball, and there may be one or two other receivers (Megatron and, if healthy, Andre Johnson) who can handle a jump ball pass as well as Moss. Can anybody really cover this defense?

That’s the coolest part about this whole experiment. Yes, Moss could go evil and ruin it all, but what’s the harm of that if you’re the Titans? If this works, though, we’re looking at an offense that plays with unprecedented athleticism (and, in most cases, talent) at every level (I’m including VY here for the athleticism, if not the proven talent yet). Plays don’t break down as much as they morph into new plays on the strength of the uniqueness of the players involve. It’s the Venus effect: Beautiful in its design, but potentially more beautiful because things fall apart.

Yeah, I’m kind of excited about this whole thing.

Bristles

2010-11-03T20:55:00.002-04:00

I’m not down on coaches, honestly. For all of my railing against rigid system-think and bully coaches who get off on yelling at twentysomethings, I think a good coach means more in the NFL than in any other sports league. The coach is, ideally, the architect of a vision that tailors itself to the strengths of the team, matching the coach’s experience and knowledge with the unique talents of his players. What the coach is not, however, is the star of the drama surrounding his team. Even Bill Belichick had the sense to allow Tom Brady to become the star of the Patriots during the dynasty years, and that team relied on their coach’s system perhaps more than any successful team since then.

All of this brings us to Brad Childress, and the following question: Has any franchise allowed the insecurity of one individual to drag an entire team down like the Vikings have allowed Brad Childress to do over the last several years?

To review: Brad Childress drafted Tarvaris Jackson after trading up to get him, essentially anointing him the project quarterback of the future for his Vikings. Except when things got difficult in the first year, Childress scrapped that plan and moved to more stable, if infinitely less exciting veterans (a side note: The story of Tarvaris Jackson is nowhere near written), only to flip flop between his young prospect and established journeymen as time progressed. Eventually, the whole decision was taken out of his hands when Brett Favre was brought in to become quarterback, and for a season things functioned well, largely because there really wasn’t much for Chilly to do other than draw up plays for Favre to adopt as his own. This year, however, with tensions running high thanks to the absence of last years refreshing ease, Chilly has already fallen back into old habits, throwing his quarterback under the bus to pave the way for a return to “building for the future” with Tarvaris (SOMEONE WITH THAT KIND OF ATHLETICISM IS NOT A PAWN, GUYS). Then the most recent example: Chilly brings Moss to the Vikings, and when Moss gives a press conference in which some could infer that Bill Belichick runs a better program than Brad Childress (WHAAAAAAAA?!?!?), Moss is cut from the team as “not the kind of player we want”. Make no mistake; using that press conference as an example of Moss being bad for the team is like going for a swim and complaining about it being wet. To borrow from Chris Rock: Randy Moss didn’t go crazy; Randy Moss went Randy Moss.

In the end, this wasn’t as much about undermining the team as it was about undermining Brad Childress and the way his world works. The problem is that Childress’s world, in which his authority reigns supreme as he tries to discover how he should govern, has never existed in the NFL. You either earn credibility by winning without known stars in order to leverage that credibility to control them (as Belichick has done with success), or you accept that outrageous personalities may not accept tight management from someone they don’t revere (Rex Ryan is sort of pulling this off, and Gruden did this in Tampa Bay). You don’t get to do both, though, which is what Chilly is trying to pull here. You can’t be unwilling to earn cred while complaining that players who have don’t pay homage. The result here is akin to the Emperor’s New Clothes if people told the emperor he was naked and he responded by having them executed. In trying to impose his own authority on the team, Childress has lost any ability to establish his identity on the team. It’s embarrassing that in the end, after all of the players who have shouldered the blame for Brad Childress’s Vikings failing to achieve at their talent level, the most difficult personality for the Vikings to deal with, and the one that brings his career down, is his own.

Empire Football Podcast Season 2, Episode 6

2010-10-23T12:23:00.003-04:00

It's a very special episode this week, as we debate who is winning the divisions (which is in no way ridiculously premature), go through the rundown, and get real about helmet-to-helmet hits (WE ARE SERIOUS!). Teetering on the edge of legitimacy? Maybe...just barely.

Stream or download this puppy and let us know what you think.

The Hangover 2010 - Week 6

2010-10-21T14:18:00.002-04:00

- Look, nobody was happy with that Jets win, but of the myriad ways to define a team as “great”, isn’t one time tested route to see what happens when they have a bad day? Well, on Mark Sanchez’s worst day so far, the Jets managed to pull out a 24-20 win. We can debate the amount of penalization resulting from pass interference (although that was clearly interference), but with the rules being what they are, the Jets gutted a win out in a close road game, marking the second win in a row that looked like a reversal of the “classic close Jets loss.” Of the three clearly defined “elites” (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and the Jets), the role of lingering threat seems to suit the Jets nicely, as they have the youth and unpredictability to get caught off guard, but the talent to make up for their mistakes before a game is lost.

- I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: The Packers don’t have the ground game to take advantage of their high power aerial attack (a pathetic 17 carries for 62 yards on Sunday). As such, they are neither able to keep teams honest on defense, nor able to protect the kinds of leads their offensive tools inevitably provide (case in point: they held the ball for just 28 minutes to Miami’s 38). The resulting tension seems utterly at odds with the philosophy of freedom and happiness as form to which this collection of talents would seem best suited. That’s the thing about football; unlike other sports, there must be central principles. Oriented around those principles, there is freedom to create (a freedom that, as readers of this blog know, we feel is grossly overlooked). That said, the absence of these founding principles is the quintessential “house on the sand” story, all pride and show without any staying power. I’m afraid we’re watching this iteration of the Packers get washed out to sea, particularly having lost dynamic playmaker Jermichael Finley to injury.

- I like Sam Bradford (18/31, 198 yards, 1 TD on Sunday). Against the top passing defense in the league, and with Danario Alexander as his top receiving target (aside from NFL Street Legend Steven Jackson), Bradford managed to attack without pressing or turning the ball over. In fact, can we agree that this is one of the two or three most impressive showings for a rookie QB in the last five years? Matt Ryan’s compares, but I would argue that Bradford is doing more with less, and shows a patience that his offensive line shouldn’t afford him, the mark that “the game slows down” for him, which is as much a real development step as it is a Jaws cliché. Given legitimate top flight receiver and an offensive line, couldn’t this unit turn scary quicker than anybody thought? That’s the beauty of toiling in obscurity; if it doesn’t crush you, it only further establishes your talent.

- On the flip side of the coin, at what point to the Chargers believe in the system that has made them a playoff team for the last couple of years and stop playing like a team that needs to panic when they’re down? Giving Ryan Matthews just 12 carries when he’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry is the height of reactionary foolishness. We asked in the last Hangover if the Chargers’ rival, the Colts, was a team that didn’t believe in their greatness, but that looks more and more like the result of little, well hidden problems. With the Chargers, it really does feel like a confidence issue. In essence, this team is playing its own dysfunction as much as it is playing its opponents, and too often their decision is to play like a one dimensional team, using Rivers as a crutch instead of a unique weapon. You have to solve the Rubik’s Cube before you compete to show you can do it better than others, Norv Turner.

- I genuinely believe that the Ravens are a great team, but they played to avoid an embarrassing loss instead of playing to win, which is the mark of everything that is wrong with this team. All of their offseason moves still haven’t given them the ability to crush their opponents. Boldin is a beautiful, useful tool, but he isn’t going to punish entire defenses the way a Megatron or Andre Johnson can, and nobody else in this receiving corps appears ready to stretch defensive schemes. The stubborn decision to run 28 times when the Patriots were so clearly committed to keeping Ray Rice contained was the mark of a team that still feels like it doesn’t belong. If the NFC is suffering for lack of clear separation between the elites and the mediocre, the AFC is suffering for its elites refusing to play to their strengths, instead choosing to play “right way” football. The fact that the Ravens, who have as strange and wonderful an array of offensive talent as any roster in the league, insist on doing this is just heartbreaking for anybody waiting to see a team take control of the direction of the league.

- I love the Randy Moss move, if only because it returns Bill Belichick to his comfort zone of overachieving hunter. What I didn’t expect, however, was that it might have bought him more time on this borrowed season. The Ravens looked genuinely confused as to how they were supposed to cover this offense, and the result was five different receivers putting up 20 yards or more against one of the stingiest defenses in the league. The inscrutable fog offense is better suited to this team’s talent level, as opposed to the more talented and clearly defined offense built around Moss, and it gives this team an unpredictability that could buy them the extra 2-3 wins they need to make the playoffs.

- Act like Mike Williams isn’t a cool redemption story out in Seattle. It’s bizarre to see someone find their physical gifts so this late in their career, and speaks volumes about what wasn’t being done for him in Detroit and Tennessee. Meanwhile, in Seattle, he’s proof that coaching based on trust and support can be just as effective, if not more effective, than beating the talent out of a player. Strange that so many teams need talent at receiver, and so few teams were willing to invest the time and patience that it takes to get a player like Williams to play up to his obvious physical talent.

- We’re light on stats so far, so here’s one I find as interesting as anything going on in the NFL right now: The 1-5 Browns have lost only one game by more than 10 points (Sunday’s Steelers game, in which rookie Colt McCoy started his first NFL game), and two games by a field goal or less. Also worth noting: They’re starting Seneca Wallace in a decidedly non-Seneca Wallace offense, and he’s throwing to Ben Watson and a bunch of receivers who wouldn’t crack the top two WR spots on any other NFL team. Finally, despite being at the bottom of the barrel according to their record, the Browns are the 20th ranked passing offense, 22nd ranked rushing offense, 21st ranked pass defense, and 23rd ranked rush defense. They are decidedly mediocre despite a record and reputation that says they are awful. All of this is to say something that I can’t believe I’m saying after watching him work in New York: Eric Mangini is doing a very good job coaching this team beyond its very limited potential. Whether that sort of “Old Man and the Sea” commitment to bringing things in respectably should be rewarded with another year to try and add success to improvement is a tougher call (personally, despite the glaring misses on adding a WR, I’d say he gets one more year), but it at least deserves recognition.

- Not sure why everyone is acting talking about how the AFC West doesn’t have a clear favorite; the Chiefs are the truth. Matt Cassel has the physical ability to do what he did on Sunday (20/29, 201 yards and 3 TD) against just about any opponent (the New England season was a lot of system, but not ALL system). Dwyane Bowe is a big body and a smart receiver, and his recent rash of drops seems more like an aberration than a persistent condition. Todd Haley is helming the best rushing offense in the league, and his pass attack is only going to get better as Cassel and Bowe play to their strengths. Considering how tragically flawed everybody else in the division looks (yes, the Chargers are flawed, both in their special teams problems and in NOT HAVING THEIR BEST RECEIVER FOR HALF OF THE SEASON), why would we bet against a team that is turning speed into violence on a regular basis? Besides, EVERYBODY in that division is losing to the Colts and Texans. Bank on it.

- This is going to be another one of those seasons where we need to take Megatron’s yardage and multiply it by three to get an honest sense of how good he is. Quick, who is the worst QB to throw passes to Calvin Johnson: Drew Stanton, Jon Kitna, Shaun Hill, Drew Henson, Dan Orlovsky, or latter day Daunte Culpepper?

- How do we all feel about Eli Manning? For all the talk about his brother being a quiet superstar interested in nothing but winning, the media blitz that followed Peyton’s Super Bowl win certainly established him as an individual superstar with a natural gift for PR savvy. Eli, on the other hand, is becoming something of a rock for the Giants to build upon. Never the star on his own team, Eli has as many Super Bowl wins as Favre or Peyton (and was at least as responsible for that playoff run as his defense…a fact people forget all too easily). Even now, having faded into the media background, Eli has thrown as many touchdowns (10) as all but three quarterbacks in the league, and is tied with the likes of Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Aaron Rodgers, with just one more interception (8) than Romo or Rodgers. Considering that his pass game lacks the truly phenomenal athlete that Rodgers has had in Finley (up until now) and Romo has throughout his offense, isn’t it time that we at least start talking about Eli as the franchise centerpiece for the Giants instead of a nice sideshow to the defense’s main event? I love Hakeem Nicks (again, he plays bigger and faster than his measureable traits indicate), but I almost feel as though Eli is making Nicks into a great receiver in the same way other elite quarterbacks have turned good talents (such as Donald Driver or Deion Branch) into stars. In the end, despite being in a city made of flash bulbs, it’s looking like Eli Manning is becoming the unheralded, consistent workhorse of his quarterback contemporaries, and his virtual asceticism toward publicity is as much a part of his style as it has been of his substance. Name five other contemporary quarterbacks who would have the success Eli has had with the receivers he’s had, if you think I’m wrong.

- Told you so about the Falcons not being able to hang with truly explosive teams. I. TOLD. YOU. SO. Next up, losses to the Bengals and the Bucs. I don’t hate the team, but I do hate the lack of any flare whatsoever; it’s no way to live.

- No, I’m not done supporting the Bucs, but I do think that my expectations need to be tempered to match a secondary that isn’t ready to do the work that their total lack of a run game is forcing them to do. That’s the danger of the way this team is built, with all explosion on offense and very little to slow the game down to a manageable pace when things get crazy: That sort of energy either burns hot or runs totally cold. The Bucs on Sunday looked like Barthe’s jilted lover, too stunned to respond to the world that the Saints were building around them.

- I thought I was going to do great things coming out of college. The lack of early success that followed was evidence of a lack of understanding of how the world worked and personal problems I didn’t fully recognize. I also had my emotional and mental health completely shredded thanks to a variety of poor choices and less than healthy professional and personal relationships. Now that I’m trying to actually get some traction going in a positive direction, every single failure feels like a return to that awful time in my life, and is scrutinized as such by people who don’t really get what it’s like to fail at great expectations, get another chance to make something of yourself, and struggle on that road to redemption. What I’m saying is this: I get Alex Smith. That doesn’t mean his isn’t unbelievable frustrating to support, but I get him. I’m willing to bet more of us get him than would care to admit.

- Vikings to win the NFC North. They get better every week, they still get the Bears (and their generous offensive line) twice, and that offense is going to be a war machine as Favre gets used to his injuries and Sidney Rice recovers.

- You just felt like Donovan McNabb didn’t have a chance at the end of that Redskins-Colts game, right? Has this guy ever been a guy you want in the clutch? Yes, it’s ridiculous to reduce an amazing career to one consistent failing, but that consistent failing certainly needs to be considered as a defining characteristic when it so heavily influences wins and losses.

- All of my rowdy friends were not pleased that they had to watch a Trent Edwards vs. Kerry Collins showdown in Jacksonville.

That’s all for this week. Be following us on @titraffic on twitter for consistent goodness, and we’ll have another post and a podcast up tomorrow.

Empire Football Podcast Season 2, Episode 5

2010-10-15T16:39:00.002-04:00

It's a long one this week, but that's because it's so GOOD (that, and our editing software was a victim of the computer crisis that shot all of the posts for this week). This week, we bury Carson Palmer, praise Mark Sanchez, and support the troops (yes, we really do that). Download or stream this puppy here, or find us on iTunes.

Return to the Wilderness

2010-10-07T17:30:00.002-04:00

Since 2007, Bill Belichick has represented something of a devil for me as a football fan. Everything about his team seemed to radiate from him as a coach; the Pats were entitled, utterly unaware of their negative qualities, and joyless. This has resulted in something of a crisis of conscience for me this season, when the team has brought in talent I genuinely like, and has taken a very different tone in their play. Monday night, however, I realized that the river may, in fact, have been flowing in reverse for the last few years, showing me how I could finally resolve my love of Belichick as a football strategist with the years of dislike of him as an emblem of his team. Watching him celebrate openly with his Patriots as they won a divisional battle against a hated rival, the bloodless, stoic expectation of victory was replaced by a coach who seemed to genuinely enjoy being surprised by his team. That, then, is the difference; these Patriots are something of a return to happier, if less easy days for Bill Belichick, letting him finally enjoy the thrill of becoming great through your own, long work, instead of the less satisfying condition of greatness by instantaneous partnership.

That’s a long, convoluted way of saying that the Moss-Belichick partnership was both incredibly profitable and incredibly uncomfortable for Bill Belichick. Here was a man whose whole rise to prominence was the result of making smart personnel decisions to find hidden gems and fitting role players perfectly into a system tailored to maximize their strengths. In Moss, however, he had something he’d never had before: A ready made superstar, one that had nothing to do with Belichick’s scouting, coaching, or scheming. The crazy thing was that it fit perfectly. The one thing Belichick never had, not even during his dynasty years, was an elite talent at wide receiver (Branch was good, but unquestionably a receiver that Brady made great). Now, Moss, along with a beautifully crafted offensive system by Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady at quarterback, allowed Belichick to coast, something that hadn’t previously been the case.

The problem is that coasting comes with expectations. Whatever rush there had been to arrive at the top of the NFL was now replaced with a weight, the knowledge that every victory would be less thrilling because it was supposed to happen. The result was a coach too smart to show when he was upset and too proud to show when he was happy with the results. All of this made Monday night’s outgoing show of joy that much more interesting. With a team filled with youth, and more on the way, Belichick seems to be getting back to his roots, creating in his own vision rather than building on that which has already been realized.

The result is the Randy Moss trade. Nobody will argue that the Patriots won’t suffer in the short term for losing Moss, who is still one of maybe two receivers who can make the catches he does while still blowing teams away with his speed and agility (Megatron, the spotlight is yours now). Still, watching Belichick laugh and slap the helmets of his young, much maligned defenders, it’s hard to not think that if the team has become a bit less imposing (again, in the short term), it has also become a bit easier to relate to. Since 2007, the Patriots have felt like they’d “arrived”, which is much less interesting than watching a team that isn’t fully formed find its identity. Now, with a group of still-forming athletic talents, a couple of old veteran role players (Welker could be more, but I think he becomes more limited without Moss), and the one constant that has been there the whole time (if he and Brady don’t give each other’s hall of fame speeches, I’ll be stunned), he’s free to create a new chapter to his legacy. In essence, he gets to showcase how hard he works, and how brilliantly he schemes, instead of having us all just take it for granted thanks to a fully formed, dominant team. We have come to mock Parcells for his inability to remain in any one place, but maybe we’re seeing in Belichick something of the constant need for validation, a feeling that is much more relatable than we care to admit, that has driven both student and teacher to their respective points. It’s a return to harmony, something that gives a shibui resulting from understanding to Belichick’s disciplinarian demeanor.

The Hangover 10-6-2010

2010-10-06T16:21:00.003-04:00

- 3-0 in the division, with the one loss coming from a bizarre meltdown of coaching by Schotty. Oh,and next week, we’re all getting introduced to Santonio Holmes. You can keep talking like this is some win ugly team, but the Jets have more offensive weaponry than anyone else in their division, including the heralded Pats offense.

- What is going on in New Orleans part 1: Don’t underestimate how serious that Reggie Bush injury is. We’ve touched on before, but for all of the talk about Bush being a draft bust, or an overpaid spot back, anybody who has watched Sean Payton work knows that on the Saints, particularly these Saints, he’s something much more valuable. The refrain of “teams are taking the deep ball away from Drew Brees” is one that Reggie Bush is tailor made to prevent in this offense by moving around in different formations, keeping the defensive secondary honest by virtue of their being the only unit speedy enough to keep up with him. Payton has succeeded not so much because of talent as because of deceptive creativity; without Bush, this offensive roster, however talent laden it may be, becomes much more straightforward.

- What is going on in New Orleans part 2: “Teams are taking the deep ball away from Drew Brees” is the kind of thing you say about a team that relies on a system for its success. For the past several years, that has been the way the Saints have grown, and it’s the reason they finally won their Super Bowl last year. This season, however, it’s something that belongs on a still developing team (the Broncos, for example). The fact is that this team was a DeAngelo Williams brain fart away from losing two in a row in their division. This Saints team is too talented at their individual positions for opponents to be able to “figure them out”. At some point, Sean Payton needs to be willing to let his individual stars (of which I count at least three, and potentially four) shine as individual talents. Yes, the system to carry all of these talents as equally potent weapons was great, but this year, teams are expecting it and, as mentioned above, Reggie Bush isn’t around to facilitate its versatility. So would it be so crazy to game plan around two, or even one talent at a time? Why not build a game around Colston as the focus, with the other players spending the entire game taking advantage of the coverage he draws when teams adjust? Why not build a plan around Shockey crushing safeties, and then letting the receivers run wild in the single coverage that results? To arrive, Sean Payton had to synthesize his team’s outliers into one vision; this is the year to embrace a diversity of perspectives contributing to a single direction.

- I like that Jimmy Clausen played a clean game, particularly against a Saints defense that is built around creating turnovers with chaos. I’m generally a believer that if a young quarterback loses without throwing a pick, he’s not actually trying to win, but here, it was a restraint that demonstrates a desire to learn how to function at his position and an understanding of the setting, particularly with this receiving corps (which lost Steve Smith fairly early). Hell, he almost won a game this team had no business being in.

- Why I think the Lions are the best 0-4 team in the league: They got screwed in week 1 (19-14 to Chicago), lost to Michael Vick in week 2 (35-32), caught Adrian Peterson on his best day (24-10), and just lost by 2 to a Green Bay team people think could win it all (28-26). Oh, and they’ve done all of this with Shaun Hill as their quarterback because their starter Matt Stafford injured his shoulder in the first half of the season. That’s right, NFL Europe Champion Shaun Hill. Meanwhile, Calvin Johnson looks every bit as dominant as he should (if only someone would mention this to Jim Schwartz), Tony Scheffler has given them a truly scary vertical receiver at TE, and Jahvid Best is looking a lot like Reggie Bush (though that does continue for many negative qualities as well). At this point, the Stafford injury is pushing this team from absurd into Sisyphean territory, something much darker. The only solace is that one more high draft pick could yield the offensive tackle this team desperately needs. But damn…it would have been nice to see these guys take a reassuring step forward this year.

- I don’t buy the Packers for one second. That offensive line is still suspect, and they can’t run the ball. All the early leads in the world are vapors if you can’t work the clock to hold on to them.

- That’s the kind of win that goes a long way toward getting me back on board with the Broncos system. Yes, this team is far from complete; the interior blocking is a mess, their pass catchers are still growing, and the pass rush isn’t getting enough pressure on opponents. Still, there is a lot to like here. Orton is the perfect distributor for these receivers, none of whom are marquee names and all of whom are deadlier for it (though I say again: Bey Bey is going to make that team forget about Brandon Marshall in a hurry). They have two running backs capable of being deadly as pass catchers and speedsters out of the backfield (yes, Maroney is one of them). If they can make a couple of smart defensive draft picks this offseason, all they need to be is solid on that side of the ball to make for a hell of a matchup. I’m generally not a fan of the total absorption of talents into a system, but this roster is young enough to come of age in a system as disciplined as McDaniels and still maximize their potential in it. It’s more dojo than prison.

- Eddie Royal is the cobra. It’s lost some hype as a killer, but it can still sneak in and do just as much damage as it could when it was better known.

- We’ll talk more about this, but the Marshawn Lynch trade is HUGE. Gives that team a legitimate power back, and we’ve all forgotten that there was a time when he rivaled AP as an all around back. Seriously, I might need to start a FREE ALL OF THE BILLS campaign.

- The scary thing is that I’ve never seen a team rally around a coach at home and wilt on the road like the Seahawks. It’s like all of that untapped potential can only get released in an atmosphere of positive thinking. It’s a strange relationship of emotional surroundings and execution.

- Yeah, he had one bad pick, but every time I watch Sam Bradford work I get a little more impressed with his patience and appreciation for finding the right moment to make the throw. That long screen pass to Steven Jackson to set up a touchdown was placed perfectly in a pretty tight window, and created the long run that followed as much as Jackson’s speed did.

- I mean, if you doubted that Joe Flacco was a war machine, you didn’t watch that year when he beat the Steelers twice in the regular season, only to have the refs take it away on terrible calls. Also, THAT strikes me as how you challenge the Steelers: Mobility in the pocket, and double moves into the secondary. You’re not beating them up front, but if you have the receivers, they can get shaken over the top (but you need at least two…otherwise Polamalu is ruining your day). Anyway, Flacco’s throw to Housh to win the game was exactly the kind of take-it-all ball that he was built to throw, and Housh (who had a solid 3 catches for 49 yards) was brought in to catch (once Stallworth went down). If they actually are developing chemistry, this offense may have developed the outlying orbit that it needs to function ideally.

- I had a talk with someone who explained how thrilled they were that Michael Vick’s return to form had been halted by injury, and I got angry, because some people just don’t get that Vick’s already gotten his due. Then I sighed, realized I’m not gonna handle this well, and chalked it up to life being unfair. Damn.

- As weird as they’ve looked the San Diego Chargers are the 3rd best passing team, the 10th best rushing team (and Matthews is heating up), the 4th best team against the pass, and the 7th best team against the run. As Rivers gets more comfortable without Jackson, and as a still young secondary improves, this team is shaping up to be a scary playoff opponent. That said, I’d like to see them put up some numbers on a team that’s actually good, instead of losing to teams that actually aren’t.

- Spoiler alert: Max Hall is Brady Quinn.

- The most ridiculous “that was Jay Cutler’s fault” comment I heard all week came from Trent Dilfer, who called Jay Cutler the new Jeff George. Hey, Trent, you know who the new Trent Dilfer is? Jake Delhomme. Thank goodness Cutler’s brain was too swollen for him to hear Trent say that.

- Oh, and maybe somebody should have thought of taking him out and tweaking the plan after sack number five.

- Wait, I’m confused, is it better to have a mediocre quarterback who has thrown 5 TD and 4 INT in his third year, or a second year QB who has thrown 8 TD and 0 INT. Seriously, enough with the Chad Henne talk, Miami fans.

- Meanwhile, the real question is why the Dolphins insist on proving to us that Chad Henne is the future of their offense, neglecting the run in the process. Ricky Williams was tearing the Patriots front seven apart, and he only got 8 carries! On what planet is that an intelligent game plan? For all the talk about the Jets being frauds in the offseason, I think we can all see what I’ve been saying since they made the Brandon Marshall trade: This Miami team isn’t much better than last year’s version.

- Look, Alex Smith played a bad game, and unfortunately Singletary doesn’t have anybody ready to step in and helm the offense more competently (though I stand by Troy Smith, who should get the nod if he’s even close to up on the system). Still, you can’t look at that loss and not blame Singletary, and you’re justified in wondering whether or not he’s the right man for the job. Singletary can’t claim the position under the banner of disciplinarian and then not take the brunt of the blame when Nate Clements loses that fumble purely due to a lack of discipline. Things don’t get much easier over the next two weeks, and I certainly wouldn’t like to see Troy Smith lost in another coaching staff shuffle…but if these 49ers start 0-6, you have to fire Singletary. When you lose so poorly, and in so many ways, with so much talent, the coach needs to pay the piper, or you risk losing your team to the mediocrity of a man clinging to his career.

- Yes, Jack Del Rio fans (who do not exist), that last bit was aimed at your team. If he keeps his job by eeking out 8-8 thanks to that Colts loss…just ugh…

- Jim Caldwell playing for the win instead of going to OT shows how little trust he has in his defense (which makes sense) or his offense’s chemistry (which is absolutely ridiculous). He let two mistakes (the bobbled INT and the Wayne fumble) convince him that the Jaguars could sneak up and steal one in OT. The truth, however, is that the Colts did a decent job on MJD (holding him to just 4 yards per carry) and only got caught in the end by newly discovered mismatch at TE Marcedes Lewis (who I’d be happier for if he wasn’t coached by Neanderthal Jack). Great teams believe they can get one defensive stop and turn that into points, which is a win in OT. For some reason, the Colts don’t look convinced that they’re a great team, but rather one that needs to win by craft instead of potency. Strange.

- Oh, and David Garrard played a perfect David Garrard game (17/22, 163 yards, 2 TD, no turnovers). The two times he’s done that, the Jaguars have beaten two teams significantly more talented than they are.

- I hate the way that the Browns have decided to limit Seneca Wallace as a dynamic athlete, and am convinced that it’s primarily an excuse to go back to Delhomme, but that was a well run game against the Bengals. Sensing Palmer had the hot hand, they let Peyton Hillis grind the clock down (27 carries for 102 yards and a TD), and limited their mistakes (An aside: That Seneca INT was a classic Seneca INT, in that it hit the receiver in the hands and was pretty much bobbled right into the defender’s hands. We need a stat to show when an INT is on the receiver and not the QB…Seneca would be the all time leader in this category.). The result was a win over a team that is much, much, MUCH more talented than the Browns. If Mangini and Daboll (the worst offensive coordinator in football, now that Jimmy Raye is gone) could actually game plan for Seneca Wallace as an athletic QB instead of plugging him into the Jake Delhomme show, the Browns could win a lot more than anybody thinks they should (like those first three games, for example). I’ll say it again: A coach as smart as Mangini should understand the value of winning with the team you have instead of planning to win with the team you don’t. Such a waste of so many strange football talents (and from Watson to Wallace to Cribbs, there is a LOT of undervalued talent on that roster).

That's all this week. Be sure to follow us on twitter at @titraffic, and check back tomorrow for our thoughts on this Randy Moss madness (AND A BONUS POST ON MARSHAWN LYNCH BECAUSE WHAT THE HELL ARE WE JUST NOT GONNA ACKNOWLEDGE HOW GOOD HE WAS?).

Empire Football Podcast Season 2, Episode 3

2010-09-30T18:47:00.002-04:00

This week on the podcast, we talk about whether or not the Bears are real, we lament the demise of the 49ers (or, as Mac would put it, we launch the fireworks for the Chiefs), play "Diagnosis Football" with a couple of ailing teams and players, and basically lose our minds during the Rundown. It's my party, and I'll talk football if I want to.

Download all the fun HERE.

The Hangover 9-29-2010

2010-09-29T17:14:00.003-04:00

Sorry for the delay, but this one is a doozy...

- I’m not sure what can be said about the 49ers at this point. Certainly, a lot of blame has been rightly put on Jimmy Raye, an offensive coordinator who stubbornly refused to take his myriad targets and spread the field, trusting Alex Smith to buy Frank Gore room to move in the defensive front with the pass game. Still, this whole thing feels…off. Vernon Davis getting just 6 targets in a game in which the Chiefs jumped out to an early lead seems like a mistake. Worse still was the defense’s inability to put real pressure on Matt Cassel, who has been flustered under pressure all year, with 0 sacks on the day. In the end, though, you have to wonder if it might be time to move on from Alex Smith. This team is too talented at its offensive skill positions for Alex Smith to be playing with this little confidence (Note to anyone considering Mike Nolan as a head coach: He still hasn’t lived this down, and this team’s stagnation for the last few years is as much on him as anybody else). Smith’s inability to take advantage of good single coverage matchups has shut down Frank Gore’s ground game, which has, in turn, further limited Smith’s options, which was supposed to be the greatest strength this offense had. In the end, a move to a new offense, helmed by a new quarterback (FREE TROY SMITH) who has the mobility to buy receivers like Crabtree and Davis the extra time or space they clearly need, looks like the only way to really turn things around.

- I’m buying the Chiefs. Say what you will about the lack of marquee names (irrelevant) or the lack of depth at receiver (a deceptive truth), but this team is proving that you can’t teach speed, and enough speed on the offensive side of the ball eventually kills teams that can’t win shootouts or control the clock. Between McCluster and Charles (who combined for 126 yards as a TD through the air, with Charles adding another 97 yards on the ground), the backs can more than make up for the lack of a speed threat at wide receiver, as both are capable of lining up practically anywhere on the field. That trick play that opened Bowe up deep? That’s the start of a beautiful thing if the Chiefs start to realize that a quickness ground game can be just as effective at opening up receivers as one that goes for power between the tackles. Furthermore, that kind of speed means that this offense isn’t a fluke; hell, we may have just seen them play their first truly competent game. Given a bye week to prepare, is it crazy to think this team could steal one from either a Colts team whose zones won’t shift fast enough to keep up or a Texans team whose run defense is slowly getting exposed as suspect, then run the table through a weak November schedule (JAX, BUF, OAK, DEN, ARI, SEA) to enter the last month of their season (and their last three divisional games) with a 10-1 record the opposition can’t catch? Just a great job of matching talent to system, then using both to their full potential.

- Honestly, if you’re the Lions, I think you fire Shaun Hill for the simple fact that he only targeted Calvin Johnson 7 times. Against that undersized, relatively weak secondary, the Lions should have had an aerial field day, with Megatron sitting at the head of the table. Instead, they managed a pedestrian 237 yards and just 1 TD through the air, along with 2 INT. Also, why rush an undersized Jahvid Best into that defensive front at all? A stubborn consistency is what gets coaches fired, Jim Schwartz. I honestly believe this might be the best 0-3 team in football, but at some point, they need to decide to lean heavily on their strengths instead of trying to be some balanced team they simply aren’t equipped to be.

- No, Vikings, you aren’t back. Still, that was a better example of how the game plan should look as long as Sidney Rice is gone.

- How bad is the Patriots secondary? Ryan Fitzpatrick went 20/28 and hung 287 yards and 2 TD on the day. Yes, there were 2 INT to go along with it, but this team has all the earmarks of a secondary that gets killed by bigger deep ball receivers (ahem…JETS). They can take advantage of obvious mistakes by the quarterback, but if you can isolate them, their physical talent (and make no mistake, those corners, particularly McCourty, all have the physical talent to make life difficult through the air) gets outweighed by a lack of body control and positioning. Throw in an AFC in which the playoff contenders are all sporting oversized deep threats, and this team is going to be asked to win a lot of shootouts. That said, this offense can go with anybody, and if their secondary gets coached up the way Belichick has coached up less gifted players, they’ll be a scary playoff team, but it’s going to be one of the more frantic runs to the playoffs that Pats fans have experienced in the last decade. Whatever the reflection of “grinding it out” is, this is that.

- Look, the franchise is a mess, but there is no way you’re convincing me that releasing Trent Edwards wasn’t the right move for the Bills. Hell, I’d just rotate through QBs all year to see if there was anybody worth getting excited about. Oh, and we’ll discuss this later, but if they take Jake Locker…oh man…we’re gonna need a better word for “bust”.

- How is nobody talking about Gene Smith as a very good coach yet? He worked Sean Payton like a speed bag on Sunday, controlling the clock for almost 46 minutes compared to Payton’s 27. Make no mistake, that Saints are the most talented roster in the NFC South, if not the whole league, but the Falcons (and, to a lesser extent, the 49ers) gave everybody a blueprint for beating them: Control the clock, force them to go entirely vertical by clamping down on the run (this is where the loss of Reggie Bush becomes more important, and punish the offense for being one-dimensional by creating turnovers. No, you’re never going to shut the Saints offense down, but if you can turn their forest fire of an offense into a controlled burn, you can beat them in the last quarter (or OT, as the case was here).

- In fact, looking at that Atlanta roster, and particularly their weak secondary (Dunta Robinson is not scaring anybody), this team has to be one of the better tactical successes of the last few years. After Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, the receiving talent falls off of a cliff, and Ryan still played a consistent, clean game against an opportunistic secondary.

- I can’t get excited about a Titans team that wins thanks to bizarre turnovers and gutless play calling. That may fly against the Giants, but at some point, particularly later in the year, teams are going to force VY to open things up for Johnson through the air, and instead of building towards that, Fisher seems to be hoping for lightning in a bottle when the pressure is on. That isn’t a plan to win; it’s a plan to survive, which is a total waste of the southpaw style of offense the Titans are capable of delivering.

- That loss does nothing to temper my excitement about the Bucs. First of all, the Steelers may have the best defense in the league right now, or at least the best that people are inexplicably terrified to go all in against through the air (seriously, everybody, you’re not opening up the pass with the run against these guys, so stop trying). Second, the Bucs defense was adjusting to the loss of starting safety Tanard Jackson, who is helpful to a young defensive front in run support. Third, that loss finally got Raheem Morris to realize what the rest of us knew all along: He’s probably not winning it all this year anyway, so why not see what kind of talent he’s got with Freeman throwing to both Mike Williams AND Arrelious Benn, who is finally practicing with the first team and put up 33 yards on 3 catches on Sunday. The whole reason this team has been catching both opponents and football fans off guard is their unpredictability by virtue of their youth, and Benn is yet another athletic prodigy who, with discipline and coaching, could become a mismatch generating weapon on this Bucs offense. With a year of strong coaching and development, the weapons that are already on this team could be nightmarish for defenders and offensive lines next year, and with another strong draft this team could be as complete as any roster in football, and with more dangerous talents, too.

- Here’s my pitch for why you don’t pull Carson Palmer, who looks like one of the worst quarterbacks in football, and with one of the best receiving rosters around him: Inexplicably, this team trusts him to turn it around, and with this offensive roster that trust is worth more than whatever minor uptick in stats the available replacements might give you. While they’re finding ways to win in spite of Palmer, the receivers haven’t turned on him at all, a fact made more remarkable considering the ages and personality types in this corps. If he can even approach average, the Bengals are going to be a much scarier team on offense, and history tells us that he can do at least that much. Meanwhile, pulling him sets his replacement, and the team as a whole, up for the kind of turmoil that actually ruins seasons. While the team might be unwilling to throw a veteran presence like Carson Palmer under the bus, a younger quarterback would get eaten alive by virtue of his lack of standing in the league and the locker room. That sort of problem plays itself out in disruptive disorganization on the field, and leads to teams losing the sort of close calls that the Bengals have managed to eek out over the last two weeks. If there were a stronger, veteran option available, things might be different, but in this case, there’s something to be said for letting the win-loss column determine whether or not the team should let Carson Palmer work his issues out on the field.

- Just once, I wish a solid Seneca Wallace (18/24, 1 TD, no turnovers) stat line would coincide with a team victory, but I suppose that’s asking a lot for a team whose best receiving threat (unless you count Josh Cribbs) is a very good second banana, and whose coach seems content to run a game plan that aims to finish close, and maybe even eek out a win, but never impose its will on a team. Yes, that last bit was harsh on Mangini, who has done a very good job on the personnel front, but it’s worth pointing out that Cribbs was run out of the backfield (where he’s been most dangerous, particularly in tandem with the equally speedy Wallace) for just two attempts and 20 yards, Wallace’s wheels have pretty much been tethered to the backfield (1 rush for 0 yards), and MoMass was targeted just once. I’d understand the hesitation to put together a truly unique game plan built around a lineup that is at once deeply flawed and uniquely gifted if the Browns were supposed to contend for a playoff spot, or even if a stronger, more evenly talented quarterback was coming back as the starter, but that’s not the case here. The Browns only have a shot at scaring teams if they try something truly different with that roster, and anybody who thinks Delhomme gives the Browns a better, or even equal chance of winning has forgotten the last year, including his opening day start for the Browns. I had hoped that, along with his deceptively smart personnel moves, Mangini would be more open to embracing a “win at all costs” mentality, one that provides the only path to victory available for the talent he has. Defensively, he’s taken that step; offensively, he’s scared to pull the trigger, a fact that is all the more disappointing considering how close this team has come to winning for three weeks running.

- I feel like the light switched on for the Cowboys, who finally realized, three quarters into what could have been their third straight loss, that they have the kind of passing weapons that every other team in the league wishes they had.

- Steven Jackson is joining Steve Smith in my hall of NFL street legends. 10 carries for 58 yards against an underrated defensive front that was daring Bradford to throw is impressive, and he’s been putting up rushing numbers like that since he arrived, with even worse passing games supporting him. If you watched that TD run, you understand that he’s in contention for the best combination of speed and power at running back in the last 5 years.

- Also, I’m starting to dig Bradford as a quarterback. He’s the good kind of patient, buying time with his legs for his reads to develop (as opposed to standing and waiting in the pocket), and not heaving the ball into any coverage he sees fit.

- I’m sticking with my pick of the Eagles winning the NFC East. Vick is playing smart while remaining unafraid to keep defenders scared of his wheels, and those skill positions are too fast not to get open with the time Vick buys them with his feet. Throw in a defense that is forcing opponents to play a slower game against the Eagles shoot-em-up style (7th against passing yards, and that includes games against air-it-out monsters Detroit and Green Bay), and the Eagles are too fast to defend comfortably, and too scary defensively to strike back at quickly. The beauty of the new Michael Vick is that he’s always had the weapon of his athleticism, but now it’s a scalpel as opposed to a machete, cutting only what he wants and leaving no collateral damage to the team.

- With Moreno injured, the Broncos offense has become unbalanced to the point of spectacle. Orton going 37/57 for 476 yards through the air while the ground game averages just 2.6 yards per carry on 18 carries goes beyond playing to your strengths and into ignoring your weaknesses out of spite. Balance is a terrible goal for an NFL coach to have, but it’s a necessary guidepost to prevent a team from becoming totally irrelevant. Also, somebody should probably have stepped in to cover Austin Collie (12 catches for 171 yards and 2 TD) by catch number 6.

- Darren McFadden has quietly turned a corner in his first three games. He’s averaged 5.3, 4.8, and 4.2 yards per carry in each game, with at least 95 yards each time, finally finding the end zone in this last start against the Cardinals. If the Raiders hadn’t beaten themselves with the kicking game, they’d be 2-1 right now, with two games to play against the 3-0 Chiefs. Just remember, it’s a long season, and Chaz Schilens is still getting healthy, meaning that run lanes are only going to get more open for McFadden, who has shown the burst that made his speed so deadly in college, and has been an apt receiver this year. Maybe the three year learning curve applies to RB/WR hybrids as well.

- Oh, and I told you so about DHB. Hell, he’s even proving me right about being better than Crabtree this year.

- We can act surprised all we want, but the Chargers have never been a particularly disciplined team; they’ve just had the high power offense to make up for their failings in other aspects of the game. Hmm…what changed this year…who could possibly be missing…what player that this team was so convinced it could leave behind that they pushed him to the point of refusing to ever play for them again could I be thinking of…

- Also, that game made me miss Neon Leon.

- My favorite part of this Chicago Bears phenomenon is that Jay Cutler and Mike Martz, whose irritable personalities have alienated most fans, just might be proving each other right with their play. Martz is giving Cutler the sort of bombs away game plan his arm was designed for, and Cutler is giving Martz the kind of daring mixed with accuracy that his game plan requires. The result is the fifth best pass offense in the league without a single elite wide receiver, and Cutler being in the same statistical category through three games as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. For the record, he’s statistically better than the last two, and I wouldn’t trade any of their top four receivers for any one of Cutler’s (with the POSSIBLE exception of Greg Olsen).

- It’s crass to brag, but let’s just look at the numbers: Mark Sanchez was 15/28 for 256 yards, 3 TD, and no INT. Chad Henne was 26/44 for 363 yards, 2TD, and 1 INT. Oh, and one of those Henne touchdowns (along with 166 of his passing yards) went to a top flight physical receiver being covered by a number two corner. The comparison is OVER, people; at this point, the Dolphins are just getting in their own way (Brown and Williams had just 18 carries despite averaging over 4 yards per carry combined) to try and prove a point.

Whew. That’s all for this week. Follow us on twitter at @titraffic, and we’ll try to get more up this week. A podcast is forthcoming, as is a preview section, and maybe even a little something on the Browns (because I know WHAT DRAWS RATINGS!!!).

The Ones That Matter - 9-26-2010

2010-09-25T18:05:00.003-04:00

All the games that really matter; three sentences worth of description.

49ers @ Chiefs (1:00 PM, Sunday)

Mike Singletary is exactly the kind of coach the 49ers need to turn talented underachievers into a high functioning team built on maximizing the talents of individuals plagued by a variety of discipline issues. Still, if he can’t get his staff, which is unfortunately all the wrong kinds of “old school,” to start rolling with the new in its game planning, this highly talented team is going to walk into a hostile stadium and lose to a team that, though significantly strapped for talent, is finding ways to win. This team’s talent will either crush its opponents, or its coaches, and this week will be a major factor in determining which is going to be the result.

Lions @ Vikings (1:00 PM, Sunday)

First, they ran into officials that they couldn’t rely on to do their jobs. Next, they ran into a player they couldn’t possibly imagine playing the way he’s playing. This week, however, the Lions either prove their raw, angry physicality is evolving into a cohesive plan of attack, or they’re a pleasant sideshow that loses well.

Buccaneers @ Steelers (1:00 PM, Sunday)

One team’s swagger comes from a history intertwined with that of the league itself, the presence of Noll and Cowher looming large over the sidelines. The other has the kind of swagger the only comes from not having been around long enough to know any better. Steal a third win from the kings of the old guard, Tampa, and the fever dream gets to last longer than anyone could have imagined.

Jets @ Dolphins (8:20 PM, Sunday)

You’re either a real villain or a schoolyard bully in this league. The bullies fade when you hit them back, while the villains just attack harder, more furiously than before. The Jets are 1-1, and this game gets to be the rubber match on the identity crisis.

Packers @ Bears (8:30 PM, Monday)

Up until now, the Packers have been able to run away from opponents. Against a Bears team whose offense is proving to be just as powerful and versatile, they could have trouble, and you can’t run from trouble. Ain’t no place that far.

Empire Football Podcast Season 2, Episode 2

2010-09-24T13:03:00.004-04:00

Back with almost no popular demand, it's the second episode of season 2 of the Empire Football Podcast. This week, we defend indefensible claims (GAMES!), talk about the Jets (PREMATURE JOY!), and once again attempt to discern where the upsets are coming from this week (LOST MONEY!!!).

Download this puppy here.

The Hangover 9-22-2010

2010-09-22T12:32:00.008-04:00

- The Bucs could give a damn about a five year plan. This team is just talented enough to threaten anybody they play, just unknown enough to be difficult to game plan for, and just young enough to not understand that they shouldn’t be very good right now. Mike Williams is looking more and more like the steal of the draft with a touchdown catch in each game so far, forcing defenses to account for him and free up space for Kellen Winslow (who put up 4 receptions for 83 yards on Sunday, including a crucial 40 yard grab to save a TD drive). Meanwhile, the defense is just punishing teams on the line, with corners just tough enough to stay with receivers long enough for a stunningly athletic front to work. The worst run defense last season, Tampa is the 15th best through two games, with both of those games coming against run heavy teams (Cleveland and Carolina). Most impressive of all is how Josh Freeman looks. The stat line isn’t gaudy (12/24 for 178 yards) but it is effective (2 TD, 0 INT), with a similar stat line in the previous game (but with 1 INT to go with the 2 TD). He’s punishing teams with his athleticism when they ignore that he can run and is difficult to tackle (he’s put up over 30 yards in both of the first two games, showing flashes of Big Ben), and he’s using this knack for knowing when to run to open up single coverage mismatches for his gifted receivers. The end result is a team that is fun to watch because it took calculated gambles over the past two years by drafting raw talent at need positions and throwing them into the fire, and the gambles are actually paying dividends. Hell, Kellen Winslow is the veteran leadership in that locker room; let’s just all agree that applying logic to that would be stupid.

- I’m withholding judgment on Clausen until he gets a week’s worth of work with the first team. He actually looked like he was ready to throw some strikes in the pocket, but that’s a team so drained of receiver talent (aside from Steve Smith) that it might just be a quarterback killer.

- Yeah…I’m really sorry about that whole “But maybe this could be another weirdly good year for Derek Anderson” thing. That’s going on the list of reasons why people will search these archives and realize they should never, ever, ever listen to me.

- It’s also starting to look like the Free Seneca Wallace campaign is going to be on that list as well.

- In all seriousness, I don’t think the Browns are a bad team, just a slow one. The problem with the NFL, however, is that without speed you lose games like the 16-14 matchup with the Chiefs in painful, discouraging ways, as they don’t have the quick strike ability to come back or put easy distance between themselves and a trailing opponent. MoMass, though potentially a strong receiver, is all possession gifts and NO deep threat gifts, which is a problem for a team that insists on using him as their vertical weapon. Brian Robiskie looks like a serviceable slot guy who will make his way all around the league over the course of his career. Perhaps the biggest question I have is this: Why would the Browns insert Seneca Wallace into a game plan built for Jake Delhomme? After all the hype about what this team could do with a Cribbs/Seneca backfield tandem, to watch the Browns come out and try to pocket pass their way to success (something Wallace has done with mediocre success in his career) was a depressing way to limit the most dynamic athletes you have on the team. Worse still, the most exciting offseason acquisition this team made, TE Ben Watson, is being limited to checkdown status when he has the physical ability of an Antonio Gates. The one creative play action pass I saw all day resulted in a beautiful deep TD to Cribbs, who shouldn’t even be the team’s deep threat. In the end, considering how many receivers were on the open market this offseason, and how many were available in the draft, running these pass catchers out there in this scheme for a second straight season is a bigger knock on the front office than anything anybody is saying about Mangini as an in-game coach.

- Sneaking in as the sleeper “horrible move of the offseason” is the decision by the Bengals to not pickup a competent backup to Carson Palmer, who looks absolutely lost in an offense that relies on his ability to read and distribute. It’s a scary thought that someone who looked so good so recently has become a dinosaur, but isn’t that what it feels like? How else do you explain top flight receiving talent failing to find the end zone once, or defenses confidently clamping down on a run game that was one of the league’s best last season. 16/35 for 167 yards is bad, particularly against a so-so secondary, and particularly with that kind of receiving talent. I’ve been saying that Carson has looked shook since his ACL tear, and honestly, this is as good an example of that as the rough years after the injury were. Worse still, leaving themselves with no backup, the Bengals are faced with the daunting task of either finding a downfield threat to open up defenses and create the single coverage necessary to get their elite route runners open, or teaching Carson Palmer, who has always been an artillery gun, to become an automatic weapon. Sad, but it’s why you need to roll with the talent you have rather than force talented pieces into a system they aren’t ideally built to run.

- That said: A win is a win is a win. This Bengals team defense gutted an offense that Baltimore spent a LOT of money on this offseason. In fact, where the Bengals need to learn to become a distribution offense, the Ravens need to learn how to take big shots with the expensive toys they brought into fold. Flacco failed to average more than 10 yards per catch with all but two of his receivers, and only found one in the end zone: Derrick Mason, of course. The problem is that they didn’t bring in Housh (who Flacco failed to find all game), Boldin, who Flacco seems to think is Mark Clayton), or Donte’ Stallworth (unfortunately injured) so that Flacco could reserve the big plays for Derrick Mason and never find anybody else past 9 yards. Either Cam Cameron, who seemed to work wonders with less last season, is scared to get crazy with his war machine of a quarterback and a battery of mismatch creating receivers, or Joe Flacco, when the pressure is on, doesn’t feel comfortable with any of these targets. I’m partial to the latter theory, and it’s because Flacco’s skill set seems built to crush teams over the 10 yard marker regularly, but hasn’t yet been proven effective in the kind of grinding, jab to set the uppercut offense that these personnel are tailor made to run. Told you that Stallworth injury was trouble…

- Quick: Who’s the best quarterback in the league after two games? Jay Cutler. Yeah, the Jay Cutler who was all but written off as dead last year. More remarkable still is that he’s been able to put up quality statistics and minimize turnovers while working in the complete absence of a running game (Forte is averaging 2.9 yards per carry). Certainly, not every team is going to let him fling the ball around the field like the Cowboys did (4 different receivers had 4 or more catches, and the team managed to involve Greg Olsen for a deep TD, a positive sign for Mike Martz). That said, Cutler has managed to make the most of his incredible arm (all but one of his pass catchers are averaging over 10 yards per catch), and is finding ways to use Forte despite the Bears offensive line problems (Forte is the leading receiver with 188 yards and 3 TD). If the defense can hold on to where it is right now (slightly above average at 12th in the league, and after facing two potent offenses), Cutler just might be good enough to make this team better than anybody thought by virtue of its offense, one on which he is the sole shining star. Considering the receivers, running game, and line he has, his statistical position on top of the league seems all the more impressive.

- Meanwhile, look no further than a run game that averaged only 1.8 yards on 20 carries for an explanation as to the Cowboys’ problems. You can work primarily through the air, but unless you’re using the pass to open up the run, meaning that you have a back with the quickness to take advantage of more widely set spreads and open defensive fronts (looking at you, Felix Jones), teams will figure you out, create turnovers, and outrun you more often than you outrun them.

- I honestly don’t understand why the underground football brain trust has turned on Michael Vick as the starter for the Eagles, and I LOVE me some Football Outsiders. Still, setting aside that his play so far has made him the 4th highest rated quarterback in the league, to say nothing of his 140 yards rushing, why is it so crazy that Andy Reid would go with the hot hand this year instead of the project QB? Yeah, I know that we all told one another that the Eagles were a rebuilding project, but wasn’t that because of Kevin Kolb? If Vick is playing well, then look around that offense (Jackson and Maclin are basically lightning and more lightning, Celek is looking as good as any receiving TE in football not named Gates, and McCoy is perfect for the system) and tell me that they aren’t talented enough to outscore any opponent with a dynamic QB who can survive with an imperfect line and keep defenders down to acknowledge his speed. Then look around the NFC East and tell me which team is so clearly head and shoulders above the Eagles that they can’t realistically win their division in a year when they were supposed to be biding their time until those draft picks they stocked up for McNabb come to fruition. If the Bucs are teaching us anything, it’s that while rebuilding isn’t necessarily a bad thing, playing to rebuild is neither fun nor particularly effective compared to gambling big and seeing what works. Eagles take the NFC East, barring injury, with Vick as the starter. The man is making everyone in the league look 20% slower when he’s on the field, and has had two decent defensive fronts looking downright lost when he starts to move in the backfield. With a little pocket discipline to keep from relying on the physicality, Vick’s physicality is all the more impressive as a weapon, and we get a glimpse of Vick's initial promise of an offense with the quarterback as both distributor and offensive tool in anf of himself.

- This Bills team is the worst NFL team of the last 5 years. People keep wanting to bring up the 0-16 Lions when I tell them that. Guys, that Lions team would have beaten this Bills team 9 out of 10 times, and only went 0-16 because they were committed to seeing just what they had to work with before rebuilding around Stafford. Meanwhile, this team, after 11 years of failure, has restarted things with Chan Gailey, no quarterbacks of note, and a top 10 draft pick running back who is averaging 1.1 yards per carry. It’s not even CLOSE.

- At what point does Bud Adams step in and ask Jeff Fisher just what the hell his problem is with Vince Young? Pulling Young in the second game of the season after a year long process of getting his confidence back is the height of stupidity, and suggests that one of these two has to leave if the other is going to function in Tennessee. If that’s the case, and I expect most people to think this is blasphemy, shouldn’t it be Fisher? The man has been to one Super Bowl. The next best team he’s ever had flamed out against a so-so Ravens team in 2008, and his other successful squads have either been helmed by Young or the product of turning a decent team into a playoff squad, but not quite a contender. Meanwhile, Young is only 27 years old, still young enough to build a team around, and, with the right coaching, has shown that he can be a successful starting quarterback in the NFL, particularly considering the ground game this team has built around him. He’s the sort of versatile threat at QB that most coaches dream of having, and yet Fisher seems almost disdainful about playing him as a starter. On the year, even with the debacle in Pittsburgh, Young is having an above average season, the sort of thing that makes Fisher’s decision to bench him all the more ridiculous and potentially disastrous for a Titans team that will need Young to play at a good to great level if they’re going to be contenders. Last week it looked like the blending of Fisher’s style as a coach with Young’s abilities as a player could make this team a dark horse Super Bowl contender; now it looks like that very combination could be what keeps them tied to mediocrity.

- I still don’t buy the Dolphins as a legitimate playoff team. They’ve struggled to win against a Vikings team that was giving them the game and is in the middle of imploding, and a Bills team that is the worst NFL team of the last five years. This weekend, the Dolphins should realize that not every team is going to be so abysmal on offense (cue Schotty drawing up a Jets game plan with two pass plays, both for 7 yards or less).

- Demaryius Thomas, people. I told you about Bay Bay coming out of the draft, and you all insisted on harping about Dez Bryant and the importance of looking polished in college. You know what you can teach in the pros? Polish. Know what you can’t teach? The kind of size and speed combination that creates mismatches any time a defense can’t double cover a player. Oh, and he’s in the perfect offense to learn the importance of route running and have multiple opportunities to play a big role in the offense. Watching him freed from the option system of Georgia Tech is going to be breathtaking, and makes McDaniels look a little less crazy for losing Marshall so willingly.

- The Gradkowski vs. Campbell debate is sad because, considering how this team has functioned, it shouldn’t be a debate: Gradkowski is the right man for the job. Campbell clearly has the tools to unlock the maximum ability at which these skill players can play, but the team doesn’t have the line to allow Campbell to work. Meanwhile, Gradkowski, while more limited as a vertical passer, showed the same knack Sunday that he had last year for working under the unreasonable pressure created by a porous line. The fact that he got DHB involved only furthers the notion that while he’s not the best player in a vacuum, he’s almost certainly the best player at QB for the Raiders right now, and the only real hope they have of proving those that had them as a sleeper to win the division (read: me) right. Sucks when talent has to be set aside for the survival of a flawed system, but there doesn’t appear to be a choice here.

- They really, really, really need to do something about those FG timeouts. Entirely off-field tricks should never trump on-field play or tactics.

- That said, there is no dumber on-field tactic than leaving Andre Johnson in single coverage with a slow, undersized safety. If you’re going to get beaten, make them beat you with someone else, Redskins.

- Yeah…that precision offense of the Jags might have been a little easier to spot against the Broncos defense than a Chargers team that was running away with the game early.

- The Giants don’t have the offensive line to hang with opposition that is devoted to athleticism in the trenches, and the Colts are nothing if not athletic up front, as Dwight Freeney proved on Sunday night. Yes, they caught an angry, ugly Colts team that was looking to prove a point, but that doesn’t change the flaw that the Colts were exposing all night, specifically that if you’re fast around the edges you can harass Eli Manning into a bad night. Eli is a quarterback that functions best with the time to look off or play fake defenders away from where he’d like to go, and that sort of deception only works with time to sell the con to defenses.

- Antonio Gates has played on too many good teams to be an NFL street legend. The man is going to be a Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done. Just an amazing example of what that position can be in the hands of a dynamic athlete and a creative coach.

- Finally: HOW YOU LIKE EL GUAPO MARK SANCHEZ NOW? Don’t phrase it like the Jets won a hard fought battle within the division. Without their all-world cornerback or their all-world center, the Jets manhandled a New England team that everyone was ready to hand the AFC East. Mark Sanchez (21/30, 220 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) showed why the Jets drafted him last year with the fifth pick, and why they should probably play like they did so. The run game was solid, with Tomlinson seizing the lead role from Greene and Greene actually playing like he cared to fight for it. Meanwhile, putting aside subsequent bad behavior (side note: believe me, I hate drunk drivers, but in a league where we give men who hit women a slap on the wrist, the call for public shaming and punishment of a guy who made a mistake in which nobody was hurt seems a bit hypocritical), Braylon Edwards looked like the sort of mismatch nightmare the league has been waiting for him to become for years (5 catches for 45 yards and a TD, including a 2 point conversion). But the star of the show was Dustin Keller (7 catches, 115 yards and a TD), who showed he could one day be every bit the receiving TE that Antonio Gates is if he can add a little precise execution to his undeniable physical gifts. Oh, and Jericho Cotchery put up a TD, but I’ve been telling you he’s the best hands in the AFC East for years, so shame on you for doubting. More exciting still was the defense, which played at an elite level without the player everybody thought they needed in order to be elite. Antonio Cromartie reminded everybody why he was once the most feared cornerback in football, punishing Brady for attacking him one too many times, and Kyle Wilson, though still very raw, played a tighter game than his penalty riddled debut. This, my friends, is the team that I wanted to see all along, one that isn’t afraid to unleash the collection of unstable talents they spent all offseason stockpiling. It’s fitting that the nail in the coffin was a Jayson Taylor forced fumble. For all the talk that this team being too oddly shaped, or too undisciplined to use its individual talents in a cohesive team attack, this past Sunday was an example of why I still think this is the scariest roster in the AFC. Yeah, that first win feels pretty damn good.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow and Friday (posts are increasing as the new job calms down), and a podcast will be up soon, too. In the downtime, make sure you’re following us on twitter at twitter.com/titraffic (or @ titraffic, as the kids say).

Empire Football Podcast Season 2, Episode 1

2010-09-18T15:39:00.003-04:00

For those of you who like rusty, frequently coherent, often interrupted, but actually thought out football discussion, the Empire Football Podcast returns. This week, we talk Derek Anderson (FIREWORKS!), the Seahawks (BALLOONS!), and maybe even some teams you actually care about (PANDERING!!!). Let us know how we can improve in the comments.

Download or stream it HERE.

The Hangover 9-15-2010

2010-09-15T10:41:00.008-04:00

It's an extra long Hangover thanks to the Monday night Jets debacle and some work craziness. Let's just get to the games...

- After one week, it’s hard to say what to make of the Jaguars. Certainly, there were flashes of 2007 there, with Garrard coolly moving through his reads (16/21, 3 TD and 0 INT), exploiting the defense’s fear of the run, and being careful with the football (he never once looked like he was pushing…unlike Kyle Orton, who ALWAYS pushes when he’s down). If the ground game, while being the focus of opponents’ defenses, can continue to produce at an average clip (MJD averaged 4.2 per carry on 23 carries), this team is shaping up to be the precision based machine that Del Rio turned it into in 2007, when they could have won it all but for a buzzsaw of a Pats team. Equally exciting: The team is finally figuring out how to use TE Marcedes Lewis, who was built for intermediate end zone aerial mismatches.

- I’m also not freaking out if I’m a Broncos fan, considering everything that happened to your team this offseason. The Jags found the mismatch they liked in Lewis and exploited it all day, but with all of the injuries on defense (particularly to Dumerville), it’s hard to imagine this team going through a matchup without any hiccups defensively. Meanwhile, Knowshon Moreno showed more of his diverse skillset than we saw all of last season, and a pass game without its biggest threat (Demaryius Thomas, who is hurt) put up almost 300 yards. No, it’s not going to be smooth sailing, but the McDaniels system is working, and if Tebow can develop passing skills to complement his athletic talent, this offense is going to get a lot better as the year progresses.

- A game that might be worth freaking out over is the 49ers-Seahawks matchup. Look, I get that the Seahawks were jacked up to prove that the new regime works; it’s why I like Carroll as a coach (yes, you can motivate individuals as a group without diminishing their identity) and why I’m not immediately back on the Seattle bandwagon (never forget: FREE SENECA). I also get that the Seahawks were (and kind of still are) a total unknown thanks to the turnover; that’s the only reason why I’m not crucifying the 49ers for getting blown out in a division game. Still, for the Seattle offense to roll out there with Deion Branch and Mike Williams as the top receivers, Justin Forsett as the top running back, and Matt Hasselbeck running the show, and then just bend the San Francisco defensive backfield to their will, is damn near incredible. Almost as preposterous is the fact that the 49ers offense got nothing going on the ground (Gore gained 38 yards on 17 attempts), managed 225 yards of desperation air (and 2 INT), and were kept out of the end zone all game, though this is more understandable when you remember that the Seahawks may have my favorite LB corps in the league (Tatupu, Curry, and Hill), Marcus Trufant is very good when healthy, and the D-line is surprisingly deep and powerful, if not spectacular. Oh, and that 31-6 beatdown happened when their star left tackle was out. It’s a long year, but calling that game a fluke seems like a cop out, particularly given all the skepticism that front office faced for its work. Embrace the unknown, people.

- On a more brief note: That wasn’t all Alex Smith’s fault, but my faith is shaken, if only because he pressed so hard when things got tough, like he thought Nolan was there to yank him for J.T. O’Sullivan all over again.

- Okay, so I know the narrative is that Derek Anderson sucks because Peter King said so and “DID YOU SEE HE ONLY CONNECTED ON 3 OF 15 PASSES TO FITZGERALD AAAARRRRRGGGHHH!”. That said, dude threw for 297 yards, threw no interceptions, and brought his team back in the 4th quarter with a well placed throw to Fitzgerald. I’m not saying he’s a great, or even a good quarterback, but if the whole point of dropping Leinart was choosing someone who believed (and made the team believe) that he could win, don’t you want him going to your best playmaker as many times as possible? Not to mention, Fitzgerald was bracketed to hell all day, making finding him and avoiding picks tough, and Anderson managed to make use of Steve Breaston being in single coverage. No, a winning strategy isn’t as sexy as someone dominating the competition with their own identity, but craft deserves respect.

- As for the kid Bradford…eh. Ndamukong Suh remains the truth

- I’m impressed that the Vikings hung around as long as they did on Thursday. That’s a team that is beaten up, without its top receiver or a healthy QB, and but for one bad turnover following a big hit, these guys could have stolen one of the hardest road games on their schedule. If that pass attack gets settled into its identity, Brad Childress could finally have the offense that solidifies the offensive thinker cred that got him his job

- I also want to see the Saints actually start putting the hurt on people. The death of a thousand pin pricks is cool when both teams are wildly talented (which the Vikings showed they still are), but it won’t work over the long haul, and is no way for an offense this thrilling to get by.

- I haven’t seen a game as ugly as that Buffalo/Miami contest in a long time (read: since MNF Jets/Ravens). Look, I know that Sanchez didn’t get the chance to look good or bad, but can we all agree that Chad Henne, whose team DID allow him to throw, looks bad (21/34 for only 182 yards)? Everything is long or short except for that 7-10 yard window, and without a receiver like Brandon Marshall to bail him out (8 catches for 53 yards off of 13 targets) he would have been in trouble against a stout Buffalo defense. There is no art to his game, just bludgeoning arm strength, making him the perfect Parcells quarterback.

- Oh, and Chan Gailey, when the most savvy move in your repertoire is the “intentional safety,” maybe you should hang it up.

- OK, we can all agree that the Megatron call was a travesty. If you don’t think a referee arbitrarily negating an athletically spectacular performance based on a questionable technicality is always the wrong call, you’re at the wrong blog. Here’s my more sinister and, admittedly, crazier take: After a slate full of ugly, medium to low scoring games, the Megatron call was the biggest example of a trend of refs minimizing the spectacle of the players’ performance on the field in an effort to give owners leverage in the upcoming labor negotiations. Say it’s crazy all you want, but nobody has been more focused on diminishing the importance of individual players (you know, the ones who score the points) than the owners, and we’re about to see why this offseason.

- On a football note, nothing about my opinion of the Bears changes, and as for the Lions, here’s all that changes: That defense is a lot friskier than I thought it would be. Take away two big plays to Matt Forte (one of which was a bizarre combination of poor flat coverage and bad pursuit angles, and the other of which was a young defense losing track of the running back), and you’re left with just 255 yards of Chicago offense through the air (and just 7.73 yards per attempt), and an even more intriguing 3.3 yards per carry on the ground. Look, it SUCKS that Stafford is hurt. It sucks a lot, and it’s going to add time to his development…but it’s not the end of the world for this offense. Shaun Hill has been adequate with decent teams, and these tools are the best he’s had. Stafford will get back soon (hopefully), and hopefully he’ll develop into the distributor this offense needs, but for this team to lose the edge that it showed in its first game back would be a cop out.

- Nothing makes me happier than watching Vincy Young operate on the run, out of the pocket, and hurling the ball downfield with accuracy (13/17, and 9.1 yards per attempt, with 2 TD and 0 INT). It’s hard to find yourself, and for VY to do so, come back to something as difficult as pro football, and succeed would be really special, and not just in a football context. He could do it, too; if he’s at potential, this team is going to be very difficult to beat on either side of the ball, particularly with players that can punish defenses if they aren’t adequately respected (Johnson, underrated receivers, and Young).

- I still believe in the Raiders. That Titans team could mess around and win a Super Bowl this year; the Raiders are just trying to change the direction of the franchise. That said, the protection up front for this team is still horrendous, and plays completely against Campbell’s weakness as someone who tends to overthink the pocket. Campbell has the arm to maximize the physical talents of these receivers, but it may very well be more important that Gradkowski has the quick thinking and ability to work under pressure that allows them to be used at all. Frustrating, but rudimentary execution is a building block toward success; imagined potential, even if it could exist in an ideal universe, would be more of the same old nothing for the Raiders.

- Hakeem Nicks attacks the ball with a recognition that his greatest weapons are his body control and his hands. The result is that his frame is extended beyond it’s static range, and his speed becomes more deadly thanks to the minimal space required for him to be “open”. Granted, it was against a poor Carolina secondary, and it will be interesting to see how the team responds if opponents start to focus on Nicks. Still, those are gifts that are difficult to compensate for without constructing horribly flawed defensive schemes (as opposed to speed or size, both of which can be schemed against with smart ways of doubling coverage assignments without taking people completely out of place). I had wondered if there would be any receiver who could give the Giants flexibility in attack for them to maintain their trench warfare identity, and Nicks certainly is geared to attack defenders as the kind of uniquely gifted receiver who needs to be covered by a uniquely gifted corner in order to be stopped.

- I give Matt Moore one more shot, but otherwise, the future needs to be now for the Carolina quarterbacking prospects. John Fox needs to make his bones with one of these quarterbacks and prove he’s still got juice.

- Oh, and Steve Smith (yes, THE Steve Smith, no matter what they say in New Jersey) may never get to be on a winner while he’s still elite (which he has been for a long time, even past when it should have ended), but he’s a street legend in the NFL. In fact, I’m making this the year of the NFL street legend, and Steve Smith is the standard bearer for the cause.

- Weirdest game of the day: What the hell happened to the Bengals? Are the Patriots that good? After last season, in which the ground game was average at best, the Pats were able to move the ball on the ground effectively with all three of their primary backs, averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the ground, even when the game was out of hand. Meanwhile, over the course of a single, well done draft, the Pats look like they’re a pass attack that can kill teams at ever level by spreading the field, and, as mentioned above, they have the backs to take advantage of spread defenses. No, the defense didn’t look great, but it looked like a scheme that kept the Bengals offense on its heels long enough to let the Pats offense build an insurmountable lead, which means Belichick is back on his frustration game, which is how that dynasty of his got started, if you remember.

- Then again, are the Bengals that bad? I don’t think so, but that front got abused by so-so rushers and a so-so line, negating the strength of their corners. Also, I understand that Cedric Benson was nice last year, but he wasn’t the centerpiece then, and he shouldn’t be the centerpiece now. When the Bengals were on, they figured out how to use their traditional passing scheme to run the ball from a pro set. This year, without a credible deep threat, defenders are able to camp down on intermediate and short routes and dare Carson to go long to receivers who haven’t shown they can (even Shipley, who broke free deep on one route, was easily chased down). Unless the Bengals are committed to distributing the ball and taking multiple stabs in the place of sweeping slices, this offense doesn’t seem to function as a whole, and it can’t do so if Benson is the focal point of the attack. Fear in the face of expectations could kill this team. Sad.

- I mean, it’s cute to trash the Browns, and particularly Eric Mangini (who I have issues with, but mostly as an in-game coach), but don’t forget that without one fluky touchdown, this team wins on Sunday against a Bucs team that I’ve gone on the record saying is going to be a tough beat for opponents thanks to total renovation through the air and a young lightning and thunder combo in the defensive trenches. The fact is that the Browns game plan, executed correctly, would have worked, which seems simple if not for the fact that my gripes with Mangini in New York were based on that NOT being the case there. The problems, then, lie in miscues (though you could make an argument that, once leading, Mangini should have just run to daylight with his backs and taken the ball out of Delhomme’s hands). While Hillis is, by his nature as a running back, relatively simple to deal with either by replacement or reuse (bad as they were, fumbles do happen in the Florida heat), the Delhomme question is one that may very well stare this team in the face for the foreseeable future. The picks, while certainly the product of Delhomme’s admirable competitive streak, were still the kinds of shortsighted mistakes that people feared Delhomme would bring to Cleveland. Yes, I’m a fan of Seneca Wallace (FREE SENECA), but considering how well we heard he and Cribbs worked as a backfield tandem, is it crazy to think that a scheme built around him as a starter would be the kind of move that is effective both for being unique and for being built on the most athletically gifted offensive lineup the Browns can throw out there? Say it with me: A coach is most successful when he maximizes the talent he has, not when he builds the best system for the talent he lacks. I want this team to succeed, if only because I think Mangini has the potential to be a free thinking innovator as a head coach (that ESPN Magazine article was good for his image), but considering they’re outgunned on paper, why not run something different, and maybe even scary out there, even if it means eating the price paid for a flawed tradition.

- That said, that Bucs WR Mike Williams’s catch, though fluky, was still the product of the kind of scary athleticism that daring teams take advantage of late in the draft. Get Carlton Mitchell going, and a similarly bright future could be yours, Browns.

- Michael Vick is the truth. Honestly, how do you NOT start him if you’re the Eagles, after he had you so close to beating the favorite to win the NFC championship? 16/24 for 175 yards and a TD through the air, and 11 carries for 103 yards on the ground means that there could be at least one more year of the combination of raw physical talent and deceiving passing that once made Vick the standard bearer for the future of NFL offenses. Better still, his ability to scramble creates opportunities for single coverage for a lightning quick, but undersized receiving corps to get time to break out of double coverage or take full advantage of single coverage mismatches (the Maclin TD was a good example of this). Meanwhile, Kolb looked lost, and not just because he might have been leaking brain fluid. All I’m saying is that Vick didn’t go to the Pro Bowl twice because of his image or his popularity; the man used to be an elite and unique quarterback.

- I told you so about Alex Barron. Look, all the offensive talent in the world means nothing if Tony Romo doesn’t get more time out of that line, and although the Redskins are a decent defense, they certainly aren’t elite like others he’ll face. Golden Pleasure Domes built on sand never work out well.

- Meanwhile, Washington seems awfully chipper for an offense that completed fewer than half its passes, couldn’t get any meaningful ground game going, and won thanks to a miscue out of a Pop Warner football game. They may gel before its all said and done (Moss seems to be benefiting nicely from the new offense), but so far, both teams from the Sunday Night game look a class below their peers in the NFC East.

- Chargers/Chiefs was a wash. Nothing to be learned about either team from that game given the weather and the impressive home crowd.

- The Jets started the season off by ripping my heart out through my stomach. 21 passes? On a night when EVERYBODY could have told you that the tide was turning against the Jets, who have positioned themselves to be the league’s villain this season, Schotty geared up an offense that threw just 21 times??? I understand protecting your quarterback, but that was gutless to the point of disgust. He’s a first round draft pick, not Trent Dilfer being told “hey, just don’t screw this up.” Against that secondary, there really is no excuse for Edwards getting just 4 targets, or Keller getting just 5. Five years into the Schotty experience, this guy has just proven that he’s good enough to make a poor offense decent, but has almost no ability to make a decent offense special, and this team has spent a lot of money to give him some special tools on offense. More heartbreaking than the loss (which, though bad, was as much the product of questionable officiating and minor miscues as it was overall execution) was the way the game plan seemed to gut Sanchez of the confidence he’d built up in the last offseason. Considering how hard last season was, and how he’d seemed to grow from it, wouldn’t it make sense to take a couple of shots down the field to let the league, and probably Sanchez himself know that the offense believes in his ability to run the team? What I saw Monday was pretty much the exact same team that snuck into the playoffs in 2009 at 9-7, and while it was a pleasant surprise last season, that would be a huge mark against both this front office and coaching staff.

Alright. We’ll be up with something else in the afternoon, and don’t forget to follow us on twitter at @titraffic.

Premature Evaluations 2010 - NFC South, NFC West, NFC East

2010-09-11T18:31:00.004-04:00

Yeah, I had to hustle it up. That’s fine; predictive analysis is less fun anyway.

NFC South

North Carolina Panthers

You know what people keep forgetting? This team was shot to hell last year, with Jake Delhomme doing everything he could to kill the offense short of lining up on the other side of the field, one receiver who cared enough to get upset about it (Steve Smith straddles the line between sociopath and elite competitor as well as anybody in the NFL), and they still managed to break even at 8-8. Even if Matt Moore is the product of a lack of tape combined with physicality, they still have two solid prospects to groom behind him, and John Fox is the next Jeff Fisher (seriously, they went 8-8 last year, check again), so it’s hard to think that things can’t improve sooner rather than later. If they have the guts to build a gameplan around their most dynamic threats (Williams, Stewart, and Smith), this team could easily sneak in and get a lot of “sleeper” talk, when in reality they’ve been awake all along.

New Orleans Saints

Last year it was all about a collection of unique talents combining to create a synergy of offensive firepower. The result was an incomparable team attack that sublimated individual power for the benefit of the identity of the whole (driven largely by Drew Brees and his remarkable ability to distribute). This season, if the team hopes to catch the league by surprise again and prevent the dreaded “disease of more”, the team must begin to reveal the individuals beneath its banner. Different players will need to become the focal point at different times, instead of last season’s consistent focus on the team as a multifaceted weapon highlighting solely its mission (something that will be impossible to replicate with so many talents in their prime). If opponents are faced with the prospect of having to deal with a consistently shifting best punch, there’s no reason the Saints can’t add another title, this one more personal and less business.

Atlanta Falcons

But for a couple of injuries last year, this team was built to drag the Saints into the paced, metronomic hell they make of the field. A healed offensive line and Michael Turner, the return of Harry Douglas, and a healthy Peria Jerry (also STOP FORGETTING THAT CURTIS LOFTON IS LEGIT) mean that Matt Ryan gets to stop worrying about the scoreboard and exist in that state of calm in which he proved to be the rookie of the year. If the Saints were the celebration that couldn’t be stopped, this team is built to win as the solemn funeral party that won’t be made happy again, recognizing that you don’t beat the champ by doing what they do, but by creating your own, more powerful identity.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If the Raiders are my traditional sleeper this year, the Bucs are my mutant sleeper, meaning they could make a striking turnaround entirely the result of one year’s overhaul. The sub par receiving corps has been refreshed with two rookie wideouts, both of whom are physical specimens with big play capability (Mike Williams is going to embarrass some corners before he gets the respect he deserves). The porous defensive line is starting two rookies, both of whom are top of the draft picks, and one of whom (Gerald McCoy) has the potential to be every bit as dangerous as the more heralded Suh, only faster. Gone is overpriced RB platoon member Ward, guaranteeing touches to more explosive backs who will work the middle of the defense, forcing defenders inward and giving the aforementioned rookie WRs room to exploit their physicality in their first year of learning the tricks of the trade. Oh, and this secondary has a good chance to develop into a frightening blend of established experience and limitless potential all at once, if Aqib Talib doesn’t go supernova. Also, Josh Freeman shows flashes of Ben Roethlisberger (both the good Ben and the increasingly rare (on the field) bad Ben), minus the off the field garbage.

PREDICTION: Saints win the division, followed by the Falcons, Bucs, and Panthers

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

When Derek Anderson succeeded in Cleveland in 2007, everybody thought the team was in ruins, but with the help of an underrated running game, a top flight receiver, and a solid passing offense, Anderson overcame the obvious signs that he was a stop-gap quarterback for the year and his physical skills actually gained utility, allowing the team to exceed expectations. Replace “Cleveland” with “Arizona” and tell me this doesn’t sound really familiar. Remember “he just sucks” doesn’t qualify as a thoughtful argument. Maybe there's plenty of tape, but this certainly isn't an unrealistic scenario for improvement.

Seattle Seahawks

Sigh. I admire Pete Carroll’s confidence in his ability as a coach, particularly in the face of people thinking he’s doomed to fail simply because he was a winning coach at the collegiate level. Hell, I’m thrilled that he’s proving my “a coaches job is to allow talented, though sometimes difficult, individuals to reach their potential” credo with Mike Williams. And yes, it definitely pays dividends to allow the players you believe in to gain the experience that is necessary to master their system and see if they can become the part of your vision that you hope they’ll become. Still, giving up the present for the sake of some future that may never come is just another way of avoiding responsibility. Why is Seneca Wallace in Cleveland instead of getting the chance to function in a new, working offense (no, I will never let this go, thanks for asking)? Why is Housh in Baltimore instead of giving this team the chance to compete with a scary, massive receiving corps against an NFC West in transition? Look, I’ll take the good with the bad, but it’s frustrating when the steps back feel so...unnecessary, particularly if this regime is supposed to be the new perspective on coaching.

St. Louis Rams

Never forget: This team took boring Chris Long over freakish talent Glenn Dorsey (who is only not a star because of a 3-4 system), and just took Sam Bradford (who looks good) over Ndamukong Suh (who looks like a more athletically gifted Warren Sapp). Then remember the motto: Scared money don’t make none.

San Francisco 49ers

This is the rare can’t lose watchable team for me. If Alex Smith succeeds, then it’s the triumph of intelligence and talent over circumstance and the NFL “toe the line” coaching culture. If Alex Smith fails, Troy Smith comes in, and with these receivers emerges as the solid, athletically gifted, pro savvy quarterback that he’s shown flashes of being all along, and that he should have been but for that Sugar Bowl. If both fail? Well, if I’m THAT wrong about both of these players, I deserve to suffer for it. Also, this receiving corps, if it makes proper use of Ted Ginn, can and should kill on every level…which plays right into Alex Smith’s strengths. Yeah, a favorite that I can get behind with both Alex Smith and Troy Smith as potential quarterbacks. It’s a weird NFL season.

PREDICTION: 49ers win the division, followed by the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams. I think Seattle catches people off guard early in the year thanks to all the turnover, and thanks to Anderson being mediocre in Arizona.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

Kevin Kolb is not Donovan McNabb. That said, the hourglass that began running when the team drafted Kolb in 2007 had run out of sand. Getting those draft picks in exchange for McNabb is a forward looking move. Yes, the team will never know whether or not they could have won it all with McNabb and mature, talented receivers, but that’s life. I know, slap that motto on Eagles t-shirts.

NY Giants

Does anybody else think this team is in trouble this year? Eli Manning emerged as a passer last year, and is finally proving that he’s a talented enough quarterback to make stars out of receivers who would merely be good on other teams (sound like anybody else we might know?). That said, the run game is slowing down; Jacobs can’t be BRANDON JACOBS anymore, and whatever everyone else is seeing is Ahmad Bradshaw’s statistically average work as the number one back, I must be missing it. Teams are going to figure out how to sit down on Steve Smith, and unless one of the other receivers this team has drafted shows they can be explosive and punish single defenders (and I’m not sure anyone here can, unless Hakeem Nicks has a gear I haven’t seen), does anyone see him building on last season? Throw in a secondary that I just don’t believe in (Antrel Rolle was an awful, AWFUL signing), and this team looks a lot like a one and a half trick pony (a stout defensive front and a strong pass rush) without the set of second punches those sort of teams need to succeed in the NFL. Remember, the Giants trench warfare have won in 2007 without their massive, speedy receiver who could exploit mismatches resulting from opponents gearing up against the usual Giants offense. On a completely unrelated note: Vincent Jackson is still holding out. Seriously, I feel like I’m starting to sound like Rain Man.

Dallas Cowboys

I was trying to understand why I care so little about this team, and then I figured it out: If all of these aerial weapons have remained the same (a rookie Dez Bryant is about as useful as a Patrick Crayton), and the defense hasn’t changed, why would exchanging an average left tackle for a bad one (Flozell > Alex Barron) make me like this team more?

Washington Redskins

Pretty much the reverse of what I think about the Cowboys. Add a good quarterback, a top talent at left tackle, and continue the development of a receiving corps that has plenty of talent and hasn’t come close to peaking, and revamp a defense while still making use of your best player (resist the temptation to throw Haynesworth to the wind, and the world is yours, Shanny), and tell me how we can NOT expect this team to stun the competition. Plus, the happiest quarterback in the league is playing angry while he’s still got the talent to do so well.

PREDICTION: Redskins win the division, followed by the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants.

And with that, let’s get the season going already.

Premature Evaluations 2010 - NFC North

2010-09-01T16:02:00.003-04:00

Minnesota Vikings

A fever dream, sustained long enough, becomes a sickness causing death. Last season, the Minnesota Vikings dodged suspensions for the centerpieces of their defensive line, saw their formerly underachieving receiving project become the 4th most prolific receiver in terms of yardage, and were helmed on offense by Brett Favre’s most impressive statistical performance ever, at age 39. But for one mistake, and an overtime rule that was changed almost five years after people had said it should be changed, this team could have won the Super Bowl, and their biggest loss to free agency was their backup running back. And yet, doesn’t it feel like things have changed? This team feels like the relationship that should have ended, except one party makes some big move to try and hold things together for just a little longer, hoping that the magic is still there (an analogy that makes Childress’s late visit to Favre all the more desperate).

To call last season anything but magical for the Vikings would be to do it a disservice. Favre and Rice’s breathtaking displays as passer and receiver aside, the entire team, from Jared Allen (2nd in the league in sacks) to Percy Harvin (a top 40 receiver in his rookie year and during a season in which the team was finding a role for him) to Adrian Peterson (who, in an off year, was still the 5th leading running back in yardage, and the leader in TD) all seemed to peak at once. So yes, while the overtime interception that effectively ended their season feels like the fluke that can’t repeat, it seems no more incredible than the 2009 season as a whole.

All of this makes Brad Childress’s demeanor, as well as the demeanor of the entire front office, nerve wracking for Vikings fans. Long torn between the future that may never arrive in Tarvaris Jackson and veterans that can’t do enough for the team, last season was a reprieve for Childress, allowing him to refrain from betting on his volatile project without losing any dynamic potency. At some point, however, things have to come back to reality. Sidney Rice’s injury already has this team looking painfully mortal. Even if Favre’s inevitable physical decline doesn’t take place this year (a long bet), everything can’t possibly last that much longer, which will only push Peterson's prime into irrelevance on an offense that hasn't developed around him. When it inevitably falls apart, this team is going to be that much worse for failing to invest in a real future, instead of clinging to the brief dream realized that was 2009. It’s a grim prospect for the future, and the kind of tension that can derail a team’s season.

Chicago Bears

You’re right guys; who needs Vincent Jackson when Devon Aromashodu is around? Oh, and Antonio Bryant? He’s definitely not better at 80% than Earl Campbell at 100%. While we’re at it, let’s alienate Greg Olsen and not utilize him as our most significant receiver. Seriously, if Jay Cutler doesn’t hang himself before this season is done, we lose all rights to call him mopey.

The fact is that as much as Mike Martz has taken an unfair share of the blame for bad situations in Detroit (no offensive line or defense) and San Francisco (no wide receivers), he’s shown himself to be far too stubborn about adjusting to the reality that the tight end is, for the most part, as much of a receiver as he is a blocker. Certainly the idea that you can buy your quarterback extensive additional time with an extra blocker is one that may have worked in the past, but defensive alignments and players have only gotten faster and more aggressive, making any advantage in blocking negated by the lack of an additional potential target under pressure. He did it with Vernon Davis in San Francisco; as much as Davis’s attitude was an issue, people didn’t talk enough about Martz’s irresponsible failure to build a pass attack around such an incredible talent. Now, having alienated Greg Olsen, who is similar to Davis in that he is by far the best receiver on the Bears, history appears to be repeating itself.

Which is a shame, because if the team focused more on blending Martz’s creative routes with the personnel available, there is talent to work with on the Bears. Matt Forte, though certainly not as good as he looked in his rookie season, is almost certainly not as bad as he looked last year, when the offensive line was in shambles and defenses had no reason to worry about anybody else for much of the season. Furthermore, the addition of Chester Taylor to the offense gives the team a legitimate one-two punch at running back, meaning that defenders will need to account for a fresher ground game. Meanwhile, the defense returns Brian Urlacher (who never gets the credit he deserves) and brought in Julius Peppers (who suffers from having gotten too much credit early in his career), creating the kind of athleticism in the defensive front that just about every team in the league would kill for. Throw in Jay Cutler, who is still one of the league’s most potent aerial weapons, and this should be a feisty team to contend with, right?

Except once again, the Bears (and Mike Martz) have failed to realize that the era of great coordinators turning ho-hum athletes into superstar receivers is over. Even if the offensive line is stronger (and honestly, Chris Williams SHOULD be better), does anybody believe that the Devin Hester experiment is anything other than the best example of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs? Are Johnny Knox and Devon Aromashodu putting the fear into anybody as second options? If Martz were willing to build an offense aroung Greg Olsen, this could be interesting (INTERESTING, not necessarily good), but history shows that Martz won’t adapt, much like the team he now joins. What we’re left with, then, is a strange forced marriage of elite, tempermental talent and yeoman grunts, with nothing in between to bridge the gap, preventing either group from influencing the other, and leading to a discordant pairing of outliers rather than a cohesive mean.

Detroit Lions

I’m more and more convinced that this is the only team that the Packers are genuinely afraid of. I think the Packers look at Favre’s Vikings and sees inevitable victory on the horizon. I think they look at the Bears and sees a middling squad that can’t hang with thair offense or overpower a revamped defense. I think they looks at the Lions, however, and see what Ndamukong Suh did to a better Browns offensive line en route to manhandling Jake Delhomme. They see how speedy Jahvid Best (CJ Spiller with a better salary) will keep their elite linebacking corps from attacking the offensive backfield without distraction. Most of all, they see that Calvin Johnson finally has new playmates in Nate Burleson (a number one receiver with gifts to be an amazing number two), Tony Scheffler (a great downfield TE when healthy), Brandon Pettigrew (primed for a breakout year after showing flashes last season), and canon-armed Matthew Stafford (whose stats don’t reveal how much he was unfairly asked to do as a rookie), meaning that Megatron should finally get the single coverage mismatches that will wreak havoc on their older corners and shaky safeties. No, they might not be a complete team, but the Lions are volatile, and for a predetermined favorite like the Packers, there’s nothing scarier than a volatile division opponent, particularly when they’re tailor made against your weaknesses.

With the drafting of Suh and Best, the Lions used this offseason to get what Matt Millen always wanted but never understood how to get: Firepower. This time, however, the focus is on spreading the fireworks around, giving the Lions at least one potentially scary playmaker at every level (with the unfortunate exception of the offensive line, unless Gosder Cherilius improves quickly and shockingly). While that weakness may keep them from having the consistency required of a contender, the distribution of talent gives them the potential to steal games from any given opponent. Certainly we’ve all been taught that consistency always trumps intermittent brilliance, but I’m not as inclined to write this year off as another failed experiment for the Lions. Going back to that scary spread of talent discussed earlier, isn’t it fair to say that if enough positions click in enough games, this team could steal enough of the season to go to the playoffs, or, considering how well matched they are, even beat Green Bay out for the division? Yes, it’s a long season, but it’s easy to forget that the NFL, on the micro level, is a game of short term, even momentary explosiveness that decides contests. This team is built to win with scattered explosions rather than systemic consistency, something that works more often than we’d care to admit (the Cardinals in 2008 were a good example of this). Whether or not you think that this team, can put everything together for a great year, there’s certainly too much here to ignore, which is more than anybody thought they’d be saying about the Lions this early in the Schwartz regime.

Green Bay Packers

The always clever Cian from The Norman Einsteins described last year’s Packers as something like cake frosting and fireworks. I didn’t realize at the time how apt that was, or how it would be the driving force behind the fun of last season as well as its greatest disappointments. The fact is that they were probably too happy for their own good. Everybody was all excited about how good Aaron Rodgers was performing as a starting quarterback, or how the defense, relying on two stellar corners and a linebacking corps from hell, and the statistics showed that this defense was built to kill and that the same receivers Favre had thrown under the bus a year earlier were now a young, underpriced, athletic hydra to defend against. The problem is that hopeful and overjoyed are great ways to wind up, but ineffective mindsets for the journey to a championship. That’s why the Packers couldn’t hold off a Cardinals team hell bent on proving their legitimacy, or a Tampa Bay squad whose beloved coach was backed against the wall, or a Pittsburgh squad in a shootout for their playoff lives. It’s the same reason why they couldn’t close the door on a vengeful Brett Favre, playing to salt the earth he’d made his own so recently.

This year, I’m expecting things to be a little heavier. That isn’t to say that we can’t see the same kind of free wheeling offensive aerial assault or creative blitz packaging that made the Packers fun to watch last season. Rather, if it all works out the way it should, there’s going to be some edge to all of it, making it all mean a little more. All I’ve heard this offseason is that Aaron Rodgers cares a whole lot more about the Favre legacy than he lets on; I’d like to see some of that jealousy and disdain played out on the field with a focus that will keep him from being the most sacked quarterback in the league (yes, his line was bad, but he also loves holding onto the ball and teasing a play out when escape should be the priority). A little anger and desperation about potential needing to be met should also help the run game, 14th in the league and clearly the weak link on this team, get the toughness and innovation from which truly impressive ground games emerge (don’t sleep on Brandon Jackson, a shiftier back than Ryan Grant, getting more of the workload to make both Grant and the run game as a whole more effective). We all understand that this team has more than enough talent to crush its competition; what’s more important is whether they understand how important it is that they do it NOW.

PREDICTION: Packers win the division, followed by the Vikngs, Lions, and Bears. I think Rodgers gets the importance of immediacy. I’m tempted to give the Lions the two spot, but I’d say they need one more year of growth before talent meets experience.

Premature Evaluations 2010 - AFC North

2010-08-25T17:24:00.005-04:00

With not much time left until the season, and the Bar Exam having eaten my summer alive, we'll be going through Premature Evaluations division by division, explaining why each team is more interesting than you may think, and even picking the team we think will come out on top of each division. Today, we continue with the AFC North, where everything looks like it's been written out in advance, unless one team starts speaking a different language all together.

Pittsburgh Steelers

I don’t understand how Pittsburgh supporters aren’t more freaked out about their top five quarterback, who put up incredible stats behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, missing the first four games of the season. Ben Roethlisberger arrived last season as an elite vertical passer, a title that he added to his well known gifts as a mobile powerhouse of a quarterback. Then, over the course of one offseason, he destroyed almost all of the goodwill that he’d earned on the field through his behavior off of the field. The team took the situation seriously enough to bring back former backup QB Byron Leftwich. Unfortunately for the Steelers, Leftwich isn’t going to do much against a lineup of defenses that aren’t a particularly forgiving bunch outside of the woeful Bucs. The Titans, Ravens, and Falcons all bring potent pass rushes to the field, and behind this offensive line Leftwich’s trademark catapult release and cement feet are an easy way to start off 1-3 at best, or perhaps even 0-4, neither of which is going to get the job done in a gruesomely competitive division.

Of course, it doesn’t need to be this way. Pittsburgh has, on their bench, a talent who is ready to start behind that offensive line, and has the kind of physical gifts that allow Roethlisberger to succeed behind it. The question facing the Steelers isn’t whether or not they can win without Roethlisberger; the question is just what exactly are willing to let Dennis Dixon become.

After falling to the fifth round in the 2008 draft due to a knee injury (people forget that he was a Heisman hopeful prior to the injury), the Steelers scooped Dixon up as a value pick and potential project backup QB. Two years later, under the bright lights of a divisional matchup and the hostility of a road crowd, Dixon put up a valiant effort, throwing for one TD and rushing for one more against a Ravens defense as brutal as any in the league. So Dixon clearly can lead this team, and certainly gives them a better chance of winning their first four games than Leftwich. The problem is where the team goes from there. At 28 and just three years older than Dixon, Roethlisberger is far from old, so the age difference isn’t such that Dixon can be groomed for the starting job. Still, if he can showcase his talents and win for one of the league’s marquee teams, Dixon could become a hot commodity on the trade market as Steelers fans are growing as impatient as they’ve ever been with Roethlisberger. Even if he can lead the team into the postseason (an unlikely feat given the loss of his best receiver and the further deterioration of his offensive line), one more off-field issue could lead fans to run him out of town. Dixon’s emergence as a legitimate NFL quarterback will only increase the pressure on a front office and player that are both under as much pressure to succeed as they’ve ever experienced in their tenures. As the unquestionable best available, Big Ben and the Steelers are comfortably stuck with each other; Dixon winning the first four games would change all of that. So if Byron Leftwich is the starter (and the Steelers start the season in an inevitable hole), remember that they’re there not because of Ben Roethlisberger’s actions, but because they chose the safety of easing him back into an empty throne over creating controversy.

Baltimore Ravens

Last year proved what we’ve been saying since they came into the league: Matt Ryan is your grandfather’s quarterback, but Joe Flacco is for the kids. In a down year and with a sub-par receiving corps, Flacco led his team to their second straight playoff appearance and was the 13th highest rated quarterback in the league. Furthermore, Ray Rice became the top flight talent that we all thought he could be, becoming the most dynamic offensive weapon on the team out of the backfield. So with the Ravens finally making the moves to get the receivers they’ve needed for the last five years in free agency (Demetrius Williams, you’re dead to me), this should be the year, right?

Maybe. Certainly, the Ravens needed to put together a receiving corps to take advantage of their dynamic QB and revived backfield. Still, there’s a difference between tweaking and renovating, and the latter isn’t always better than the former. Ask anybody with a stone garden; it’s about tiny shifts making big differences, not dropping big boulders wherever things look a bit off. The Ravens receivers weren’t going to get the job done (18th in the league while their ground game, rush defense, and pass defense were all top 10), but lighting everything on fire and putting all of their money behind two mercenaries whose talent is only matched by the doubts surrounding them as players is a risky move. Boldin has never shown that he can be an alpha dog receiver, but he’ll now be expected to put the kind of pressure on defenses that he used to allow Larry Fitzgerald to create. Meanwhile, because Boldin doesn’t have the quickness to burn secondaries vertically, the role of downfield threat will be played by Donte’ Stallworth, who is coming off of a year long suspension preceded by a miserable tenure with the Browns. Let’s just say I remain confused why he was a safer bet than Matt Jones (Matt Jones, you might also have to be dead to me for my own sanity).

Throw in 85 year veteran (I’m pretty sure that’s right) Derrick Mason moving to a new position in the slot and it feels like a lot of changes that don’t amount to much more certainty at a position that desperately needed to be tightened. If everything clicks, and Cam Cameron is able to use these receivers as effectively as he used the others for the past two years, the Ravens are going to be tough to cover, as Ray Rice with any more space figures to be a terror. If just one of these players fails to operate well in their new role (remember, even Stallworth is two years removed from being an effective second option), this team is going to look very similar to last year’s iteration, only a whole lot more expensive.

Cincinnati Bengals

Act like Terrell Owens returning from a year of wandering in the wilderness to play for a potential Super Bowl contender isn’t a good redemption story. The man just spent a season compiling solid statistics in one of the least pass friendly stadiums in the league, with the worst quarterback corps in the league throwing to him (may the curse of how they screwed Losman follow them until Trent Edwards retires…so one more year…). Now that he’s finally on a team where he doesn’t have to be the focal point of an offense, and where his physical gifts are perfectly matched to wreak havoc on smaller corners, we’re going to act like he’s a liability? The fact that he didn’t murder Trent Edwards with his bare hands tells me all I need to know about Owens learning to deal with difficult situations; he wants to win with a team that wants him.

The fact of the matter is that this team needs a veteran receiver like Owens to demand attention from better corners, allowing some of the younger receivers on the team to make full use of their talents. Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson are both entering that all important third year for wide receivers, and Caldwell at least has shown flashes of being a good to great slot receiver. Jordan Shipley looks like he might be every bit as threatening running routes underneath as the team hoped he’d be when they drafted him. Then there is rookie TE Jermaine Gresham, the final piece in the receiving puzzle for Cincy. If Palmer can still stand and deliver in the pocket, this team is going to have a whole lot of crisp routes creating passing windows. If Antonio Bryant can come back at any point this year, the offense might just be unstoppable with the addition of his over the top speed.

Yet for all the potential this offense shows, with the experience and talent finally matching up the way they did for the defense last season, there are also the sort of nagging doubts following this team that follow every redemption story. Last year’s otherworldly turnaround felt too good to be true, and as a result it’s impossible to rely on steady progress in the same direction. Can Cedric Benson really maintain last year’s breathtaking return to college form? Can a defense built on wildly talented pieces that all “arrived” last season maintain that sort of form (admittedly I’m less concerned here, as Jon Joseph and Leon Hall are as good as any CB tandem in the league)? Will Carson Palmer return to the norm of solid, borderline great performance? I said it last year in the playoffs, and it’s even more true this year: At 100%, this team should beat anybody they play, but at 80% they might not be able to hang with anybody. It’s a question of reliability, not talent, and after a year in which they put together the strongest, most reliable roster in the AFC North, the Bengals are now faced with the one challenge they haven’t met under Marvin Lewis: Maintaining the status quo.

Cleveland Browns

If everything shakes out the way it’s “supposed to”, then the Bengals or the Ravens will fight it out for the division, with the battle being determined by whether the Ravens talent does things we think they can do but haven’t done yet, or the Bengals talent fails to do things we didn’t think they could do until they did it last year. In this grueling land war that has become the AFC North (looking back, the most potent vertical receiving threat may be Donte’ Stallworth), everything looks to shake out based on the sum of individual performances on paper. And I’d feel a whole lot safer just picking one of those two teams if I could nail down just what the hell is going on in Paul Brown stadium.

Eric Mangini survived his first season as head coach of the Browns by putting together a string of games as well executed as any winning streak in the league last year. Whatever you want to say about Mangini (and I’ve probably said it), Cleveland Frowns had it right all along: The roster that he had last year suggests that he deserves primary responsibility for the late season success, and he earned the right to carry his system forward into 2010. Believe me, it’s shaping up to be quite the second chapter. While the rest of the division was making splashy acquisitions or hard line personnel moves to reestablish order, the Browns front office, between Holmgren and Mangini, was quietly stockpiling talent that, for one reason or another, was going unnoticed by the rest of the league. Ben Watson has every athletic gift that made Antonio Gates who he is, but was trapped in a system that was built on numerous targets, a preeminence of wide receivers, and therefore a need for tight ends to block primarily. He immediately becomes the most dynamic receiver on the Browns, and gives them legitimate downfield potency, a must for the remaining receivers who, though unquestionably gifted in other ways (I’m a HUGE MoMass fan), are nobody’s speedsters. The defense also picked up some depth and veteran reliability at linebacker, with myriad draft picks finally starting to mature and Scott Fujita bringing unquestionable experience to the table (also, just remember that CB Sheldon Brown was once a feared name by quarterbacks, and is the second CB on the team). Meanwhile, Jake Delhomme, understandably run out of town by North Carolina fans, comes to Cleveland bearing an unfair share of the blame for the aerial failure of a Panthers team that never gave him more than one receiver to whom he could throw. He’s a steady hand that can stand and deliver in the pocket, and, at one time, could lead his offense down the field.

Then there is Seneca Wallace. I could go on and on about why he has never gotten the fair shot to lead that he’s earned, or how he performed more than admirably with an absentee offensive line and sub par receiving talent and running backs in Seattle, or how he is just as reliable a passer as Delhomme but more mobile. Instead, however, I’m going to let the season play out and trust that Holmgren still understands what a gift he has in a player like Wallace. I’m loving reports on how he and Josh Cribbs are revolutionizing the Wildcat into a legitimate and varied offensive scheme, from which the Browns can run, use the option, or pass against defenses caught on their heels (by the way, either player can do all of those things…yeah, it’s pretty awesome). I’ve been waiting for a shape shifting offense like this for years, since Vince Young entered the league with so much promise.

While I’ve had and still have legitimate questions about Mangini’s prowess as an in-game coach (my primary cause for alarm at what he’ll do when all of this talent takes the field), there is no question that Wallace marks the most creative offseason move of an offseason that has the Browns primed to become…well, something. This season, much like last year’s, rests squarely on Mangini’s shoulders. He’s had the time to establish the culture he values so highly in his locker room, and he’s begun to gather talent unlike anything else in the division (relax, I said “unlike”, not necessarily “better”). Stacked straight up against the opposition, however, the Browns are still outgunned and certainly outrun. Built into something altogether different, however, something other than the standard monuments to the past that fill the rest of the AFC North, this Browns team is as intriguing as anything in the NFL. Dropping back with Delhomme passing or handing off every play to the backs (both of whom are solid), with a splash of Wildcat, this team is a novelty act that will steal a game or two. If, however, Mangini dares to dream that this team, and this offense in particular, could function at unprecedented levels using unprecedented forms, this team could mess around and steal an entire division from under the media’s upturned noses. Yes, of course I’ll be watching, and I’ll more than likely be rooting for it, too.

PREDICTION: Bengals win the division, followed by the Browns, Ravens, and Steelers. Nobody has explained why the Bengals necessarily have to take a step back outside of platitudes about character and chemistry, the Ravens look a little too much like things staying the same while they change, and the Browns are that perfect combination of desperate and inventive.

Premature Evaluations 2010 – AFC East

2010-08-11T15:59:00.005-04:00

With not much time left until the season, and the Bar Exam having eaten my summer alive, we'll be going through Premature Evaluations division by division, explaining why each team is more interesting than you may think, and even picking the team we think will come out on top of each division. Today, we continue with the AFC East, where everybody is one key move away from checkmate except for the one team that made the biggest move of the division (hint: We're big on C.J. Spiller).

Buffalo Bills

I contemplated writing “train wreck” here and moving on, but that’s not entirely fair. There are, upon some review, at least two things worth getting excited about on an otherwise outmatched team. For starters, the pass defense was great. LB Paul Posluszny developed into the versatile weapon between the hash marks the Bills were hoping he’d become, notching 110 tackles and 3 interceptions. He could become even scarier in a 3-4, with the size to thrive and the athleticism to be used in multiple ways. Meanwhile, there weren’t many corner’s better than CB Jairus Byrd last year, who put up a league leading 9 interceptions and had a streak of 5 games with at least 1 interception. Combined with an improving Donte Whitner and a surprisingly effective George Wilson at safety, the Bills pass defense was 2nd overall in the league, which, even considering that opponents led for much of the game, is still worth noting and gives the team at least one unit around which they can build.

Second, there was a lot to get excited about in the Bills’ last draft. The defensive front, more effective that some would believe last year (16th in the league) was bolstered with a strong DT and DE with the 2nd and 3rd picks in the draft, potentially turning a strong but unbalanced defense into a very scary overall unit. Meanwhile, the receiving corps has quietly compiled an interesting, if not particularly well understood combination of talents. Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish are a heartbreaking combination of speed and underachievement, James Hardy has vanished into thin air (undoubtedly difficult when you stand 6’7”) but still has gifts that few receivers in the league have, and rookie Marcus Easley, standing 6’3” and with solid downfield speed, could be the steal of the draft at WR in the 4th round. Then, of course, there’s C.J. Spiller, who can play as a receiver or running back, and becomes the most electrifying element of a backfield that, when healthy and playing up to potential, is as talented as any in the league (reports of Marshawn Lynch’s death have been greatly exaggerated). Is Spiller is involved as a receiver in the rumored spread offense the Bills want to run, putting two out of three backs on the field at any given time, this team could wind up shocking some of their divisional opponents with a stunning turnaround on offense.

The problem, of course, is that there is really nobody to get the ball to all of these intriguing pieces, and no offensive line to give them time to work. None of the three veteran quarterbacks on the roster have proven to be anything other than disappointing. If Levi Brown, an athlete with accuracy issues, can be trusted to simply not get in the way, this team could prove a decent sleeper matchup on any given week, but seeing as he’s having difficulty even making it out of camp, it’s looking like another long year for a Bills team that has no foundation, just a whole lot of pretty windows.

Miami Dolphins

Where did the Dolphins get this rep for being a hard nosed team? 22nd in total defense, the Dolphins below average against both the run (18th in the league) and pass (24th in the league). Small wonder, then, that they were so excited to overpay or LB Karlos Dansby. Bringing him into the center of a 3-4 scheme that already boasts solid athleticism at the position (Channing Crowder is a brute in the middle, and Cameron Wake is on “breakout year” two on the edge) is the kind of high priced gamble that changes a defense, though, and should make the team stronger in the middle and on the pass rush, allowing their underrated secondary to get the credit they deserve (Side note: The competition between CBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith for interceptions is almost as fun as the one to see whose earrings are sweeter).

Equally exciting is the trade of a second rounder to acquire disgruntled WR Brandon Marshall (Another side note: What the hell, GMs? This is one of the best receivers in the league, and a proven commodity who had a stellar year with Kyle Orton throwing passes, and nobody wanted to put up more than a 2nd rounder? I’d be more angry about this, but nobody is willing to put up a 1st and 3rd for Vincent Jackson either, so I got used to this stupidity before. I’m going to be looking right at you, AFC North, when your champ gets trounced in the postseaspon because you can’t threaten to go over the top of any playoff defense.) Think that one offensive skill player can’t change the identity of a team? The leading receiver on the Dolphins in 2009 was Davone Bess, who had 758 yards and 2 TD (Brian Hartline led receivers in scoring with 3 TD). Brandon Marshall had 1120 yards receiving and more than three times as many TD (10) as any receiver on the Dolphins. Whatever you think of Chad Henne, it’s impossible to think that he won’t look a whole lot better throwing to a 6’5” monster who runs routes better than any other receiver with his physical stature, and he gives the Dolphins the alpha dog passing target they’ve lacked for almost a decade.

There are a lot of things to love about this team. Jake Long is on the verge of becoming a top three left tackle, Ricky Williams is one of the best individual stories in football (not to mention the perfect synthesis of on and off-field style), and the receivers who aren’t named Brandon Marshall are equal parts underrated and perfectly suited to their unique roles. Still, does anybody else think that this team is facing another year where it’s a piece away from being legitimate? Until Chad Henne stops overthrowing every single pass of more than 5 yards (a classic sign of the insecurity of a former Pennington backup…keep proving the haters wrong, Handsome Chad…) he remains a pipe dream with good PR man (FREE TYLER THIGPEN). Ronnie Brown is another year older and another injury weaker. Eschewing Ted Ginn in the same offseason they picked up the alpha dog WR he was never meant to be (or, perhaps even worse, the possession beast every top flight speedster needs to get free) is the telltale sign of a front office that believes the system is completely incapable of failing the talent, and is quick to demonize the talent that doesn’t reach its potential within the dogma of the system. We’re big on unmet potential signifying that a player is a building block rather than a failure; Parcells, on the other hand, is once again showing his belief that a player is what he is within the first three years of his career. I know which argument I believe, but this Dolphins team could go a long way toward deciding the debate.

New England Patriots

We already discussed these guys earlier in the summer, so let me just say this: If you don’t think these guys will be one of the last two standing in the divisional race, you’re crazy. Brady and Moss aren’t old enough to be done yet, Wes Welker is only going to improve as the season goes along, and this defense is hitting that sweet spot the Bengals found last year, where frightening talent is matched with enough veteran wisdom to overcome maturity problems.

New York Jets

We'll be less stat heavy here because, as we all know, I get emotional over this damn team. Case in point: I am legitimately stunned at the impasse that has been reached by Darrelle Revis and the Jets front office. First, let me start by saying that I totally understand the concept of working to maximize value and chemistry on a team. I also understand the importance of not over-valuing past performance when negotiating contracts for future performance, as doing so is an easy way to trap your team in mediocrity. An injury this season, and a monster contract for Revis leaves the Jets with no flexibility for years to come.

But isn’t the goal to win a championship? Exceptional players are so titled because they are just that: Exceptions to the normal operating procedures. Last year, Rex Ryan’s aggressive defense gets picked apart all year (much like it did in the AFC Championship) without Revis completely removing one receiver from the game. There is no argument to be made that Revis wasn’t the engine behind the team’s success last year. After an offseason in which the front office made move after move to stockpile talent and set the stage for a Super Bowl run, does it really make sense to say that drafting CB Kyle Wilson, who was supposed to make a great pass defense unbeatable, makes Revis any less important? It’s completely against everything the Jets have done all summer; added talent doesn’t reduce the greatness of the talent already available, but rather makes that talent even more potent. With Revis, the Jets have the makings of a great team that should consider the Super Bowl a realistic goal; without him, they’re a playoff caliber team with an average to long shot at winning a championship. Like I said before: Isn’t the whole goal, ESPECIALLY for a team so famously far-removed from a Super Bowl, to win a championship?

This team has all of the pieces to do it, too. A great pass defense obviously got much better with the addition of rookie Kyle Wilson, but people have written off DE Jason Taylor as washed up without noting that this defense is tailor made for a versatile, veteran outside rusher like Taylor (who will no longer be asked to be the biggest threat up front). Brodney Pool steps in as a perfect replacement for Kerry Rhodes (who was never willing to do the dirty work needed from the FS position by this defense). Offensively, this team is locked and loaded as well. WR Santonio Holmes, after a four game suspension, will step in as the number two target, finally giving Braylon Edwards the second speedy target to create single coverage mismatches. TE Dustin Keller, who improved significantly as the season progressed, enters the infamous third year for physically gifted pass catchers. RB Shonn Greene is a known commodity, but don’t be surprised when LaDainian Tomlinson shows what he can do with a great offensive line and another between-the-tackles back available to pick up tough yardage (also, Joe McKnight is going to be a special speed back). Oh, and anybody who thinks Mark Sanchez isn’t going to be much better in his second year after the playoff run he put together is either crazy or drank the Chad Henne Kool-Aid. El Guapo had one proven pass catcher last season, and got much better when the pressure was on (I wrote a whole thing on this at the end of last season, but it still makes me angry that I have to argue that a first round rookie who quarterbacked a team to the AFC Championship isn’t JaMarcus Russell).

All of this is to say that the Jets front office needs to decide how badly they want to end the championship drought. One player makes this team either a team that should win, or a team that could win, and the fact that it’s even a hard decision could sit very poorly with fans come January.

Prediction: Jets win the division, followed by the Patriots, Dolphins, and Bills. I have to believe that they realize how important Revis Island is to the team. (Otherwise, Pats, then Dolphins, followed by the Jets, then the Bills)

Premature Evaluations 2010 - AFC South

2010-08-04T16:20:00.007-04:00

With not much time left until the season, and the Bar Exam having eaten my summer alive, we'll be going through Premature Evaluations division by division, explaining why each team is more interesting than you may think, and even picking the team we think will come out on top of each division. Today, we continue with the AFC South, where waiting for the king to die could prove to be a losing strategy.

Jacksonville Jaguars

So did we lose David Garrard to the mists of unmet potential? Three years ago, there were two quarterbacks in the league better than Garrard, who had the size and speed to keep defensive fronts guessing and a stunning knack for making good decisions with the football. One year and two unfortunate offensive line injuries later, some the shine came off of Garrard. Then, in a season that was supposed to be about Garrard’s redemption as a passer, Jack Del Rio got rid of both of Garrard’s favorite receiving targets (Reggie Williams, who never rose to meet his physical gifts, and Matt Jones, who Del Rio devoted his coaching tenure to ruining), only to have the next best target (Troy Williamson) go down with an injury two games into the season. None of this is an excuse; bad things happen, and good players deal with it. It’s simply an acknowledgment of the unfortunate realities that often go unmentioned in the stat lines of a season.

At some point, though, a sad chapter becomes a sad ending. This is that turning point for Garrard. The same is true for Del Rio, and perhaps the Jacksonville Jaguars as a whole (that stadium in Los Angeles isn’t staying empty for long). And there are reasons for optimism here, in spite of the steady downward trajectory of the past two years. Mike Sims-Walker was a top 40 receiver in his rookie year who flashed skills in both possession situations and as a deep threat, and is the sort of franchise hometown hero that fans either root for or don’t deserve. He’ll be joined by Troy Williamson, who has speed to be a perfect second target, and earned a starting role on the team prior to his injury, and Marcedes Lewis, who has all the tools needed to be that formerly unknown veteran tight end who ruins your fantasy league out of nowhere. Meanwhile, the defense added two potential top flight talents along the defensive line (and Tyson Alualu, though certainly a reach in the first round, was also a potentially great “can’t miss” pick for a team that just couldn’t afford a draft failure). There’s size, there’s speed, and, if Garrard and Del Rio can recover some of the juice that made them America’s least likely power coach/QB couple three years ago, there’s a core for all of these pieces to work around, and this team can shock the league.

Unfortunately, they’re up against competition that is bigger, badder, and more proven than the Jaguars may be up to facing. The Colts are still running the AFC South corner until Peyton says otherwise, the Texans have supplanted the Jaguars as the phenom unit of the division, and even the Titans are better at the Jaguars’ strengths than the Jaguars are (MJD, as great as he is, is basically a poor man’s Chris Johnson). Even on their best day, this feels like too much for a Jaguars team in flux. So, once again, David Garrard is staring down the barrel of a season in which he’ll be defined less by his own merit, and more by the surrounding circumstances, buried alive under all of the context.

Tennessee Titans

When a coach fights to prove that a team belongs to him, and not to a particular talented player, the result is often that the team is taken away from both of them. Such is the situation facing Jeff Fisher and Vince Young this season. Young, two years removed from a misunderstood personal crisis that combined equal parts immaturity and mental issues, desperately needs to build on last season’s positive finish in order to prove that he can still become the quarterback of the future we still think he can be (his performance last season showed both improvement as a conventional passer and no less of an ability to punish defenders with his individual athleticism). Fisher, by contrast, needs to show that last year’s refusal to give Young the chance to succeed with the team was an anomaly and not a fundamental inability to work with a talent who will determine whether the Titans are a great running team or a legitimate championship contender.

Seriously, this is the perfect Jeff Fisher offense if he stops worrying about control long enough to notice. Everybody knows about the ground game (we’ll discuss this during the season, but the Peterson/Johnson debate is stupid; Johnson all day, every day.), but how is nobody talking about this receiving corps? Justin Gage (standing 6’4”) and Kenny Britt (6’3”) as twin tower monsters on either side of the field? Nate Washington as the speedy slot receiver to take advantage of single coverage? Hell, they even added another solid possession man in Damien Williams, giving them the ability to dominate defensive mismatches on every level. If Fisher and Young can get on the same page, and play off of each others’ strengths instead of fighting to prove each other wrong, I’m not sure there’s a defense in the league that can match up with this unit. If they keep fighting, leading Young to rely too much on his own talents or Fisher to take the ball out of his quarterback’s hands and make the team one-dimensional, this is going to be another mediocre season for a team that is built to be so much better than that.

Indianapolis Colts

For all the talk of a hangover for Super Bowl losers, does anybody really expect Peyton Manning to let this thing go that far off of the rails? Furthermore, has this team’s offseason given us any reason to think they’re slowing down? The usual suspects (Manning, Wayne, and Clark) return on offense, and are bolstered by a now seasoned Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon (respectively an elite possession receiver and a consistent threat downfield). Donald Brown figures to step comfortably into his role as a member of the rushing platoon with Joseph Addai, potentially adding a legitimate ground threat to an offense that has been one dimensional since their 2006 championship (last year’s league worst 80.9 rushing yards per game was utterly depressing and a big reason for the team’s loss in the Super Bowl).

But it’s the defense (14th against the pass, and 24th against the run) that needed the most revamping over the offseason. To that end, the Colts added talent at all three levels in the first three rounds of the draft. Third round pick CB Kevin Thomas is a cerebral corner that should pick up the zone schemes of the Colts quickly, and second round pick LB Pat Angerer, though no athletic standout, is the sort of no nonsense, high productivity LB that the Colts love to rotate onto the field. First round pick Jerry Hughes, on the other hand, was a riskier, but infinitely more exciting pick. A top of the draft athlete who fell largely due to concerns regarding the mental part of his game, Hughes joins a pass rush that already boasts elite DE Dwight Freeney and perennially underrated speed DE Robert Mathis. Even if Hughes plays only somewhat up to his potential as a rookie, the support he’ll give to those two veterans promises to keep this defense operating at an efficient, effective clip, making him an important addition to a defense that relies on speed and is slowly getting older.

In the end, then, the additions and improvements only serve to highlight the remarkable consistency of the Colts. Having come to define the way greatness looks in the NFL, the Colts are now faced with the struggle to meet their own remarkably high standard. Yet it’s the refusal to fail by both its front office and its stars that make the team a consistent contender. Year after year, in the face of a league that sees teams’ fortunes change in a heartbeat, this team displays a remarkable will to survive, to maintain that which they've achieved, where other teams would accept the impossibility of consistency given the circumstances. They don’t gamble to become great; rather, they work even harder to remain great. Having shown no signs of softening that passion, it’s hard to imagine the Colts as anything other than the favorite, especially considering how hard they’ve worked to make it look like they haven’t changed all that much since last year.

Houston Texans

Nietzsche had something to say about the “will to survive” though. To paraphrase him: It’s for pussies. Instead, the driving force of human achievement is, according to him, the “will to power”, a drive to create and dominate. He’d probably like this Texans squad. Guess which passing offense was best in the league last year, with both the leading receiver in terms of yardage and the quarterback with the most yardage and fifth most touchdowns in the NFL? I know, I thought the Saints or Colts would be the answer, too. The Texans had a dominating offense last year through the air. Meanwhile, their defense showed improvement, with their talent loaded line finally gelling and proving strong support against the run (11th in the league). Held back only by a gaping hole at CB (the Dunta Robinson experiment is finally over) and a bizarre meltdown at RB, this team was a game away from the playoffs after a season in which they lost one game by more than one score (and in which they seemed to have a handle on everyone except for their divisional opponents, going a miserable 1-5 in the AFC South).

So, this team’s offseason consisted of doing what they’ve been doing since they took Mario Williams first in 2006 (seriously, Charlie Casserly deserves to be a GM again after how that played out): They’re taking the best possible players, and finding ways to fit them into their system. They did it when Matt Schaub was available in Free Agency; they did it when a 19 year old Amobi Okoye entered the draft in 2007; and they did it this year with CB Karim Jackson and RB Ben Tate. Jackson, though less physically dominant than fellow rookie CB Kyle Wilson, was almost certainly the most pro ready first round corner available, and should make an immediate impact on a pass defense in desperate need of help. RB Ben Tate, the true find of the Texans draft haul, might be the best RB in the draft, with excellent size and strength combined with top flight speed. Combined with Steve Slaton (who just has to be better than last season’s fall from grace), Tate gives the Texans ground game the same versatility they have in the air. The end result is immediate improvement to the team’s weaknesses (The ground game and pass defense were 30th and 18th in the league, respectively), with the potential to turn them into strengths in the next few years.

The question, then, is when talent wins out over tradition, and whether a powerful will to power overcomes an equally powerful will to survive. While the rest of the division seems content to sit by and wait for the Colts to slow down, tweaking their own systems and occasionally catching lightning in a bottle, the Texans have committed to beating the Colts while the Colts are still “THE COLTS,” which is an admirable goal given the complacency of their peers. By piling talent on talent and making risky moves that have panned out, the Texans have positioned themselves this season as the one team with the firepower to actually make a power play at Indy. Ask yourself, does anybody really think they can stop Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, particularly if they have to account for a run game as well? If Karim Jackson makes receivers work a little harder to get open, are blockers going to keep Mario Williams and the rest of the defensive line at bay? Years from now, we may look back and wonder what could have been if the Texans had waited to make their move for a few more years, attacking an older and weaker Colts team, building more slowly and waiting for the throne to open up. Then again, we may look back on this season and remember it as the definitive moment that the Texans identity changed from that of an expansion franchise to a bona fide AFC South dynasty, proving that power has to be taken, not awaited. If that happens, the rest of the division will lament the immediacy of the regime change, seeing as they’ve been preparing for anarchy for so long.

PREDICTION: Texans win the division (followed by the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars). The will to survive is too boring to root for, anyway. Time for the bold to claim their reward.

Premature Evaluations 2010 - AFC West

2010-08-02T15:56:00.005-04:00

With not much time left until the season, and the Bar Exam having eaten my summer alive, we'll be going through Premature Evaluations division by division, explaining why each team is more interesting than you may think, and even picking the team we think will come out on top of each division. Today, we start with the AFC West, in flux even if nobody else realizes it yet.

Kansas City Chiefs

It would have been very easy for Todd Haley and Scott Pioli to come in and build around Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez, and let the team cruise to a mediocre 3rd place finish in the division. They would have certainly avoided the questions about their competency (how quickly people forget that Haley was largely responsible for the turnaround in Arizona and Pioli HELPED BUILD THE PATRIOTS). It would have made things easier for their new franchise quarterback, Matt Cassel, who had absentee targets in Dwyane Bowe (out for five games last season) and Chris Chambers (who didn’t join the team until halfway through the season). Except I think they understood that when it comes to rebuilding in the NFL, one thing rings truer than all else: Scared money don’t make no money.

Instead, they’ve stripped the team to the core and started to rebuild around only the most talented pieces they have, preferring to discover their new identity rather than get by with the old one. The scary thing is that beneath all of the garbage that surrounded the destruction last season, the Chiefs have the makings of a strikingly athletic offense. Generally bad stats (25th in the league) masked a deceptively effective ground game (11th in the league) that highlighted the versatility of Jamaal Charles. With the addition of Dexter McCluster, an equally speedy and multitalented back, the team adds strength to strength, and in doing so (assuming Chambers and Bowe can stay on the field for a full season) they managed to give Cassel the kind of support that allows him to do more while being required to do less. Throw in SS Eric Berry, who might be the best overall player in this draft (joining a pass defense in desperate need of enforcers), and this team has added as much athleticism in a single offseason as any of their competitors.

None of which is to say that things will be pretty next season. Chris Chambers is still, ten years deep, desperately trying to prove he’s an elite talent at WR, and Cassel, though certainly talented, will always be dogged by questions of whether the system or the player was responsible for his breakout year in New England. Still, if the offensive line can gel (only three quarterbacks took more sacks than Cassel last season), the makings of a truly unique offense are all here, with enough dynamic athleticism to attack on all levels. That’s a testament to the faith this front office had in their vision, and that kind of faith is admirable, particularly in the face of the safe paper tiger this team could have been to begin the new decade.

Denver Broncos

I’m genuinely torn here. I believe that Josh McDaniels is the future of NFL coaches. What he did last season with an offense run by Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall, and schemes upon schemes was nothing short of remarkable up until injuries dragged the team down for the back end of the season, proving our long running belief that a system tailored to the talent available will always beat a system dependent on a hypothetically “perfect” roster. The defense relied on an infusion of veteran savvy combining with underutilized talent to keep opponents off balance. Meanwhile, the offense, up until offensive line injuries prevented crucial timing from being a realistic goal, achieved the kind of synergy coaches talk about but rarely achieve. The result was a rigid, yet revolutionary system in the place of the Shanahan fever dreams of years past, one that eschewed familiar stardom for the kind of potency that could beat any opponent on any given week.

But at a certain point, everyone else can’t be totally wrong, can they? Getting rid of Cutler, a freakish talent who could have given McDaniels’s tactics overpowering force, was shortsighted, but arguably necessary after the gambit to get Matt Cassel failed. Failing to bring back defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, on the other hand, was the mark of a leader unwilling to recognize the help he needs. Furthermore, McDaniels’s inability to repair his relationship with WR Brandon Marshall and make the most of TE Tony Scheffler felt less like a desire to create a culture built around a winning system and more like the sort of narrow view of an NFL offense that McDaniels was supposed to defy (while we’re here, it’s worth noting that Marshall, in pouting his way out of Denver, managed to talk his way out of the best offense for a receiver with his size and precise route running, and he’ll never be the same player in Miami, so it’s a bad look for him as well). Even if his intriguing personnel moves pan out, at what point do we stop appreciating what this coach accomplishes and start holding him to the standard of what could have been?

I’m ready to believe for at least one more year that McDaniels isn’t completely on an island yet. My love of Demaryius Thomas is well documented, and with some work on his route running he has the potential to be every bit the receiver Marshall was, with added speed to attack over the top of defenses as well. The selection of Tim Tebow (who will get his own post at some point, I’m sure) turns the “Wild Horses” formation (a more interesting take on the Wildcat) from a gimmick into a threat. If Knowshon Moreno can use his undeniable athleticism to find the holes he missed last year (highlighted by an abysmal average yardage of under 3 yards over the last 4 games of last year), this offense will evolve into a very real, very dynamic threat. If not, then I worry that one day, when working as a successful assistant again, McDaniels will finally regret a league filled with potential allies.

San Diego Chargers

Which brings me to my bigger question: How has AJ Smith escaped stinging criticism for as long as he has? Or am I the only one who noticed that he’s sent away an elite coach (Schottenheimer’s firing after a 14-2 season was ridiculous, and I’m a Norv Turner defender), a Super Bowl winning quarterback (who threw his name into the “best quarterback of this generation” conversation last year), and a top flight running back (said it then, by the way; they should and could have traded Tomlinson and kept Turner). For his next trick, he’s managing to alienate a solid LT (Marcus McNeill) and, most importantly, WR Vincent Jackson, who has been as dangerous as any receiver in football over the past two seasons.

That last name is the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Last season, the Chargers overpowered defensive backfields thanks to imposing size (their top three receivers were all 6’2” or taller, something we’ve been hoping to see for a while), and Vincent Jackson’s ability to use his speed to get into single coverage situations against smaller corners (at 6’5” and 230 pounds, Jackson is both the largest and the fastest of the San Diego receivers). Without Jackson, does anybody really believe that Antonio Gates, finally on the wrong side of 30, is going to make up the difference in the league’s 5th best passing offense? While Ryan Matthews figures to be a solid running back, that’s all he really looks like, making it unlikely he’ll single handedly repair the league’s second worst rushing offense (the small school speedsters translate better to the NFL than “complete backs” like Matthews from less iconic programs, largely because you can’t fake speed).

In the end, Smith seems to be chasing a ring by removing any piece that has been important to the iterations of this team that have failed to win a championship, not realizing that players like Brees and Jackson might be building blocks rather than failed experiments in and of themselves. Unless he’s right about a 6’5”, freakishly fast WR being replaceable on a championship contender, and I personally don’t see how he could be, Smith’s tunnel vision perspective on a championship will be the biggest reason why the AFC West championship will be up for grabs instead of safely in the grasp of the Chargers.

Oakland Raiders

So if half of the division is in some form of rebuilding, and the Chargers are busy finding ways to tie one arm behind their back, and the division is really as wide open as it appears to be, is it so crazy to think that the most talented team wins? And after years of high draft picks developing, the best 2010 draft of anyone in their division, and the addition of a legitimate starting quarterback whose biggest strength happens to match the strengths of his receiving corps, is it really so crazy to think that the Oakland Raiders are the most talented team in the AFC West?

The ground game has the sort of athletic one-two punch that teams kill for, with Michael Bush adding between the tackles force and Run DMC finally having a QB that can make use of his receiving skills. The offensive line, perhaps the team’s most improved unit last year, comes off of a draft in which the team picked up two solid prospects at OT, including Bruce Campbell, whose athletic talent may make him the best tackle in the draft and a steal in the 4th round. Meanwhile, the defense, always surprisingly good against the pass (largely thanks to CB Nnamdi Asomugha, not yet ready to give his crown to Darrelle Revis), saw the team’s first two draft picks add a powerful run stopper at DT in Lamarr Houston (a 6’3”, 305 pound monster with the quickness to do damage in the backfield) and the best interior linebacker in the draft in LB Rolando McClain, both of whom promise to bolster the team’s second biggest weakness, run defense.

As for the team’s biggest weakness, well, he’s been shipped out of town (and, apparently, out of the league), and replaced with QB Jason Campbell, who was never going to be loved in Washington. The facts, however, are these: Campbell had one of the worst offensive lines in the league (giving up 43 sacks, an unacceptable number even taking Campbell’s problems with holding on too long into account), and even with that line and no truly developed receivers other than his TE, Campbell was just above average as a starter. Oh, and he’s never had receivers like he’ll have in Oakland. Chaz Schilens is Vincent Jackson with worse luck (this is his year; just remember I told you so). Zach Miller might be the second coming of Antonio Gates (he was good when JaMarcus was throwing the ball; imagine how he’ll be with Campbell). Darrius Heyward-Bey is entering year two of the three year development track that every receiver who relies on physical dominance rather than NFL polish needs (the Crabtree comparisons were a reach a year ago, and will be even dumber after this season), and he is by all accounts showing marked improvement. Just to top it all off, they added the single fastest player in the draft as a fourth or fifth option in WR Jacoby Ford. If Campbell can throw a decent deep ball, and history has shown that it is the one thing he certainly can do, this offense is going to be able to maximize a talent base that has a higher ceiling than anybody else in their division. If they play the game the way Al Davis has been trying to play it for the better part of a decade, they finally have the firepower to make that system work. All of which is to say that as much as people have been clamoring for a change in philosophy, the Raiders’ best chance to win the division might be to cling to their ancient beliefs while everybody else is scrambling to find themselves.

Prediction: Raiders win the division (followed by the Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs). The smart money gets with the signs of the times while everyone is talking about last year’s results.

Premature Evaluations 2010 - New England Patriots

2010-06-01T11:31:00.003-04:00

We live in an era where there are very few professions, in the traditional sense. Instead, we have trades; discrete tasks to be performed as uniformly and efficiently as possible. “Big picture” people have been exchanged for wunderkind accountants, fitting as much power into as few strokes as possible. Law firms are subdivided to have as few true associates as possible because it’s easier to pay paralegals and staff attorneys to act instead of think (a source of personal frustration on my end). Writers are sacrificed for cameramen because it costs less to create a reality show than it does to develop a story. Math is no longer the good friend of creativity, but its prison warden, and trades are the growth of the black market taking place behind bars. Professions, by contrast, are supposed to be bigger than context; they create the context. They are rocks against which the waves of change beat in vain. Bill Belichick, by this definition, is a football coach by profession, a dying breed in an era that more and more sees coaches as cogs in a larger machine.

Bill Belichick built the damn machine. “Oh, he’s got such good coaches!” The best assistant to leave him just went 8-8 and missed the playoffs on a four game skid. “Scott Pioli was just as important to the dynasty!” Scott Pioli went to Kansas City and promptly bet the farm on Matt Cassel. “His players have always been underrated!” David Givens would like to know if you’re going to finish that sandwich. Aside from Tom Brady, there is nobody who deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as Bill Belichick regarding the legacy the Patriots have established over the last decade. The debate between talent and “culture” with regard to NFL teams exists solely because of what the Patriots have been able to create on the strength of Belichick’s regime. As the team enters the next decade, the question is whether or not one man can still will a group of individuals to synergy. Certainly, the AFC East has been something of an arms race this offseason, but to deride the Patriots for failing to buy into the rapid amassing of loose talents would be like criticizing water for being wet; this team, and the man at the helm, are what they are, and they’ve never professed any desire to be anything else.

What they are, however, is a shape shifting offensive monster that battles their opponents’ strengths by building around the abilities of a surprisingly versatile roster. Wes Welker and Randy Moss combined for 206 of the team’s 390 receptions in 2009, but seven other players had at least 14, five of them catching at least 1 TD, and just one of them, RB Laurence Maroney, averaging less than 8 yards per catch. The result is a passing offense that, though short on pure physical talent, overloads defenses with targets and formations. By the time a team has figured out what skills differentiate Sam Aiken from Julian Edelman, they’re already playing catch up. Rookie WR Taylor Price and Tight Ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski should integrate into this faceless menace seamlessly, giving more weapons to the diverse array. Recognizing the lack of any meaningful ground game (Maroney, the workhorse back averaged a paltry 3.9 yards per carry), Belichick and Brady have changed the way we think of short game offense, turning it into as much of an opportunity to stun reeling defenses as it is a grinding process of inches. At best, teams throw out athletic defenders and hang on for dear life, hoping to win by split seconds. With Brady returning at full health, WR Julian Edelman developing into a deadly slot receiver, and Wes Welker recovering from a season ending injury, teams may not have those precious moments to collect their thoughts that they did last season, making this one of the scarier offenses in the league.

So the fulcrum between success and failure this season lies with the defense, and it is here where we will see just how much a unique coaching system matters. Having made his bones in the past with defenses built on veteran savvy and attention to individual roles, Bill Belichick faces the challenge of grooming young defenders that are high on talent, but questionable with regard to the tricks of the trade. Aside from DE Derrick Burgess, who has never seemed to find his footing in New England, and DT Vince Wilfork, this squad lacks the bearded wisdom that made previous Belichick defenses so frustrating. That said, they’ve got something those teams didn’t have: Speed. Third year MLB Jerod Mayo is a physical beast who anchored a surprisingly stingy defense last season (11th overall), and is as difficult a tackle to break as you’ll find in the league. Second year defensive backs Pat Chung and Darius Butler bring brutality and speed, respectively, to their positions, and put together a surprising 4 INTs between them in their first season. Meanwhile, there are more young guns waiting in the wings courtesy of this past draft. DE Jermaine Cunningham, LB Brandon Spikes, and CB Devin McCourty (who has “scary underrated” written all over him) all are proven defenders at the collegiate level with the physical ability to play their positions (yes, even Spikes, whose slow 40 time will mean less on the defensive interior). With over half of his defensive starting squad consisting of third year players or younger, the questions becomes whether or not Bill Belichick can re-teach the system that has made his team a dynasty in the past to a new crop of defenders.

Do you bet against him at this point? We hate system-think around here, but Belichick has always been the exception due to his ability to turn what could be a “scheme” into something of a “code,” a mentality rather than a script. Where other coaches have become irrelevant with their X’s and O’s, Belichick seems to last because he imposes an on-field lifestyle on his players. He believes in the ability of that code to turn raw talent into proven production, regardless of what players he has or what the rest of the league is doing. Within their own unique physical gifts, his players have one mantra, the now infamous “do your job.” Success or failure this season will decide whether or not this, too, is another system to fade into the annals of history, or if it, like the man who made it famous, will stand as a monument to the Patriots legacy in the NFL, persisting amidst the tides of change.

Optimist/Pessimist – AFC East Draft Class

2010-04-27T13:30:00.005-04:00

Like we do every year, we'll be going division by division taking a look at both sides of the coin for each team's draft haul. Today, we go long on the division we love the most: The AFC East.

New England Patriots

OPTIMIST:

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Bill Belichick hasn’t lost a step. Coming off of a year in which his pass defense was exposed, the evil genius added a corner with the ability to immediately contribute as a third CB and a special teams threat in Devin McCourty. Dude is lightning fast, and could become part of a scary duo with CB Darius Butler across from him. Whether or not that pick proves to be the all things to all people choice New England wants him to be, it’s hard to dispute that the Patriots absolutely found their defensive fixes in Florida defenders Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes. Cunningham, an athletic DE at Florida, should transition to OLB for the Pats, who desperately need youth at the edges. Meanwhile, Spikes, who fell in the draft due to a slow 40 time, moves to the interior, where any speed woes should be masked by a proven knack for reading plays and sticking tackles in the box. Adding these two to Jerrod Mayo means that in one fell swoop the Pats may have completely reloaded their once fearsome pass rush. Finally, TE Rob Gronkowski out of Arizona is a solid pick, but don’t sleep on TE Aaron Hernandez being the real gem at this position of need. Hernandez is, in many ways, a perfect replacement for the recently departed Ben Watson, who never got his due respect in New England. With a similarly well attuned knack for finding the markers and exposing holes in coverages, Hernandez should find himself on the field for longer passing downs. Oh, and they also got Zac Robinson, one of the most athletic quarterbacks on the board and an underrated passer, in the seventh. People who doubt the cold, factory line mentality of players moving in and out of New England need to check this board and remember why this team’s BAD years involve them making the playoffs.

PESSIMIST:

Of the myriad reasons why I hate this team, their near-paranoia about bringing in any attitude to their offense has to be in the top three. Point at Randy Moss all you want, but remember that they ran him through DHS style interrogations before bringing him in, and as one of the most gifted receivers of all time, he’s something of an exception. After him, the whole system has been built on yeoman grunts who know their place and fulfill their limited roles. This year’s combination should include Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, and newly drafted WR Taylor Price, another player with solid gifts who shows very little in the way of dynamic ability. If this seems like an odd criticism to level at a team that has proven themselves so good for so long, remember that they looked at Dez Bryant, who could have given them a number of versatile talents at their second WR spot, eventually filling in for Moss as the top dog, and traded away to fill in another cog in the machine. That decision to stick with what they can predict instead of building around an undeniable talent embodies everything wrong with this team. Yes, they ran the most impressive offense in NFL history with their faceless army mentality, but it’s worth pointing out that they haven’t won the Super Bowl since ditching players like Corey Dillon and Deion Branch, players who brought some attitude to their roles, but who also could extend beyond their neatly defined positions. It’s a shame that, having spent so long in their new rigidity, the Patriots seem almost afraid to allow for a return to any of the edge that made them less precise, but still made them winners.

Miami Dolphins

OPTIMIST:

DT Jared Odrick is the perfect addition to Tony Sparano’s defense, and with Mike Nolan coming to town should find his relentless motor and underrated smart play at the center of a pass defense that couldn’t pressure opposing quarterbacks. For a team whose identity under Bill Parcells has been predicated on the idea of brutality in the trenches, Odrick is a great value pick late in the first round. Still, the world has to revolve around the addition of WR Brandon Marshall, who finally gives the team the legitimate number one receiver they’ve lacked since...um…maybe Wes Welker? Maybe? Marshall, a huge target with great hands and a willingness to extend himself for the catch, is going to work wonders for the questionable accuracy of Chad Henne, and could buy make the Miami run game even more impressive by keeping teams honest in the intermediate pass game. All in all, this draft was a great example of a team maintaining its identity while repairing obvious deficiencies.

PESSIMIST:

It wouldn’t be a Parcells team if it didn’t have the stink of system-think all over it. Ted Ginn Jr. was never going to be the dynamic offensive workhorse Cam Cameron stupidly tried to make him, but the old adage is still true; you can’t coach speed. While teams had always been able to bracket and safety-help Ginn into oblivion due to his small size and limited between-the-hashmarks ability, it was undeniable that there were flashes of Ginn’s physical gifts being able to contribute to a successful NFL team (particularly on special teams). So, after finally picking up Brandon Marshall to be the monstrous top dog through the air, why ship Ginn away for peanuts? Isn’t it worth seeing whether or not, finally freed from the spotlight, Ginn can contribute over the top of defenders in a way that no other WR on the roster, even Marshall, has the speed to contribute? Yes, he was a dumb pick in 2007, and he hasn’t proven himself to be a world-beater, but if he no longer has to be one, why punish him for that? Mistaking failure to meet unreasonable expectations for general failure is the mark of tunnel-vision, and is an unfortunate turn for the team that revolutionized the way we think an NFL offense works two years ago.

Buffalo Bills

OPTIMIST:

First off, don’t sleep on WR Marcus Easley in the 4th, who is a matchup nightmare out of the slot at 6’3” and has underrated downfield speed. But the real story, of course, is C.J. Spiller, the draft’s most electrifying player, and the new standard bearer for talent over system around these parts. Buffalo, in the face of obvious problems along the offensive line, serious questions under center, and a porous run defense, chose instead to add to proven commodities Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson another RB who, though thrilling, will not be on the field for most offensive snaps. Could they afford to take CJ Spiller? They couldn’t afford NOT to take Spiller. In a division in which the competition is engaged in an arms race, let’s applaud the Bills for refusing to surrender as a mid-market also ran. For all of the additions via free agency in the AFC East, there isn’t a single player in the division with Spiller’s potential for destruction. He can play WR, return kicks, and give a scary change of pace at RB. If the Bills can find a way to get him involved in the offense, are you really willing to bet against Spiller single handedly keeping his team competitive against better rosters on paper? As someone who watched Brian Westbrook and Leon Washington turn sub par offenses into playoff teams, I’m saying that Spiller is the kind of player who can do the same. Scared money don’t make money, and Buffalo, the knife in the AFC East gunfight, showed they’re set on cutting fools with this pick.

PESSIMIST:

The thing about Westbrook and Washington, however, is that they were taken in the 3rd and 4th round, respectively. They were fantastic surprises, but they were surprises nonetheless. Spiller, by contrast, is a first round pick; this isn’t a sneaky subversion, it’s a declaration of war. In the middle of a league leading playoff drought, with so little around Spiller to help, doesn’t this team run the risk of entering into the realm of spectacle, an arena the Raiders only recently escaped (Campbell at least shows they’re TRYING to build). Look, I want Spiller to succeed, and I respect the hell out of Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey for taking a risk on Spiller’s obvious potential for revolution, but this is a team that is in need of serious foundational work. As much as I want to see Spiller, and the Bills working around him, prove that an incredible talent can change the way the league works, I almost feel bad that this is the team that has decided to take that chance. Also, I’m all for local heroics, but Levi Brown?

New York Jets

OPTIMIST:

All flights grounded, people. CB Kyle Wilson is considered by most to be the best cover corner in the draft, and thanks to a continuing fascination with physicality over skill at corner (seriously, how many more Justin Miller and DeAngelo Hall clones do we need?) he fell to the Jets with the 29th pick of the draft. So in case you’re not keeping up, that’s three first round corners (two of whom have still proven to be top tier talents) in the Jets defensive backfield, pushing smart, but slow Dwight Lowery to the more manageable dime slot. If opponents thought it was difficult to deal with the Jets defense last year, this year they’ll be lucky if their quarterback doesn’t leave the game with PTSD. Meanwhile, for all the talk of the Jets being a “win now” team, the remainder of their draft showed remarkable foresight, picking up OG Vlad Ducasse to develop along the interior of the o-line, speedy RB Joe McKnight, whose fall was the result of NCAA issues (the dumbest reason for draft falls), and FB John “The Terminator” Conner, who will be groomed under the wind of Tony Richardson. Not always an option to build forward while participating in an arms race, but the Jets certainly came close this year.

PESSIMIST:

Did the Jets need to do Neon Leon like that? Few players in the league have Washington’s ability to contribute effectively at so many different spots on the field, and the Jets decided to let him loose for a 5th rounder that yielded them a FB. If I’m going to get upset when other teams jettison talent for the sake of systems, it seems only fair that I’ll have to take the Jets to task should Joe McKnight prove to be little more than a spot back, something Washington was only called by people who never watched him play (seriously, that 2006 season belonged to him and Pennington). Certainly, every pick the Jets made was a great value selection, but if I see Danny Woodhead lined up in the backfield on even one third down I’m going to revisit the decision to ship away a player who was our C.J. Spiller before there was a C.J. Spiller for the sake of cementing an offensive system and saving a couple of bucks. Whether or not this is a case of moving on for value or a team getting wishboned between the future and the present will make the difference.

LIVE BLOGGING THE SECOND ROUND OF THE 2010 NFL DRAFT

2010-04-23T17:54:00.027-04:00

8:24
Moving over to the Twitter account (@titraffic). See you there.

8:14
Is there a QB in this draft that this panel DOESN'T love? McCoy is a dink and dunk passer who is undersized and reaped rewards from great tools around him.

8:09
First real "What?" pick of the draft for the Browns. This is where Mangini's blinders come into play; he needs a WR, but he takes another RB for a team that probably is stocked as they could be at the position. There's a different between personality and schtick.

8:04
The hell is wrong with everyone, letting Houston cruise to Ben Tate this late in the draft? That offense is going to circle the globe in yardage. No holes at the skill spots, and the line is getting better.

7:46
The thing nobody seems to realize is that last year's Pats would have been legit with a more talented defense...AND THEY'RE GOING ALL DEFENSE SO FAR. Cunningham is a little light on his tackles, but he's fast, and he's smart. Ugh, I hate that team.

7:36
THAT, my friends, is how you replace Chester Taylor. Gerhart is going to take a lot of hits off of AP. Still, the man could button a button or two on his flannel shirt.

7:25
I AM LOVING THE 49ERS DRAFT. Seriously, FTW and their "you need a mediocre QB to replace your solid game manager QB".

7:20
And Clausen finally is off the board to the Panthers. Great move, John Fox, getting a project you don't have time to develop when you have a quarterback who has ALREADY SHOWN YOU HE CAN WIN GAMES. Stupid, stupid, stupid. PS, what is the over/under for months prior to Clausen getting decked by Steve Smith?

7:06
Seriously, two well thought out, not too flashy defensive picks in a row for the Raiders? Is Al Davis dead and nobody told us?

7:04
A black preacher just announced that Sergio Kindle is now a Raven. I mean, at what point do the Ravens figure they'll need a guy who can run down the field on offense?

6:59
Because these guys were SO excited for this on ESPN...ON TO THE DEUCE!

6:50
Holmgren has been convinced by Mangini's success with personnel up to this point. Problem is that it only applies to defense. If he gets Revis, he should also answer for Kellen Clemens.

6:47
When did the NFL draft go all gimmicky SNL episode with the cameos? Is Joe Namath backstage? They probably want to get him out here before he vomits or inappropriately grabs an intern.

6:44
Also, the way Mel is talking someone should have Clausen on suicide watch.

6:43
If you take Benn with a second round pick, you're basically drafting a big, fast body, because nothing about his career in Illinois was that impressive. Not that Juice Williams wasn't to blame for that, but still. At least you get a very athletic pass attack in Tampa Bay (Winslow, Clayton, and now Benn).

6:39
I'll say this for the Browns: They are absolutely committed to building this team in Mangini's vision. Two defensive backfield picks. I'm intrigued that they didn't go with Mays though. Considering they took Haden over Wilson, you would think they were ready to go all SPEED KILLS on defense.

6:33
Dexter McCluster makes that Chiefs backfield speedy as all hell, but I don't see why you need him when you've already got Jamaal Charles and you still need a WR. Wouldn't be a Pioli pick if it made sense immediately, though.

6:26
"Matt Cassel never played at USC" is Gruden's excuse?!?!? Please never let this man coach in the NFL again. Chris Simms is STILL ruined because of this bowl haircut loser.

6:25
Why on earth would Scott Pioli, the Stringer Bell of GMs, take Clausen and give up on Cassel after just one year? Dude had NO protection or defensive support. I somehow doubt Pioli is running scared.

6:22
Mel is not a dude who understands the value of investing HEAVILY at positions of need. Listen, Mel, unless Golden Tate can stop the run, the Bucs don't need him right now.

6:11
You know what? I love that Rams pick. Taking a tackle there to complement last year's tackle, and this year's new QB is the way a 1-15 team picks up 5-6 new wins in one year. Love the focused revitalization.

6:06
Kiper is STILL going on about how teams blew it by not taking Clausen. Mel, you're supposed to see a doctor for erections that last this long.

6:02
Roger Goodell showed up for this? Good to know I'm not the only one with nothing better to do.

5:55
Okay, let's paint, exercise, and do better this time.

2010 NFL DRAFT LIVE BLOG

2010-04-22T19:37:00.017-04:00

11:00
This sucked. Second round tomorrow. Patrick Robinson is a waste. Goodnight.

10:25
Anybody else feel like Micky D is playing chess to the old school's checkers?

10:05
Dez Bryant went after Thomas, which makes sense. But is any pick more perfectly matched than Bryant to cowboys? Maybe Morgan to TEN?

9:55
McDaniels is that dude. Thomas is Marahall tools plus downfield speed.

9:30
Because what Big Ben needs is MORE protection..,

9:29
And with that, Derrick Morgan became the steal of the draft. Perfect pick where identity meets talent.

9:23
Giants made the mistake of seeing a need, seeing tremendous upside, and projecting that into the hole. Hope for the bed, but...JaMarcus Russell on defense.

9:15
And that, friends, is why a college coach shouldn't get the keys to the kingdom.

8:30
Changing locales, but I think we have our first real reach with McClain to Oakland (still applies) Why?

8:20
How is "physical" versus "cover corner" still a debate? How many DeAngelo Halls do we need to go through before this gets settled? YOU TAKE THE GUY WHO CAN PLAY THE POSITION, not look really fast trying to play the position.

8:17
Anybody else feel a trade down coming? If Mangini still had any juice in the front office, this pick would become something like eight 7th rounders over the next several years.

8:14
Russell Okung is the perfect pickup for the Seahawks. Gives them the O-Line juice they had when they ran the NFC West, buys old man Hassy some time, and maybe, just maybe, gets that passing game back to where it needs to be.

8:11
After watching that footage, I am convinced that Pete Carroll is the Highlander. A really chilled out Highlander.

8:10
I refuse to believe that 239 year old Monte Kiffin said that five minute rant Mort describes without a whole lot of drool.

8:06
Seriously though, Eric Berry is the truth, and anyone who bought the Pioli swerve that he didn't take safeties this high never watched the tape on this kid. The ceiling is Ed Reed. That alone is worth a top five pick, and he's already got coverage tools that make him NFL ready.

8:04
Eric Berry announced his status as a Chief on the phone before the pick is in. Dude, spoiler alert.

7:58
Williams over Okung is an interesting choice, particularly when you consider they have three different backs who all need good run blocking, and this dude is not well thought of on the run.

7:55
Seriously, without Keyshawn this draft panel is missing something. Specifically, a flare burn on my monitor.

7:51
WOW McCoy looks significantly smaller than Suh when you see them back to back. Dude is a speedster, but you have to worry about his size/strength issues.

7:45
Screw it, I'm saying that the Lions make the playoffs next season. They've built too much at too many positions of need, and they have that fun mix of youth and veteran savvy.

7:42
Bradford over Suh is the new JaMarcus over...well pretty much everybody else in that class.

7:38
And with that, the Rams comitt to another five years of futility. Seriously, HIS SHOULDER IS SHOT AND THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE PLAYERS BETTER THAN HIM ON THE BOARD.

7:30
Oh yeah, we're up.

What Dreams May Come 2010 – Derrick Morgan

2010-04-17T12:59:00.001-04:00

“Polished” has become something of a backhanded compliment. We use the term on rookies only in relation to someone else who lacks this “finished” quality, always with the implication that somehow the fact that another player is “unpolished” means that he has greater potential. To be whole is to be beyond the potential for growth, or worse still beyond the need for coaching into one’s eventual role as an NFL player. There is, of course, an element of self-serving coach speak to this; they need “unpolished” players to make themselves feel as important as they ought to be (there is no coach in professional sports as simultaneously undervalued and self-deluded as the NFL coach). Still, this idea isn’t so foreign to a culture that constantly has an eye to the “next one” (minus one for referencing Jay-Z). We elected our president on a platform of “hope” and “change”, both goals that require we start at a place of incompleteness. We’ve made fetishes of flaws. On the field, this means that we look at players like JaMarcus Russell or Charles Rogers and daydream about what they could become. In doing so, we romanticize a journey that statistics say is likely to indeed be more satisfying than the destination.

Derrick Morgan is, without a doubt, the most polished defensive end in this draft, if not the most polished defender, and yet we’ve hardly heard anything about him. The highest he goes in any ESPN mock draft is the 12th pick (to a Dolphins 3-4 scheme that would be a bad look), and I’ve seen at least 2-3 more television spots discussing Jerry Hughes or Jared Odrick, despite their having been nowhere near as dominant on the college level. Hell, even Jason Pierre-Paul, a guy with one year’s worth of NCAA football experience, gets more buzz for his “upside” than Derrick Morgan does for three years over which he managed to grow by leaps and bounds.

Looking at the footage, however, the one thing that jumps out about Morgan is the way in which his top flight physicality (which, despite the lack of press, is very much a factor) is paired with a unique mind for his position. He’s using first moves to draw blockers out of position. He’s shifting inside to follow the ball carrier before blockers can engage. He’s relentlessly pursuing the ball without over committing to a lane that will take him out of position. At a level filled with players who physically outmatch their opponents, Morgan wins because he outplays them, a subtle difference that points toward a knowledge of the game rather than a knowledge of one’s own ability, something that, at just about every other position in the draft, coaches drool over. Compared to the tape of many of his peers, one would be hard pressed to find a game so well developed, lacking in real flaws or points at which one says “well, but for that, he could be a star.”

The problem is that we don’t discuss him as a potential star at all. We become enamored with tape of Jason Pierre-Paul leaping four feet in the air to block a throwing lane or Jerry Hughes moving in a blur past a stunned offensive tackle and think “man, those guys, they’ve got NFL gifts.” Morgan’s balance of physical talent with old soul savvy, by comparison, is less captivating to our aesthetically drawn senses. Never mind that Paul’s mid air flights of fancy are frequently timed so poorly that they take him out of a play completely, or that Jerry Hughes’s speed takes him drastically behind the ball carrier as often as it makes him a threat; THESE GUYS HAVE GIFTS THAT NEED TO BE SHAPED. We assume that there will be an inevitable growth from boyhood to manhood, ignoring that Jung built an entire theory of psychology on the idea that people frequently never move from point A to point B. We forget all too easily that aesthetic wonder, though not without merit, needs ethical grounding in order to be of any real value to society.

I say “we” on all of the above because I’m as guilty as anyone. A recurring theme around here is that completed pictures are so much more “boring” than those with room left to create. I stand by that as a general sentiment, but watching Morgan has made me realize that there needs to be some balance. “Pretty” without a foundation of right or wrong technique is as boring as anything else because of its neutrality; we all can like pretty things, regardless of their real worth. It is in balancing these aesthetic gifts with correct application, or even in “wrong” but revolutionary application, that they really have significance in the league. In this way, maybe “creation” doesn’t necessarily need to happen in the filling of gaping holes, but rather in the development of an already existing balance. To say that Derrick Morgan is “complete” is not to say that he is “finished”. In the right hands, Morgan could become an indispensable part of a defensive scheme, particularly considering he has shown the football acumen take advantage of opponents’ weaknesses. Far from being the sort of player that can’t be coached up, Morgan’s “polished” qualities could allow him to gain the most from a coach with unique tactics toward which Morgan can apply his well-honed skill set. Fans and coaches don’t get to take the credit for discovering his potential; they just get to appreciate what a fully realized player can do when veteran mindset meets rookie motor skills.

If all of this sounds like I’m turning my back on “upside,” well, maybe I am a little. I still believe in the idea that players with incredible raw gifts can and should be molded by coaching and experience into players that will alter the course of the league…but getting older makes the idea of waiting on “potential” less and less appealing. There’s something to be said for the satisfaction of not having to worry about a player ever “arriving.” Derrick Morgan doesn’t have physical tools to drastically change the way the game is played, but he does bring a mind that most rookies, particularly most rookie defenders, need years to acquire. Maybe that itself is a shift in league values, placing mind over matter at an age when the reverse is traditionally true. If the future needs freaks, it also needs new generations of field generals, and Morgan brings into sharp focus the value of understanding how the game is and isn’t played at a young age. If the draft is a young man’s circus, then Morgan’s prematurely aged game is a reminder that while nobody goes to watch the ringmaster, he’s the guy that makes everyone else understand where the should be.

Ghost Whispering

2010-04-12T17:20:00.002-04:00

This is why the right-way NFL will fail. It has to fail. Things that don’t make sense must always fail, or people will continue to replicate them, and then we’re moving toward something other than that which is best, in this case the best possible football, something that the NFL has been and should continue to be about at its core. That said, if there was going to be a team that worshipped at the feet of monuments to Vince Lombardi and Tom Landry and Chuck Noll, it was going to be the Steelers. That’s fine, too; just because a generation is dying out doesn’t mean it shouldn’t have a team. What bothers me is the lack of any critical thought whatsoever (at least, this certainly seems to be the case when it’s a young black athlete involved…eager to see how the team deals with Big Ben…). Holmes smoked some pot and wrote some tasteless things on the internet? Great, send him to the dean from Animal House, because that’s the only person I know who gives a damn about that sort of thing.

The fact of the matter is that NFL teams are no longer moral arbiters for the societies in which they exist, despite what Roger Goodell would have you believe, and when they try to act like they are, they fail even worse. Big Ben, James Harrison, these are all Steelers who could just as easily be ejected on the logic the Steelers applied to Holmes. Somehow sending a slightly troubled top tier WR to another team where he’ll achieve success sends a message other than “we are stubbornly stuck in our narrow view of what is and isn’t important in the league”? You don’t like him? Find a way to work with him so that his undeniable talent works for your team. You really don’t like him? Keep him on the bench for a couple of games; then HE is the one getting the message. NFL teams as judges and juries only seem to either minimize actual crimes by overstating the importance of the trivial.

The point is that the idea that we “send messages” to third parties through the lives of players is one of the aspects of old school, group-think right-way NFL football that needs to die sooner rather than later. Scapegoats are the trademark of backwards civilizations, and as far as the NFL goes, this is only slightly dumber than the McNabb trade, because at least the Eagles got a second round pick and had a backup plan. Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin we have teams like the Jets, Bengals, and Patriots, who all seem to get that we’re living in an age of shifting value scales, with the shift being away from morality tales and towards maximizing efficiency. Certainly, there are exceptions (though if Leonard Little’s case didn’t’ cross the line, what does?), but Holmes is far from the sort of case that establishes the ethics of an organization. Instead, it just reflects a bafflingly shortsighted view of what is and is not important to a football team. The Jets will live with a four game suspension, and will put a system of incentives and disincentives in place to maximize Holmes’s potential in New York. They embrace that they are an economic entity out to use economic tools to maximize success. Meanwhile the Steelers will have gutted their talent base on offense for the sake of sending some obscure message to…well, that’s the question. Do we really think that this is affecting Roethlisberger one way or another? Do fans even care about weed anymore (more than they do about their drunk creep of a QB)?

Instead, this seems to be a message not to any person or persons, but instead to a bygone era, to the same dead statues of former legends that would have done what they just did. If the McNabb trade was a sacrifice at the altar of winners/“winners”, this was a nod to an era where you could choose between winning, losing, and “winning OUR way”. Thankfully, that was the first element of the right-way NFL to die, leaving only a choice between two opposites, removing the heavy handed morality play from what is a philosophically complicated and brutal game. The choice of “right/wrong” (again, clear exceptions aside) has been left to the courts and the commissioner (the only good product of Goodell’s conduct policy). All that is left for the teams to decide is how to best win, nothing more (and yes, this sort of simple economics can and should consider personal issues as they relate to a player and his team). The statues and monuments are just that: Memories, and as it turns out, Al Davis, who will never be so well memorialized by the league, might have been right after all when it came to how teams should win.

Afternoon Reading - 4/6/2010

2010-04-06T13:08:00.003-04:00

- If you're not already reading the excellent Cleveland Frowns, then fix that today. Frownie digs deep into why Holmgren's public stance on Jimmy Clausen may have hurt the team's options on draft day. While Frownie and I disagree on certain things (suffice to say he is not buying a "FREE SENECA WALLACE" t-shirt), I absolutely agree with him on this. That team has enough needs that the flexibility to trade or use draft picks however they see fit is a must. Teams may be less willing to trade up thanks to this, and Cleveland's needs, particularly if Eric Berry is off of the board, would be best suited with a move down in the round and additional draft picks. Also, we agree on Jared Odrick's importance as a smart, physical defensive lineman. Oddly enough, Odrick's style would be perfect for more flexible fronts (the reason I want him to be a Jet), but he's tailor made for Mangini's rigid 3-4 scheme, with the size and athleticism to become an excellent pass rush weapon. A rare player who can succeed with or without rigid structure.

Evening Reading - 4/5/2010

2010-04-05T19:26:00.002-04:00

- Head over to Second String Fullback, where the guys have less enthusiasm than I do for Donovan McNabb, but they're still optimistic. I'm clearly the only one who believes that three guys who are old, but not THAT old can take advantage of fresh legs during the game and amount to a reliable, if unspectacular running game. Solid read from a solid blog.

Don't Buy the Cool

2010-04-05T15:28:00.006-04:00

In the dead of night, on a national holiday no less, two of the league’s most storied franchises changed their entire image and strategy, as well as the face of their division (if not the league as a whole). What has followed has been bizarrely relaxed, with the media and the teams selling this as a simple business transaction, just the way of their world. Make no mistake; this alters the world of the NFL down to its core, from the signifiers we see in the public speech to the fundamental convictions that have driven the league throughout the modern era.

On a game strategy level, the NFC East just got completely upended. The Redskins, who for so long have been making desperate grabs for the talent to keep up with their more organically constructed peers, have finally found the piece that lets them take the lead. McNabb, unlike every other high profile acquisition they’ve made, has value outside of himself; he validates the previous decisions, giving them value they may not have otherwise had. Any Washington fan that isn’t excited about having their offense led by McNabb instead of Jason Campbell doesn’t deserve a winning team because they don’t understand what a “winner” is. Whether or not McNabb was ever going to achieve ultimate victory in a city that refused to embrace him is one thing (last I checked, though, there was still crime in Gotham City...); it is another thing entirely to say that McNabb isn’t a winner. He’s missed the playoffs just twice in his entire career, and has a postseason resume that every quarterback without a ring should envy. The man knows what victory tastes like. Oh, and he’s at his best when he’s pissed; check what he did after his benching two seasons ago.

He’s also one of the most statistically dominant quarterbacks of the last decade, putting up all-world numbers with a faceless gang of second tier talents (with one very high profile exception). On Washington, he enters an offense with similarly unheralded pass catchers, except this group is made up of potential entering its prime (whatever that means). Fred Davis, Devin Thomas, and Malcom Kelly are entering the all important third year, this time with a quarterback who has made a career out of marking unmarked terms at receiver. Chris Cooley is the truth, and is probably writing an “inappropriate” blog post as we speak. Buying into McNabb is, in essence, buying into the foundation the Redskins have already been building. Throw in the possibility of a franchise altering rookie left tackle (Okung) and a ground game that will be built on cycling fresh legs (as opposed to the previous “let’s recklessly endanger Clinton Portis” plan), and it’s hard not to feel the change in the air of the NFC East.

If the battle strategy aspects of this is bewildering in its implications, the war strategy aspects are damn near unprecedented. These two teams hate each other. They bitterly loathe losing to one another. The thought of either one of these teams doing anything to avoid harming the other team seems crazy to anyone who has watched this rivalry, let alone actually helping them succeed. Yet here we see a kind of “I’m OK; you’re OK” social redistribution that runs against every competitive football front office philosophy we’ve known. Any football philosophy, and certainly those driving division rivalries, has historically dictated that one thing is true: You win the war by focusing on winning the individual battles. Your team succeeds based on causing your opponents for the season to fail, and there are literally no opponents that need to be defeated more than divisional rivals. Certainly both sides are engaging in gamesmanship, with each thinking they’ve outsmarted the other, but that sort of shrewd negotiation is meant for distant enemies to use across oceans; blood feuds at the doorstep get settled with silence or violence. In jettisoning McNabb, the Eagles have essentially said that their enemy, the Redskins, isn’t as threatening as history has taught us, or that the rivalry was all business, with this transaction simply another calculation in the ledgers of competing firms. Two of the teams that helped create the metaphor of football rivalry as war have traded swords for calculators and soldiers for accountants. The blood is removed from the blood feud.

Of course, this sort of tidy endpoint ignores that there is an enemy in all of this. However the teams and the media may downplay it, the Eagles have exchanged rivalry built on history for enmity built on personal passion, because this is VERY personal to Donovan McNabb. You think he was insulted by the idea that the organization he’d given his legacy to was now set against him staying? What does it say that the same organization, rather than exile him to irrelevance, has made him a pawn in their “greater” war? Fine, they say that they were trying to respect his wishes, but how often do people in any relationship say things acting as dares, to see just what the other party thinks of what they’ve built? Well, in moving McNabb to the Redskins, the Eagles have given him his answer. This is the only thing worse than love becoming hate; this is indifference. Trading McNabb to the Redskins isn’t “I don’t love you anymore,” but rather “I don’t think I ever loved you at all.”

Ironically, that’s the answer that makes blood boil hottest. Every time McNabb sets foot on the field to face his old team, he’ll seek to force their acknowledgement the only way left, by killing them. Every time the Skins go to Philadelphia, the boos he heard on draft day will have been validated as the truth behind a decade of false friendship hiding cold utility, and unlike so many other players who fall victim to what is the “simple business” of football, he’ll be angry, whether or not he ever admits it. That anger is what will define this rivalry for as long as he plays in Washington. What was once “we don’t like them because that’s the way it is” is now “we don’t like them because of HIM.” Personally, I’m glad to see a feud in the league with a little flesh behind it; it gives the passion significance beyond the numbers. Still, one has to wonder whether or not the Eagles ever stopped to consider that they’ve exchanged their war for a vendetta, and that turning Donovan McNabb into an enemy, after he spent a career building goodwill and saw it become something dirty, makes things much more complicated than they ever intended.

What Dreams May Come – Demaryius Thomas

2010-03-30T17:39:00.005-04:00

(For the soundtrack)

I really, really hate bringing another prospect down to highlight a personal favorite’s talent, but it’s really the only way I can get my point across here. Dez Bryant, pretty much the consensus first WR drafted in the upcoming draft, had his best year as a sophomore in 2008, when he put up 1480 yards on 87 receptions (17.0 avg), and caught 19 TD. He stands 6’2”, weighs 215 pounds, and despite so-so top end speed is a very difficult tackle to make for smaller cornerbacks. He has all the tools to be a Derrick Mason or Anquan Boldin caliber possession receiver, and I want to say up front that ANY team should, at worst, be happy to get that in the first round (and THRILLED with that later in the first and beyond). You knew all of this, though, because you’ve heard of him thanks to ESPN reporting his various “scandals” (his suspension this past season was officially when I turned on the NCAA as an exploitative labor organization) paired with a major college program’s offense being built around him. He’s a star, and there are many good arguments to be made that he deserves this status.

Why, then, aren’t we talking about Demaryius Thomas as an unquestionable top 10 pick? Well, the problem quite frankly, is where Thomas comes from, specifically an option offense, which limited his opportunities to prove his potential. On physical tools alone, he’s bigger (6’3”, 229 pounds) and faster than Bryant, and he comes from an equally well known program. His statistics are equally impressive by comparison. Yes, Thomas put up 1154 yards, over 300 fewer than Bryant. What that doesn’t tell you is that he did so on just 46 receptions, just slightly more than half of the number Bryant got, for an NCAA leading 25.1 yards per catch. Oh, and he had 8 TD to boot on that paltry number of attempts. Yes, it’s dangerous to extrapolate statistics outside of context, but does it really take an unreasonable stretch to say that the numbers actually point to Thomas being much, much better as a prospect than any other receiver on the board?

(For the highlights)

And really, context is what is sorely missing from any analysis of Thomas as a football player. The victim of the most drastic system shifts in NCAA football, Thomas went from being the top target in a pro style offense to a nifty toy in Paul Johnson’s team building, yet individual masking option offense. Josh Nesbitt, a QB who will make an interesting project for some NFL team, is no elite passing prospect, making those throws that did go Thomas’s way often off target, making Thomas’s statistical consistency in a grounded offense (he had 8 games with a TD, never failed to catch a pass in any game, and had 10 games of 70 yards or more) all the more impressive. Looking at how often Thomas had to adjust his body to make a play on the ball, and even then was able to use his size to lose defenders, you would think that the media would be talking about what Thomas could do given enough air and opportunity. Yet it is precisely those tools that made him a success that have scouts doubting his ability at the next level. Questions about his route running, and even the fact that he hasn’t had to master a pro style offense, all show a refusal to see beyond the context, as if it was Thomas’s security blanket instead of his prison. I highly doubt Thomas begged for a system that wouldn’t teach him to be a pro caliber WR, and yet somehow the fact that he didn’t rail against change makes him too raw for success at the next level (remind me, what do position coaches do again?). Of course if he did make an issue of his system, not only would that have hindered all of us the opportunity to see undeniable talent (regardless of the context), but it would also have made him a “problem child”. That’s the thing about context; the outside observer can shape it in their mind, but those on the inside can never truly escape it.

All of this is why I’m hoping that some team with a need for real vertical athleticism that has both the coaching staff and the possession receiver support to help Thomas grow into the details of the pro game will take a chance on Thomas in the first round. Because the only way for Thomas to rise above the context of his past is to arrive at a place that needs him as much as he needs them. We’re big on “freedom” for talents in the NFL, and only the freedom of desperation mixed with hope will let Thomas prove himself as a pro (instead of a “limited” college player) and grow at a natural pace (because yes, he will need to learn the ins and outs of NFL receiving…JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER WR IN THE DRAFT). If a team doesn’t have the inclination to take Brandon Marshall (which they really should have by now), isn’t this the natural next move for the kind of vertically limited teams that are looking at Marshall. Isn’t Seattle all about creating a new image now, starting with a more threatening passing offense? Isn’t Cleveland desperate for an over the top physical deep threat to finally turn their underrated possession receiver mob from bland to devastatingly effective? Just about every first round skill position talent in the NFL draft comes from an offense built around them. Their context was tailored to their immense potential. In Demaryius Thomas we are looking at a player that maximized his potential during his time in college, and could actually view the NFL as a place to roam MORE freely. Get over the option problem, scouts; a wise man once said that it ain’t where you’re from, after all.

What Dreams May Come 2010 - Ndamukong Suh

2010-03-26T16:45:00.002-04:00

We’ve become far too comfortable with the term “monster”. In an effort to keep us afraid, the 24 hour news cycle has started labeling anything evil, or even just bad in some cases as the result of monsters, as if people doing monstrous things are monsters by definition. This is, of course, no truer than saying that a business traveler who flies with frequency is a bird. Mere men as monsters makes them seem distant and easy, as if they succeed only because we don’t know what they’re doing. But real monsters, the kind that existed in myth before we needed to make everyone afraid of everything for financial or political gain, are monsters because they will not be stopped by our knowledge or tactics. They will not stop at all; it isn’t in their nature. Monsters just keep coming, keep attacking, keep hunting you, and the worst of them are always a step ahead of you, meeting you with teeth bared as you change direction to escape or laughing at an attack that they always knew was coming. We fear monsters because of not only the things they do, but also the terrifying way they are. Ndamukong Suh, then, has the potential to be the scariest monster in football.

All of this is to say that the Rams stand at the doorway of making this year’s stunning draft mistake, the biggest since the JaMarcus Russell debacle. They’re about to take Sam Bradford because while Ndamukong Suh is the greatest talent in this draft, he doesn’t fit the need that they have at quarterback, the “most important” position. If you would give me just one moment, I can’t think of anything stupider than the idea that because one position is perceived as more important than another, that somehow makes up for a huge disparity in talent between two players. If anything, shouldn’t that make a team LESS likely to draft a quarterback who could be “good” with the first overall pick? Meanwhile, Suh could change the position of DT (this sounds more hyperbolic than it is; the first overall pick should do something uniquely special at his position). Suh’s physicality (5.03 second 40, 35.5 inch vertical, and 32 reps on the bench press) is such that he has the ability to shift gears and use the threat of his direct attack to create chaos by dropping back. In zone coverage, he has the quickness of a linebacker, finding ways to disrupt passes and throw off quarterbacks who think they’ve found timing. Even Albert Haynesworth, the most highly regarded DT in the league, doesn’t have this proficiency in the defensive backfield. Suh is a Predator in a DT landscape filled with Mike Myers clones, able to spring traps as easily as he can aggressively shatter the safety of the offensive backfield.

Of course, this versatility is the twist that makes Suh unique; what makes him a monster are his pass rushes. His beautiful, terrible, deceptively simple pass rushes. Watch the video and witness the terrible truth that he doesn’t stop. Whether the play lasts three seconds or thirteen Suh is always advancing, always attacking, and always present in the quarterback’s state of mind. There’s good reason for this; Suh is scariest when he appears to have been lost in the play. His ability to manhandle offensive linemen is something that happens so often that it becomes almost commonplace (ALMOST…I want to be clear that there is nothing commonplace about his physical dominance on the field), making the image of him forcing linemen back and closing in on a quarterback like Poe’s pendulum lose some of its rightful terror. What you never really get used to are the plays where it looks like the offense has shaken him, only to have him pop into the action from out of nowhere. Watch the highlight reel for the plays where he vanishes from sight and then suddenly reappears to pounce on the ball carrier seconds later. THAT is some monster action right there. The same relentless pursuit that makes him push through blockers is what has quarterbacks shaken even when he’s not around. They know he’s coming, because they’ve seen the same tape we have, and they know that he’s not going to stop until they act or get crushed. He’s Jaws, or maybe even death itself, closing in and terrifying even when he’s not immediately visible simply by virtue of his existence. Ask Soren or Ivan what that sort of proximity to death does to a man.

If the thought of Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc is exciting, then the thought of him entering the league feeling slighted has me thrilled. This sort of versatility combined with relentless, unstoppable power and pursuit hasn’t been seen on the defensive line since Jason Taylor, and Suh is stronger than Taylor ever was. He thrives off of both his actual ability and the fear that that ability creates in opponents. It’s that fear that sets the tone of every play in which he’s involved. He doesn’t go away when you change or tweak; you still need to run, because he’s only a step away from being on top of you. That, my friends, is what makes a monster.

What Dreams May Come 2010 - CJ Spiller

2010-03-18T16:55:00.004-04:00

I tried not to start 2010’s “What Dreams May Come” series with CJ Spiller. Really, I tried. It’s much sexier to write about the obscure player whose gifts, once brought into the NFL game, will come through more clearly than they ever did in college. Chris Johnson’s speed, Aaron Curry’s tackling, these are the sort of singular talents that can only be appreciated when seen in the context of the highest level of competition in the sport, giving impressive substance to what in college is just ethereal style. The problem is that, with CJ Spiller, this appreciation for otherworldly singularities might just be going mainstream. Curry’s selection at the fourth pick was something of a “total package” pick, one based in a stunning physicality rather than in what actually made Curry special on the field (not that they are entirely separate, but it goes to the distinction between potential and performance). Chris Johnson was, at the time of his draft, considered a huge reach by the Titans. CJ Spiller, on the other hand, is almost certainly going in the first round, and it isn’t because he has a prototypical build for his position or because some team will take a “crazy” chance on him; it is because he is the standard bearer for the league’s embracing flashes of brilliance as endpoints in and of themselves instead of just markers of a player’s journey to becoming “complete”. The way has been paved by his peers, and Spiller will be the first test case of whether this change in focus can have the results we’ve always believed it should.

If that sounds esoteric, it’s only because CJ Spiller represents something that this blog has particularly hoped for since its inception. By anybody’s objective standard, however, CJ Spiller is a phenomenal talent. Last season, taking the lion’s share of the work for the Clemson offense, Spiller gained 1212 yards on 216 carries (5.6 average) and 12 TD. He also caught 36 passes for 503 yards and 4 TD. He also handled kickoff and punt duties to the point where teams simple avoided giving him the opportunity to hurt them as often as they could. He showed an ability to take a game over on his own ability, with 7 games of over 100 yards of total offense. Furthermore, he could take games over in a variety of ways. Yes, he was graceful in his crushing of Florida State (165 yards and 1 TD rushing, 67 yards and 1 TD receiving), but perhaps his most impressive effort came in a loss (they always seem to around here…) to Georgia Tech, in which Spiller singlehandedly kept Clemson within a score of defeating a talent laden team thanks to his 233 yards and 4 TD on the ground. Spiller’s quickness translates into any offensive capacity, and time after time, he proved that he could use it to punish teams in whatever way they would allow him to do so.

Spiller’s drawback in any other year would be his size, standing just 5’11” and 195 pounds. Thankfully, this is where the shift in focus comes in. In part because of the incredible workouts given by stars in recent years and in part because of the incredible workouts given by busts in years past, teams seem to be focusing more on how a player’s gifts can be built around in an offense, instead of seeing them as signs that a player can be made “whole” and THEN use his incredible gifts within a rigid scheme. It’s the reason we now have running back platoons; the “complete” player is now seen as the unicorn it always was. It is in this league that Spiller can shine on an offense. Percy Harvin found success in his first year as a part of the Vikings offense, all because Brad Childress recognized that he had the opportunity to tailor his system to have a new aspect of versatility that it hadn’t had before and that opponents had not yet seen. Spiller has every gift that Harvin has and more. Spiller ran the 40 in 4.37 seconds, has a 36 inch vertical leap, changes direction as quickly as any back available, and has hands that make him a threat on passing downs. He won’t have to take every carry or block on every down because teams don’t expect players to do that anymore; they expect them to be sufficient enough with their weaknesses so that they don’t create huge problems when they are on the field, and simply use someone else when those weaknesses would come into most sharp relief. In short, the league has evolved into a place that tailors to an offensive player’s unique gifts so that they can be used most effectively, and there is no offensive player in this draft with gifts like CJ Spiller.

Watch Spiller’s highlights and tell me you don’t think that speed and quickness will translate into an NFL passing game, where he’ll be matched up against slower linebackers or safeties that are out of position for his ability to change direction. He could just as easily be a threat on the ground, taking surprise handoffs to go outside of the tackles or hit an apparent hole in the line to get to the second level, where his top gear gives any play the potential for disaster. With defenses still figuring out ways to account for a wave of NFL offenses relying on two backs, and therefore on fresher, quicker legs, Spiller could be the ultimate tool in exploiting the fatigue levels that come from defenders reacting to backs moving consistently more quickly than they’ve moved in years past. Spiller would then be the result of the positional shift that we’ve seen in how teams balance systems and individuals. Years after the Reggie Bush “failure”, teams have learned to build around what they have instead of expecting “incomplete” players to succeed in ways they never could at the expense of their natural abilities. The fear of the singular talent is, it would seem, finally dead. Good thing, too, because a league in which a firework like Spiller gets to have his game focus on the explosions rather than making them a quirky sideshow, and it is the reason why CJ Spiller is rightfully the most important offensive player in the 2010 draft.

Offseason Curl Routes #1.5 (Bengals!)

2010-03-11T19:38:00.003-05:00

It struck me that I forgot to mention just how excited I am to watch the Bengals play football next season (if you're not following me on Twitter, and why would you, you missed my 140 character freakout about this). I have loved the way this team has decided to view last year's ground game renaissance as a strengthening of the offensive foundation rather than a total shift in philosophy. Certainly, Benson and Scott (who sound like an early 90's cop duo) give this offense the much needed hard-nosed credibility they've historically lacked, but to focus on them would be to give up too quickly on the ethereal dream that Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco have worked all these years to make real.

So to say that I'm pleased with the signing of Antonio Bryant (and MATT JONES because WE DO NOT FORGET MATT JONES) would be an understatement. The move represented not only an acquisition of weaponry, but also admirable discernment in choosing the less heralded, less easy-on-the-eyes game of Bryant over the celebrity of T.O.. Owens will land someplace (I hope), but Bryant represents the final piece of the matchup nightmare jigsaw killer trap that the Bengals have quietly been constructing. Defenses that choose to focus on Ochocinco now will find themselves spread awfully thin against Antonio Bryant (who can go down the field and force safety attention), Matt Jones (who has the tools to do the same, except with more speed and size), and the underrated Andre Caldwell (the sneakiest slot man in the game last season). Throw in Jerome Simpson (whose vert is going to get respect sooner or later), and the supporting cast should finally give Ochocinco the room to do what he does best: Humiliate defenders with the ability to run complex routes with a quickness and precision that might not be matched in the league. The 2007 Pats proved that frustration is as effective an offensive weapon as any one player, and this team has the versatility to keep defenses on their heels.

If you think this sounds like a fantasy, just remember that the Chargers have had one of the most potent offenses in the league on the strength of mismatches at WR alone, and they never had the ground game the Bengals did last year working in tandem with those mismatches, nor did they have the combination of size AND speed that the Bengals will have in Cincy. If Marvin Lewis's culture of hard lessons leading to redemptive growth (which has done wonders for Cedric Benson and Tank Johnson) can be translated to something as graceful as the passing offense Carson Palmer was born to run, last season's success will go from a fever dream to a frightening prelude. In the sequel, the monsters can fly.

Offseason Curl Routes #1

2010-03-11T17:12:00.002-05:00

Because not every single offseason move has been one that either you or I find interesting enough to devote the usual attention to…

- SENECA WALLACE, FREE! Yes, I understand it’s a pipe dream, but I’m glad to see he’ll actually get a shot with team that isn’t racked with injuries (like he sort of did last year in Seattle…when he outplayed Hasselbeck…). It’s a very smart stopgap move at QB for a team facing bigger needs at WR and a weak QB draft class, and could have some very high upside.

- Next up on the freedom trail, FREE TROY SMITH! Seriously, a 5th rounder is all it will take. A FIFTH ROUND PICK! Bills? Raiders? Panthers? NONE OF YOU THINK THIS MIGHT BE WORTH LOOKING INTO? I understand Wallace getting taken first, simply because he has starting experience in a West Coast Offense. Still, Smith might have even more upside at even less cost, thanks to his similar athleticism, his bigger arm, and his willingness to operate from a pocket this early in his career. The fact that teams are buying spectacle with their dollars and not developing growth is why I hate the way spectacle runs this league's roster moves.

- Look, nobody is saying that Julius Peppers hasn’t underachieved, or that it’s a great idea to pay him over $40 million in guaranteed money. Still, facts are facts, and these are the facts: In eight seasons, Peppers has had only two where he had fewer than 10 sacks, one of which was an injury bugged 2007 season. Four of those seasons saw Peppers put up 11 or more sacks, and he is only one year removed from a career high 14.5 sacks in a single season. In 2009, an “off” year, when teams had no reason to throw that much, Peppers still managed 10.5 sacks, good for 10th most in the league, and 8th most from a defensive end. Furthermore, you have to overpay at least a little (and yes, this is more than a little) to get him. Bringing him on to a defensive unit that already has a centerpiece and leader (Urlacher returns this season unquestionably makes your defense better. Personally, I’m excited that two prodigies at their defensive positions have united for the long road back to elite recognition, under a couple of defensive coaches who could use some redemption of their own.

- I’m definitely a little biased, but how are the Jets not the clear winners of the offseason right now? Antonio Cromartie is a 25 year old Pro Bowl caliber corner with excellent hands to match his physical gifts, and he’s our SECOND cornerback? No, I’m not concerned about his extracurricular activities. Not at all. We’re standing at the door of a defense built as much on fear as it is on actual talent (who wants to throw, even in a passing league, on this defense?).

- I’m OK with Kerry Rhodes being gone. I can’t say I’m not sad, but he hit a rough patch that he was either unwilling (what I think happened) or unable (what he should hope didn’t happen) to overcome. Ryan’s schemes require a strong safety to do more than play centerfield and make a fun delay blitz every once in a while. Rhodes, on the other hand, is built to play back and use his considerable athleticism in reaction. He could easily wind up being worth more than a 4th and 7th rounder to the Cardinals, but he wouldn’t have been worth that for the Jets. A rare win-win.

- I have no such complex feelings about the Antrel Rolle signing. The Giants just made an above average safety who wasn’t even the best on his own team the richest safety in the league. Feeling like you need to crush the market is what leads to stupidly high contracts like this…

- Finally, I’ve written how much I respect Andy Reid for sticking to his guns and claiming McNabb as his guy. It’s the sort of loyalty backed by logical understanding that is incredibly rare in the league. That said, if the Eagles go into next season without having gained a single asset for either McNabb or Kolb (there is no Vick market, despite what the team believes), this offseason has been a monumental failure. Nobody is paying two first round picks for Kevin Kolb, and nobody is paying as high a pick as the Eagles apparently want for McNabb (a 1st rounder is the rumor). so figure out that the only thing worse than not getting what you want is getting nothing at all and make a move, Eagles. Personally, I think trading Kolb (FREE KEVIN KOLB) is the obvious choice. I’m not sure why McNabb being 33 somehow guarantees that he’s in the twilight of his career, but he certainly has enough left for the team to develop another replacement. If the front office is going to give Reid his year with his disciple, they should give him a year fully devoted to success with that system, rather than keeping Kolb around for some future that neither Reid or McNabb are clearly contemplating yet.

Offseason Moves – Nate Burleson Activates Megatron

2010-03-10T14:19:00.007-05:00

Wide receivers are pack animals, despite what you may have heard. Certainly, there are alpha dogs in any pack, but by their nature they are as dependent on the pack as the pack is on them. There’s a reason the “lone wolf” is a cute idea for thirtysomethings and a cautionary tale in nature. For all of the talk about it being a glamour position, smart pass attacks rely on the interplay between bodies in motion, regardless of mass or velocity, and not merely any one part of the larger equation. It’s a beautiful illustration of Hume’s physics; units do not initiate of their own reason, but rather have each of their actions connected to other actors. This is not to say that the tired adage of “a chain is only as strong as its weakest link” is infallibly true; great football talents define their greatness by making up for the weakness of others around them. However, it does indicate that there must be a reasonably designed “chain” before any real accomplishment can result from one link’s strength.

The Detroit Lions offense has, for the last year and a half, essentially been Calvin Johnson as a steel ring linked to ropes of sand. Last year saw Megatron put up 67 receptions for 984 yards (14.7 avg) in just 14 games, and yet it all felt very pedestrian, particularly with only 5 receptions going for touchdowns. By contrast, Johnson’s rookie campaign had 4 touchdowns on 756 yards and 48 receptions (15.8 avg), and his 2008 statistics were otherworldly considering that he had absolutely no support once Roy Williams left. Indeed, since Williams’s absence, Calvin Johnson has seemed like more of a monument to what Calvin Johnson could be than anything else, either pouring transcendent performances into mundane team losses at best or straining to break free at worst. Much of this can be traced to the fact that Johnson has no support. Brandon Pettigrew started to emerge prior to his season ending injury, but adding a dynamic receiving tight end didn’t so much end Johnson’s existence on an offensive island as much as push that island further down the field, opening short range work but leaving Johnson’s unparalleled deep threat gifts with no outlet.

Enter Nate Burleson. If Johnson is the heralded coming of the new great receiver, visibly dominating matchup nightmares, Burleson is a passing league’s best kept secret. Quiet as kept, Burleson put up 812 yards on 63 receptions (12.9 avg) while the Seahawks didn’t realize he was their best target for half the season, with a broken down Matt Hasselbeck trying to force the ball to beta-in-alpha’s-clothing TJ Houshmandzadeh and no run game for most of the year. Unlike every playmate Johnson has had since Williams, Burleson also brings another important plus to the Lions pass attack; he plays the same deep game that Johnson does, he just plays it differently. In place of Johnson’s visible dominance, Burleson has a sort of sixth sense for the ball, finding it at the last second and preventing defenders from turning away from him to intercept, then taking angles after the catch that unfold as though he’d had weeks rather than seconds to plan them. Combined with the speed to make these gifts work downfield, Burleson’s old school savvy should find itself paired with Johnson’s new school mutation in the long range aerial attack.

All of this is to say that we may finally get to see the return Megatron as mythic titan instead of beast of burden. Burleson is the deep target who can and will punish teams for devoting too much safety help on defense to Johnson. With Pettigrew working similarly beneath the field, we may finally get to see Megatron exist without the unnatural constraints that defenses have been able to put on him thanks to his solitude in the Lions offense. This makes Burleson’s immersion into the Detroit offense as a legitimate downfield weapon critical for the team’s success and for Johnson’s rightful claim to dominance in the NFL. As an also ran, Burleson gives Johnson little more than Bryant Johnson or Shaun McDonald (Stallworth in New England sticks out as well); as a core part of the offense, his success will only increase that of Megatron (think Housh and Ochocinco in Cincy). In place of the circus sideshow (we hate the spectacle around here), Detroit finally has found the planets necessary to create a universe, which is all Johnson, it’s sun, has needed to shine.

Monuments Aren't for the Present

2010-03-02T13:55:00.010-05:00

After Will Ferrell and Tracy Morgan had left, the 2004 SNL season rolled around and the biggest draw left in the cast was Jimmy Fallon. Most longtime SNL fans never really warmed up to Fallon during his stint on the show, and this was their worst nightmare. They just knew that this goofy kid that never seemed comfortable and giggled his way through any good material was going to ruin everything…and then he didn’t. The show leaned on him for everything he could do, and he pulled out all the Nick Burns and Barry Gibb Talk Show and Gap Clerk that he could, and to everyone’s surprise he managed to carry the show on his back for a season. It wasn’t amazing, but it wasn’t bad either, and it was what the show needed when it needed it. Anyone who was a fan of SNL at the time has to admit that as much as Jimmy Fallon may have never really suited their taste, he did a respectable job with the show during the time he was trusted with it. All of that is to say the following: Thomas Jones deserved more credit than I gave him as a Jet.

That isn’t to say that Jones wasn’t infuriating at times, particularly when he was piling up statistics and the team was winning. I’ve never seen a back with a worse grasp of his gifts. Jones, a natural power back with a nose for quickly finding his way through holes and punishing middle defenders, had an inexplicable penchant for dancing in the backfield. This tactic let to useless lateral moves that could generously be described as gradual, and frequently turned an otherwise consistent offensive tool into a novelty act. He had an equally frustrating tendency to disappear during the Brett Favre year, when he was racking up yardage anytime except for when it was most needed. Worse still for Jones was his joining the team the year after the 2006 playoff run, when offensive creativity in spite of the lack of a back of his caliber paved the way to the postseason. By contrast, Jones’s first year, with its over reliance on the back and lack of real offensive line strength, felt like an ugly retread of Herm Edwards at his worst, taking a system and forcing it into inert tradition simply because it seemed like the safe thing to do, making the team the Jay Leno of offenses (yes, I’ve been watching too much late night television). It was that year, in fact, that laid the foundation for my troubled relationship to the man who had been thrust into the center of our offense.

Yet while Jones did have his flaws, maybe I was too busy looking for what he wasn’t to see what he was. He didn’t ask to be the focus of the offense in 2007; Mangini just threw him there because he wasn’t clever enough to think of anything else. His disappearances in 2008 could just have easily been attributed to a coaching staff desperate for populist appeal, going to their celebrity quarterback instead of a running back that had proven he could get the job done (his 4.5 yards per carry led him to an AFC rushing title, yet the team went 9-7). He never asked to take touches away from Leon Washington (always the more exciting player) or Shonn Greene (basically a younger version of himself), but the team felt compelled to make him into the centerpiece they were paying him to be. To his credit, Jones did exactly what was asked of him. In the abysmal 2007 campaign, Jones still managed 1119 yards, good for 10th in the league. In 2008, on 20 fewer touches, he put up an even more impressive year. Is it fair to blame him for never being anything more than exactly what the team asked him to be when the team essentially asked him to be their rock on offense? Looking back, I felt like I was the only one who saw how Jones’s steady, unchanging nature was holding the team back; now I see less prophet and more drunken little league dad in those declarations, which missed what Jones was accomplishing every week.

This past year, with a rookie quarterback, no clear number one receiver for half of the year, and a brand new defensive scheme in place, Jones was once again asked to be the lead dog on our offense. I’m sure he knew that a lot of fans would hate him for it, with his boring, up the gut runs and his making bizarre footwork decisions in the backfield from time to time taking away from Mark Sanchez’s development as a passer or Shonn Greene’s development as a back or further removing Leon Washington as a dynamic offensive threat (something a broken leg would later accomplish). Yet Jones quietly carried the load with the same tempered rhythm that defined his tenure with the Jets, and he put up a career year in yardage. I hadn’t realized that until the season was over, that Jones had, in a year where the team was preparing to phase him out as their offensive leader, compiled his most impressive individual achievements in yardage (and his 4.2 yards per carry on a career high 331 carries is also a ridiculously impressive number at his age). That was the way it went with my perspective on Thomas Jones; somehow, it felt like he should be doing something different. Only in retrospect do I really appreciate what he did, as opposed to what he didn’t do. And so as he leaves the team, I can look back on his career and say that while I honestly never warmed up to his role on the Jets, that had more to do with me than with him, and I can say that when he was trusted with my team, he did what he was asked to do. We should all be so well remembered.

What Remains – The Wild Card Round Losers

2010-02-26T18:37:00.003-05:00

We pick up where we left off on our discussion of the 31 teams who did NOT win the Lombardi Trophy with a look at the Wild Card round losers, who are more interesting than the ones who just missed the show anyway...

Cincinnati Bengals

Lost in their overcoming loss and limping to the finish of the season as a result is the fact that the Bengals were not, as some might have you believe, lucky to be in the postseason. They owned the AFC North, sweeping their way through the competition. So it is with an eye to a future based on the present that I say that this team is not a one hit wonder. This is because this team, long built on the sort of quick fix solutions promised by high profile passing offenses and flashy play in the defensive backfield, finally stumbled onto the ingredients of a consistent foundation. In luckily discovering the real Cedric Benson, the Bengals put together the 9th best rushing offense in the league, despite sub par years from Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco, not to mention losing the team’s only vertical threat, Chris Henry. In successfully developing Keith Rivers (finally getting some help from Dhani Jones) and Antwan Odom (8 sacks in six games) and bringing Tank Johnson into the fold, the team finally has the stable middle to take advantage of their wildly talented backfield defenders (Hall and Joseph’s 12 INTs prove they were just as good as the Bengals thought they were), leading to the 4th best defense in the league. Considering that there might not have been a more unlucky team than the Bengals this season, is there any reason to believe that the trend won’t continue upward next season? Hell, with this base, the team actually can start to give Carson Palmer the sort of vertical attack that the team still believes he’s capable of, bringing in Matt Jones as a third receiving option and making me lose my mind in anticipation as a result. In short, the Bengals made that most difficult of transitions, taking a necessary step back aerially to avoid remaining a spectacle and exchange a foundation of sand for one of stone. If the next season represents the natural progression of regaining that lost aerial step, the AFC North might be the least of the domains in which the Bengals gain dominance.

New England Patriots

Man, that Bill Belichick sure did fall off, right? Like when he instructed his defense to give up 35 points to Peyton Manning, and didn’t even trust them to win the game for him after following that plan to perfection. Oh, and the time that he drew up a play for Wes Welker to tear his ACL and MCL just one week before the playoffs, leaving him no time to work up a sufficient replacement. What was he thinking? Tom Brady is probably finished, too. Seriously, after last season, how many quarterbacks would you rather have running that system? Sure, statistically there are only eitght quarterbacks with better ratings, two of whom threw more picks, two of whom threw fewer touchdowns, six of whom attempted fewer passes, four of whom have ever even made it to one Super Bowl, and one of whom is Matt Schaub, but come on, anybody could have had Brady’s year this season, right? Did I mention that the New England system is a remarkably complex system that requires proficiency throwing both deep and short passes? Whatever, these guys are totally finished as a threat to the championship.

The point is that this is a 10-6 playoff team and division winner that, prior to losing their most reliable receiver and the lynchpin to their offense (we really need new metaphorical language for Welker’s role in that offense…), lost one game by more than one score to the eventual Super Bowl champions (for the record they lost three of those games by 3 points or less). The wind blows in the right direction on a couple of plays, and these guys get a bye week in the playoffs with a healthy Wes Welker. I’m thrilled that it didn’t work out that way, but I haven’t exactly bought a headstone for the Belichick-Brady era either. With minor tweaks to the defense, and a full year of healthier offense (including Moss in a contract year), these guys are going to be scary, particularly if they can get a running back platoon that forces defenders to stay at home in the middle of the field. Laurence Maroney is underrated, but he’s not good enough to be a feature back, and he’s certainly not giving the team enough to make up for the lack of burst from every other back on the roster. We forgot, because they made the playoffs, that this was a reloading year for the Patriots. Maybe that's why we hate them most of all.

Philadelphia Eagles

I caught myself writing about what a man of faith Andy Reid must be to remain so committed to Donovan McNabb. Shame on me. This isn’t a matter of faith, or reliance on the kind of universal truths that coaches so often lean on when making personnel decisions. Andy Reid is an empiricist, perhaps more than any other coach in the league, living off of experience and not off of notions of what should be or what could be. “Is” and “was” always win in those fights. In his career as a starter, McNabb has never finished below the top half of quarterbacks in terms of ratings, despite having had an elite wide receiver either once or twice, depending on whether or not you believe DeSean Jackson made the leap last season (68 receptions for 1167 yards and 9 TD). And yet for all of that, Reid and McNabb have exactly one NFC Championship to show for their statistical consistency.

Conventional wisdom, then, starts to point toward the sort of “reasoned truths” that come from statistics failing to line up with reality, in this case that McNabb (or both Reid and McNabb) aren’t “winners”. How stupid can we possibly get? Are Eagles fans so blind as to not realize that they root for a team that has missed the playoffs just twice in the last decade? Whatever doubts you may have concerning the “truths” that govern McNabb’s future, don’t the numbers make the case that he’s the best chance that team has of winning a title? Right or wrong, Reid’s decision to stay with McNabb isn’t some crazed vision of a prophet; it’s the sort of cold calculation for which we praise forward thinkers in both this and every other professional sports league. It’s a match problem, not a magic show, and until the formula starts spitting out different numbers, the Eagles aren’t spitting out different names.

Green Bay Packers

These guys are going to crush the NFC next year. Their quarterback is the fourth best in the league, and tied for the league lead in sacks, which, though somewhat his fault, tells me that he’s not just on the verge of greatness anymore; he’s arrived (the 8.20 yds/attempt is CRAZY considering he threw 541 passes). Ryan Grant, after looking lost for so long, pulled it together for a respectable 1253 yards (and 4.4 yards per carry), giving Rodgers the support his offensive line won’t. The receiving corps might be the quickest in the league, creating an aerial assault that reads like a Street Fighter command (keep tapping pass to activate the HUNDRED HAND SLAP!). Meanwhile, did you guys realize that this was the second best defense in the league? Because I forgot somewhere along the road to a gut punch of a 51-45 loss to Arizona that this was the second best defense in the league (and FIRST against the rush!!!).

Give me one good reason why this isn’t the prohibitive favorite for the NFC next season? Did you forget that Aaron Rodgers is a veteran at this point? That Ryan Grant is a versatile back that can attack in multiple ways? That they have a hyper-talented group of linebackers, none of whom is over the age of 28? A tweak here and there on the offensive line, and this isn’t just a good offense; it has the chance to be as good (and younger) than the same Saints unit that just won the Lombardi Trophy. One of these days, Aaron Rodgers is going to beat someone over the age of 35, instead of giving them career defining games (the two Favre losses, the loss to Warner in the playoffs), and we'll finally recognize just how good this team is.

Offseason Moves You Missed - The Return of Matt Jones

2010-02-23T13:16:00.008-05:00

Matt Jones has a problem to which anyone who has failed young can relate; people think he’s older than he is. For the record, Jones is 26. He’s not sick. He hasn’t bounced from team to team. He’s played four seasons, and has missed one year due to disciplinary issues. His last season was his best as a pro, and in just 12 games Jones had career highs in receptions (65) and yards (761), putting up a pace that, over a 16 game season, would have given him over 1000 yards. He stands 6’6”, weighs in at 218 pounds, and was last measured running the 40-yard dash, the standard for receiver speed, a test usually dominated by mighty mice at WR, in a stunning 4.37 seconds. He is an inch taller, and 2/100ths of a second slower than Calvin Johnson, easily one of the top three receivers in the league.

He’s also temperamental to his own detriment, has horrible judgment when it comes to illegal substances, and has always had trouble matching his gifts to the circumstances in which he has found himself. He is, even in the most optimistic light, a head case.

But again, he’s 26. There are just two receivers in the top ten that are more than a year younger than Jones (Steve Smith and Sidney Rice are the trivia answers). Fine, he’s had problems realizing his incredible potential (though I would argue he was on his way there in 2008), but isn’t it worth it for a team, if not the league as a product, to see if this kind of undeniable, unique talent can fully express itself on the field? And if he’s too old to bring it all together with a second chance, finally getting his potential to function in his reality, then what the hell are the rest of us doing? That first dream job out of college that turned out to be a bust? The first creation you really cared about that was resoundingly panned? That first big relationship that ended in a gut wrenching train wreck? You can disapprove of the mess Jones’s bad judgment and worse attitude have made of his opportunities to this point; I do, too. But I’m pulling for Matt Jones, because there’s a part of me that gets Matt Jones, that wishes him the same second and third chances that I’ve gotten and will likely need again. I have to believe that if everybody is honest, we all kind of get Matt Jones.

All of that is to say that I am absolutely thrilled that Matt Jones is going into training camp as a Cincinnati Bengal. I’ve made no secret of my soft spot for Matt Jones, and this year’s Bengals team was as good a story as you’ll find in the league. Marvin Lewis and Mike Brown, who were raked over the coals for years (and deservedly so) for placing too much responsibility on youth and personally flawed veterans, finally saw their youth mature and rein in their more troublesome veterans. The result was a team that, prior to the tragic death of physically talented and personally troubled receiver Chris Henry, had the talent to go toe-to-toe with any of its peers and the sort of chip on its shoulder that made it a scary competitor. The highlight of all of this was RB Cedric Benson, who had been unceremoniously dumped from Chicago and was all but blackballed from football before a desperate Bengals squad brought him in to kick his tires. Last year, Benson finished with the 8th most rushing yardage in the league, and was the centerpiece of a Bengals offense that was once entirely based on streaky passer Carson Palmer.

In Benson, we see an example of what the Bengals, and I, hope can become of Matt Jones. Jones represents the sort of big, athletic target that the Bengals need from their second or third option, creating a matchup nightmare when he’s performing at full speed (as he was in his last NFL season). Furthermore, with no other teams remotely interested, he has arrived at his last opportunity for redemption. For a receiver with his physical gifts, this could mean everything (examples: Moss in New England, Edwards in New York…). Meanwhile, he also finds himself paired with a quarterback that Jacksonville can only dream about, with an offense that isn’t afraid to open up vertically and a coaching staff that isn’t too lazy to develop offensive talent (the verdict was in on Del Rio two years ago…). If Cincinnati can do what they did with Cedric Benson (and on another note, they deserve all the credit in the world for how they were helping Chris Henry progress before his death), there’s no reason that Matt Jones, arguably the most talented project player they’ve taken in so far, can’t also have his second, more important act take place in orange and black.

PS: And by the way, yes, I've read the report. Take into account the following: coaches ALWAYS bristle when the front office forces players into their roster, regardless of whether it's a good move or not, and they NEVER like seeing a physically gifted player who will likely replace a personal project coming into camp. "I don't care how fast his 40 time is" reminds me of an ostrich with his head in the sand. Consider me unfazed.

It's More Fun When It's Personal

2010-02-08T20:32:00.013-05:00

(photo: NY Times)

I’m still trying to figure out what last night did to the legacy of ONE OF THE GREATEST QUARTERBACKS TO PLAY THE GAME, but I’m less confused as to what it meant for one of the most incredible teams to take the field. As such, I’ll start with the positive, and we’ll sift through the issues of individual defeats versus careers and legacies versus achievements and the role of blame in all of this tomorrow.

The measure of a great team isn’t its ability to play to its strengths, but its ability to play to its opponent’s weakness. There wasn’t any doubt going into Sunday night that the Colts had the most talented players in the Super Bowl, and there wasn’t any doubt watching the game for the first half. Peyton Manning threw an excellent first half (like I said, we’ll get to this later…), Wayne and Clark were giving their individual matchups fits, and Dwight Freeney even had an important sack on his injured ankle.

Then, the kick. Sorry, The Kick. If we had The Catch in 2007, we have to give this one credit for being just as unexpected and wildly successful, and certainly better executed. The Kick was everything that made the Saints win. It was unexpected, and yet perfectly situated to the game they were playing (read Peter King’s Monday Morning QB to understand how the Colts’ special teams habits played a role in the decision). It took an entire team operating on the same page, and forced the Colts to rely on their weakest link (enjoy the UFL, Hank Baskett). Perhaps most importantly, by the time the Colts realized what was happening, it was already too late to control the damage, as the ensuing panicked scrum revealed.

For the entire second half, the Colts looked lost. Manning saw blitzes when he expected coverage, and looked boggled whenever the Saints sat back and let their speedy backfield (aided by world-class athlete at MLB Jon Vilma) take away his easy checkdowns. Where the first half had been a game of simply slowing down the attack, the second half saw the Saints shifting seamlessly between three defensive game plans (standard four man front, all out attack, and everybody dropping into zones), preventing Manning from ever getting his offense into a set rhythm. What we all saw as choking was simply a quarterback with a need for process and repetition being denied both, and the culmination of the confusion was Tracy Porter bursting through the Colts offense with the football, waving it in the air and dashing into the end zone to put the final nail in the coffin for the Colts. Certainly, the Saints had the talent to attack with the sort of all out blitz schemes Gregg Williams loves, but instead they let the Colts come to them, waiting prepared with the weapon that the Saints weren’t most comfortable with, but the one that, if they could make it work, would be most deadly.

The same can be said of the offense. Eight different receivers had catches, and seven of them had multiple receptions. The Colts, expecting an aerial assault, instead found themselves fighting a protracted land war against an offense that made short passes look as routine as handoffs. Devery Henderson, in particular, killed the Colts on in the short rage, averaging 9 yards per catch, but more often making the sort of 4-6 yard grabs that number two receivers eventually drop. When the Colts did shift the defense down to Henderson, Colston crushed them over the top (seven catches for an 11.9 yard average). When they dropped back, Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas brutalized them on flats and circles (93 receiving yards, 10 catches, and a TD between them…Thomas was always safe, but Bush may have earned a contract to stick around with that and his 25 yards on 5 rushes). And when everything seemed most bottled up, when the options were finally processed into the Tampa 2 matrix, it was Jeremy Shockey (what were those picks you got again, Giants?) with the 2 yard dagger. Watch that route (another beautiful first move by Shockey, I might add) and the Colts defense just looks bewildered, unable to match up because they simply don't recognize the attack (odd, for a team that uses Dallas Clark so similarly). Shockey lining up at WR might as well have been The Kick all over again; in every aspect of the game (their kicker drilled three 44+ yarders like they were chip shots), the Saints executed a second half game plan designed to hit the Colts in every place that their methodical, bend don’t break, process the game style of play would suffer the most damage.

All of this, of course, would have been impossible without Drew Brees Brees was the reason the Saints could attack the Colts the way they did. At the root of their southpaw game plan was the need for Brees to be surgical, quick, and near perfect with his passing. He was all three (32/39, 288 yards for a perfectly suited 7.4 YPA and 2 TDs). His trademark speediest reaction time under center let him pick the appropriate target in the blink of an eye, and was the biggest reason why the Colts had that deer in the headlights look on the field. Watching him cry and kiss his son after the game, I wondered if Drew Brees had been angrier than we all thought. I’ve made no secret of how I didn’t care for Brees’s team chants reminiscent of a frat party, or the smug talk of destiny (seriously, the Sean Payton-Drew Brees marriage has to have rocketed up the list of perfect Coach-QB matches, right?). Then again, watching Brees finally relax, I remembered that we’re talking about a guy who was told to go away by his team in the prime of his early career, having amassed Pro Bowl caliber stats, and was only offered a sure starter’s gig by a rookie head coach taking over a loser New Orleans Sains team that had one foot in San Antonio. That sort of disrespect has to go somewhere, right? Manning, Brady, and the rest of the elite quarterbacks in the league never had to deal with that, so maybe I was too quick to view Brees’s outward intensity as unbecoming of his status; maybe he just had a bigger fire to let burn. So while watching Manning rid himself of the burden of chasing a legacy would have been nice, Brees’s victory should be no less satisfying to anyone who has watched him play. Because behind all of the talk about lifting a city and carrying a team of destiny, this meant something to Drew Brees. I wonder if his son will look back and realize that this was the moment when all the team chants and rituals, the indignation that had been bottled and channeled into various team-oriented outlets, and Drew Brees’s sense that he was meant, even destined to be great, all paid off. For all of the doubts we expected to see Manning kill, maybe the ones Brees finally overcame were the truly pressing ones, gnawing not at history but at the man himself, and maybe his freedom is the most satisfying ending after all.

The Super Divide

2010-02-02T14:51:00.003-05:00

Over at the Norman Einstein's (where Cian, formerly of Fuhbaw, runs the corner), I had the opportunity to put together a Super Bowl preview dealing with the Colts, the Saints, and the future of the league hanging in the balance (it tends to do that around these parts...). Check it out.

Painting By the Numbers

2010-01-26T00:44:00.003-05:00

“Somebody said that Mark Sanchez is basically JaMarcus Russell." My friend was not pleased with the idea, and a month ago, that would have stuck with me, too. I’d have argued against it, looked at the numbers, probably wrestled with the doubts about this rookie who had been trusted with my team’s future, and settled into a comfortable state of refusal to even consider the possibility for the sake of my sanity. Now, I read the article and smile, because I know, like I know what color the sky will be tomorrow, that the comparison is ridiculous. That’s what happens when you grow with a group of people, and I grew with this Jets team. I watched Shonn Greene become the new “IT” running back, a title that he deserves for his mix of explosive speed and power, making him a battering ram of a human being. I watched Jericho Cotchery go from a reliable safety valve to the best hands in the AFC. I watched Dustin Keller finally get right on the edge of being the next great pass catching tight end (which I look forward to him finally achieving next season). I watched Braylon Edwards…well, not everyone is built for personal or professional growth at the same time.

Spend all season with a team, and you’ll come to appreciate the feel of the organization. Spend all season with a team that forces you to invest some real emotion in them, because you actually believe they could be something special, and you come to appreciate the individuals that make up that organization. It’s something like the difference between how you and a physicist understand gravity. This is true with these Jets for nobody more than Mark Sanchez. Believe me, I was there for the 20 interceptions. I watched them all. But I was also there as he started to make smarter throws. I watched him respond to a media that loves nothing more than shattering the idols it creates (a la the article in question) by smiling, continuing to tweak his throws, and become more comfortable. Then, this past Sunday, I watched him do everything he could to win a game in which his defense was completely shook (not the first time this has happened when he’s played up to his lofty expectations, mind you) and his run game was hobbled (Greene getting hurt had a much bigger impact than anybody seems willing to admit). As with other games (the Dolphin losses stand out), Sanchez’s best wasn’t going to be enough, and yet it felt different. Those losses ended with question marks. This one, coming at the end of the season of doubt and turmoil, left no room for any answers other than the ones given on the field. Mark Sanchez is capable of leading a team. He is able to make use of all of the tools in his arsenal (and could we please acknowledge that this team still, years later, doesn’t have a slot receiver?). In short, he’s come a long way from the rookie who was learning the ropes the same way every quarterback learns the ropes in their first year, and the same confidence that had been a liability is now the thing that will make him deadly as he matures and becomes more comfortable with his receiving options.

Yes, the numbers improved a little, but looking at the numbers and nothing else is for people who could just as easily watch a Madden simulation. Without the feel for what actually happens over the course of a possession, a game, or a season, the numbers signify nothing. What we lose in objectivity as fans, we gain in a more real understanding of how a team finds itself or a player grows into the stats he produces. This doesn’t mean I don’t watch the numbers, or that I don’t think they’re important. Quantitatively, I could easily dispute the Sanchez/Russell comparison, considering that Russell was already in his second year when he started his 15 game season, he had a team full of speedy wideouts (say what you will, but the Jets started the season with David Clowney as their only speed option), and for all the talk of the evenness in interceptions, Sanchez threw 12 over the span of three games (including a 5 pick special) while Russell spread his out over the course of the year. The former indicates a player who has awful single games (which, last I checked, is OK for rookies); the latter indicates a player who fails to progress (which is a much worse sign for rookies). Oh, and did I mention that Sanchez had only two INTs in his last 5 games (including one broken route by the aforementioned Clowney and compared to 4 TDs)? Throw in Brian Schottenheimer’s unwillingness to craft a basic pass attack (outside of play action passes) to balance out the rush game (as opposed to the overly cute trickery that hinders the vertical attack as much as it protects Sanchez), and there are PLENTY of quantitative points to debate here.

And yet all of that isn’t the point. The point is that none of those things are the first things that come to mind when the Russell/Sanchez comparison is made. In fact, Mark Sanchez doesn’t come to mind at all when I read this article. Because for all the panic that the writer attempts to thrust on to his career, and for all the panic that the media has tried to attach to his journey through this season, the fact is that the picture they paint with the numbers doesn’t fit with the reality I saw play itself out, particularly in this last game. And if that doesn’t make sense to you, then maybe you understand how I feel when I look at an article comparing the quarterback I saw progress and grow into my team’s leader to a quarterback I saw regress into the shadows of obsolescence. The quarterback they construct with the numbers they’ve chosen sounds like a shaky, unreliable person; lucky for me, that’s not the Mark Sanchez I know.

2010 AFC Championship Preview

2010-01-23T17:02:00.009-05:00

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts, Sun 3:00 PM

We talked about this earlier, but Peyton Manning is PISSED this season. He’s pissed that he’s consistently put up the greatest statistical performances of an quarterback from any era, yet we still compare him to riff raff like Brett Favre. He’s pissed because he knows, just like everybody else knows, that this team had as good a shot as any at running the table to go 19-0, and instead gave up history for victory. He’s pissed because despite having a team that has never lost with its starters playing, and having beaten more varied opponents in more varied types of games than any other team this season, we all thought the Ravens had a shot last week, and people are talking about a Jets team that’s lucky to even be here as if they were a legitimate challenge and not a cute sideshow. So this Sunday, I expect that the Colts, taking a cue from Manning, along with his capos Freeney, Wayne, and Clark, will show up Sunday with the attitude of a team that has something to prove, regardless of their status as favorites for both this game and the Super Bowl. Truth be told, we haven’t seen this talented a team this angry since the 2007 Pats, and that team wasn’t anywhere near as likable as these Colts. After making short work of the Ravens, another brutal ground game with a focus on defensive football, there’s not a doubt in my mind that the Colts’ mission for this week is to send yet another message to the doubters, taking another dark horse contender and leaving their heads on spears for four quarters.

But believe me when I tell you the following: There isn’t a team in the AFC playoffs that the Colts wanted to see less than the New York Jets. The Bengals were too worn down to compete, the Pats had already lost Welker and were playing too injured to pose a threat, the Ravens don’t have a receiver quick enough to confuse zones, and the Chargers were too baby soft to win a shootout with the single deadliest vertical passer in the league. Any of those guys walk into Indy, we’re seeing strong faces masking shaking knees, and rightfully so, because this Colts team is the horror movie villain that won’t die. The Jets, on the other hand, aren’t just playing with house money; they’re making it rain on the dealers. Consider this: The Jets have executed to perfection for three games in a row now. For all the talk of them being one dimensional, isn’t someone going to have to prove they can stop Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene before we can call that a liability? Meanwhile, two straight quarterbacks have decided that they’re not scared of Darelle Revis, and both have paid dearly for it. The man is making passing offenses work with a hand tied behind their back, and Rex Ryan’s athletic blitz attack has prevented quarterbacks from thinking fast enough to make up for the difference (Bart Scott, in particular, deserves credit for confusing QBs as to whether he'll drop back, which he's athletic enough to do, or attack, which he loves to do). The whole thing has been loud, chaotic, yet surprisingly tight in its execution. Basically, it’s been the best party around for three straight weekends.

Still, it’s hard not to feel like the party might be over. Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer will go down as good quarterbacks; Peyton Manning, on the other hand, may get his very own Sphinx statue in Canton when it’s all said and done. I have trouble believing that this blitz attack supported by suffocating man coverage is going to faze Manning for any extended period of time. If he executes, the Colts will execute their game plan, and eventually, they’ll be able to answer the kind of slow, grinding touchdowns that the Jets have proven capable of creating with their run game. If the Colts have run into the first opponent that won’t be scared of them, the Jets have run into the first opponent with no reason to be scared of them. Manning is going to move the ball, regardless of how much time he has, and in a 17-14 squeaker, he’ll be the one engineering the final scoring drive. This is destiny, and the sands in the hour glass run only one way, people; it’s inevitable.

Except I’m not as convinced that the "inevitable" is, in fact, inevitable as it was a month ago. All week long I’ve heard about how this is the game where Mark Sanchez shows his true colors: A rookie quarterback nervous to be on a big stage and a little too bold considering his limited experience. The turnover is inevitable, and Braylon Edwards isn’t going to be there when it counts. I’m pretty sure Mike Francesa has devoted this entire week to reading his burn book entries on B-Easy and El Guapo. Great, but let me read the situation in a way that is equally truthful: The Jets have beaten a divisional champion and a Super Bowl contender without their quarterback or hyper talented receiver having good games. Mark Sanchez is due? You’re damn right he is; he’s due to make a team pay for pushing all their chips in on stopping the run. Somewhere, Braylon Edwards is repeating the words of his own father doubting him and getting pissed about his drops, and knowing that he, too, is due to taste the explosive game that inevitably comes to players of his talent.. And maybe, just maybe, this is that week. Sure, the Colts can beat the Jets we’ve seen up to this point, but that assumes that Edwards, Sanchez, and even Keller and Cotchery aren’t incredibly dangerous weapons in and of themselves. Mark Sanchez isn’t sick, and he isn’t a liability, and this week, this is the game where Mark Sanchez shows his true colors: A first round pick with the arm to make every throw, the talent to use his physical gifts, and the guts to take shots when he thinks they're there, with a receiving corps built on elite talents (Keller and Edwards) and the best hands in the AFC (Cotchery). And if THAT is the Jets team that the Colts need to beat, one that is ACTUALLY executing to perfection (and not just playing the really, really effective single dimension game that the media has mistaken for perfection), then I’m not sure even Peyton Manning can drag his squad to that finish line. Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Some might say it’s inevitable…

Endgame 2010 - Indianapolis Colts

2010-01-22T19:07:00.005-05:00

If the Colts Were a Song:

Jim Jones - "Only One Way Up"

Who Are the Colts?:

It must be strange days for Peyton Manning. Not so long ago, there was no doubt he’d fall short of ultimate success; now it seems inevitable that he’ll have everything he’s ever wanted. Statistical achievement, marketable fame, and now the chance at victory, repeated, sustained victory. Strange days for those of us who watch him, too. We’d all gotten used to the post 2006 Manning, the one who had tasted victory and was all smiles, finally looking like he’d been satisfied. Silly us and sillier him for thinking that the angry, insecure monster inside truly great competitors goes away when it’s been fed. Any pretense that this season was any less desperate than his playoff runs before the ring went away when we saw his face as 14-0 became 14-1 as he sat on the sidelines. Anger, hot, burning indignation at the sting of defeat, particularly defeat that he couldn’t control, told us everything we need to know about the Colts this season. As much as this year has looked like destiny finally taking shape for the Colts, and for their leader, this team has fought every bit as hard for their chance at the title as their remaining opponents. They did it because as much as their opponents want their first taste of victory, these Colts don’t want to let it go. You think it’s hard being the barbarians at the gates? Try being the emperor, when everybody wants what’s yours almost as badly as you want to keep it. That Manning and his two or three peers in talent on this team have kept control of their division, and really their conference for this long is a feat that must have required equal parts talent and anxious, frantic, clinging tension.

It almost makes you feel sorry for a team that never lost when its starters took the field. Almost. Make no mistake, though, the Colts are the favorite to win this thing. They have been since the playoffs started. I’d imagine they resent you for ever thinking the Ravens had a chance, and are even more pissed off that you think the Jets are going to make them worry for a second this Sunday. Much of that dominant attitude traces back to Manning. Enough has been written on just how good he is, but if there was ever any doubt before, he’s clearly the best quarterback to play the game. Not the most successful, by any means, but if you don’t believe there’s a difference, then you’re reading the wrong blog. This year, with a team that would otherwise be mediocre, Manning threw the team on his back and made them not just winners, but elite. All of this is not to say that he hasn’t had help. Dallas Clark never gets his due when people refer to him as a “safety valve”. He’s every bit the weapon that Antonio Gates is, perhaps even more of a weapon thanks to his ability to work from various spots in the formation and beat defenses underneath or over the top. He has the same sixth sense for Manning’s preferences that made Marvin Harrison the best receiver in the league for so many years. On the other hand, what Reggie Wayne lacks in consistency, he makes up for in destructive potential. Those rare misfires between him and Manning? More often than not, it’s because Wayne is a step further ahead of the coverage than Manning expected (GASP). You don’t become a top five receiver and the one player to put the scare into Revis Island without being hyper talented and devastatingly precise in execution (Wayne will carry Marvin Harrison’s legacy as an incredible receiver through the destruction of Harrison’s character in the courts and the media). Oh, and Pierre Garcon (I can’t find the squiggle under the C in word, but you know it’s there) is scarily fast, and Austin Collie is Michael Crabtree with a more reasonable price tag. The end result is a pass attack that is second best in the league and able to attack quickly on all levels.

This is a very good thing for the Colts, because for a team that everyone expects to win, there’s not a whole lot of reliable components in this machine. The run game, for starters, needs to find a better word than “abysmal”. Last in the league, it’s a credit to Manning and his receivers that this team doesn’t turn the ball over a whole lot more. Meanwhile, this defense, though breathtakingly fast (Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, on any other team, are perennial Pro Bowlers), is surprisingly soft in the middle (24th against the rush) and vulnerable to getting picked apart through the air (14th against the pass). All of this makes for an interesting matchup against the Jets, particularly because as one-dimensional as the Jets are accused of being, this Colts squad is equally one dimensional. When the pass attack works, the Tampa 2 defense effectively limits opponents’ points, and the Colts win. If it doesn’t…well, we haven’t had to figure that out yet this season.

Do you understand how hard that has to have been? This team has had these same flaws since last season, and they still managed to run off a ridiculous streak of regular season wins. Hell, they had to DECIDE to lose. They have the kinds of flaws that make their peers ordinary, and yet there is no doubt that the Colts are extraordinary, and have been extraordinary, and, barring and major changes, will remain extraordinary. So it makes sense that Manning, the undeniable leader of the gang, has seemed tense. Because this team will go as far as he and his fellow two or three rare talents can take them, and he knows it, the same way he’s known it since he arrived in Indianapolis. It’s wearing on him, which could be a shame, because it’s rare in any sport for a player to achieve this level of success year after year on the strength of his own will to make his team great. But for as long as it lasts, this team will remain special. Maybe that’s what we’ll remember about this team when their run inevitably ends. In a league built on the stars aligning for an entire team in order to achieve victory, two or three special players on this team have elevated an entire organization to their level, and have imposed their will on the rest of the league. This stands in stark contrast to the rest of the league’s elite, where systems and coaches take, and frequently deserve, the credit. The fact that those players were willing and able to take that responsibility on themselves, to decide they could and would change the course of the league on their own, makes this favorite as compelling as any underdog, and probably more significant.

Endgame 2010 – Minnesota Vikings

2010-01-21T21:24:00.007-05:00

If the Vikings were a song:

Who Are the Vikings?:

Am I a bad person for not rooting for the Saints? Scratch that; am I a terrible person for actively rooting against the Saints? I’m aware that every Saints victory rebuilds an orphanage in New Orleans, but this far removed from Hurricane Katrina (and yes, I recognize that there is still an unbelievably pressing need for repair and revitalization work to be done in the community affected), am I really supposed to believe that a football team is “good for America”? I can’t be the only one who watches Drew Brees channel “300” in his pregame chant, or hears about Reggie Bush’s marriage promise to Kim Kardashian if he wins the championship, or listens to Jeremy Shockey talk about being undervalued, and gets the overwhelming feeling that in spite of the amazing things this team and the individuals it contains can accomplish, they’re kind of…well…douchebags. That’s why I’m thankful for the Vikings. In their construction and success, they’ve given us something that the Saints can never be due to their circumstances and composition: An antihero. Put it this way: If you root for Superman, then the Saints are your team, “Boondock Saints” is a cinematic masterpiece, and “The Buried Life” will be a life-changing television show. If, however, you think Superman maybe, even if he IS a nice guy, kind of has an ass kicking coming, then the Vikings are your team. Meet the Bizarro Saints, people; Vikings am built for win.

Let’s begin at the beginning; ESPN has ruined Brett Favre’s legacy as a football player. In force feeding us the image of a freewheeling man-child whose smiles added to his QB rating, the WWL has made a polarizing caricature out of a physical freak who should be undoubtedly respected for his skill set. Go back and look at what he did to the Cowboys and act like he’s not making throws that maybe two other quarterbacks in the entire league can make. Hell, that Greg Lewis last second TD pass from earlier this year that everyone was so ready to chalk up to “just throwing it up for grabs” might be the best long pass of this season OR last season. Knocking on 40’s door, Favre has put together his best statistical season (33 TD to 7 INT), and has done so without losing the pocket shiftiness and ability to improvise that have always made him an elite offensive weapon. Oh, and I know it’s no longer popular to say it, but is it so bad that he looks like he enjoys the game? The league has enough joyless football robots (every QB since 1998 has been doing a poor Peyton impression); why not sit back and enjoy a guy who looks like it’s not all a well choreographed dance? Compared to Brees’s methodical, precise attack, Favre’s think on the fly style (complete with a nasty chip on his shoulder) is practically Jazz out there.

Whether it starts with Favre or not, that same loose, split personality style goes to the rest of the team, making them either a flawed reflection or a nightmare matchup for their upcoming NFC Championship opponents. Sidney Rice is a southern fried Marques Colston, swallowing smaller corners in his shadow and using his body . Oh, and he might have better hands than Colston, too. Reggie Bush looks at Percy Harvin and gets upset about being drafted two years too early. Even Bernard Berrian fits, as the sort of speedy second option that the Saints seem to clone year after year (quick, where was Devery Henderson three years ago…my point exactly…). Throw in a defensive front that is built to give the Saints problems (strong middle combined with freakish athleticism around the edge that has led to a league leading 48 sacks...seriously, is there an end besides Mario Williams more freakishly athletic than Jared Allen?), and there’s no reason the Vikings shouldn’t win this.

Unless, of course, they get caught up in a shootout instead of an ugly war. Ugly wars are made for the Vikings, with their fear inducing defense and matchup advantages on the individual level. Shootouts, however, are the stomping grounds of the Saints. Given enough possessions, the system corrects itself, and starts to execute toward perfection. Which means the following: Adrian Peterson needs to be too fast to stop in the middle, too strong to stop around the edges, and every bit the unsolvable riddle that he is when he is at 100%. Forget Bizarro; Adrian Peterson needs to go Doomsday on the Saints defenders. If he has another game where he can’t break 100 yards, the Saints are eventually going to get the time they need to outscore the Vikings the way they can outscore every offense in the league. If Peterson keeps the clock moving, however, and forces a surprisingly opportunistic secondary to stay home in the middle of the field, I’m not sure the Saints will have an answer for Peterson. True, Favre may have helped shape this team’s identity as a championship contender, but Adrian Peterson has been waiting since 2007 for this stage, and at this point, the only thing that can stop him from taking what he wants is himself. Angry, deadly, and terrifying, and potentially self destructive…say hi to the bad guys.