This week on the podcast, we talk about whether or not the Bears are real, we lament the demise of the 49ers (or, as Mac would put it, we launch the fireworks for the Chiefs), play "Diagnosis Football" with a couple of ailing teams and players, and basically lose our minds during the Rundown. It's my party, and I'll talk football if I want to.
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Sorry for the delay, but this one is a doozy...
- I’m not sure what can be said about the 49ers at this point. Certainly, a lot of blame has been rightly put on Jimmy Raye, an offensive coordinator who stubbornly refused to take his myriad targets and spread the field, trusting Alex Smith to buy Frank Gore room to move in the defensive front with the pass game. Still, this whole thing feels…off. Vernon Davis getting just 6 targets in a game in which the Chiefs jumped out to an early lead seems like a mistake. Worse still was the defense’s inability to put real pressure on Matt Cassel, who has been flustered under pressure all year, with 0 sacks on the day. In the end, though, you have to wonder if it might be time to move on from Alex Smith. This team is too talented at its offensive skill positions for Alex Smith to be playing with this little confidence (Note to anyone considering Mike Nolan as a head coach: He still hasn’t lived this down, and this team’s stagnation for the last few years is as much on him as anybody else). Smith’s inability to take advantage of good single coverage matchups has shut down Frank Gore’s ground game, which has, in turn, further limited Smith’s options, which was supposed to be the greatest strength this offense had. In the end, a move to a new offense, helmed by a new quarterback (FREE TROY SMITH) who has the mobility to buy receivers like Crabtree and Davis the extra time or space they clearly need, looks like the only way to really turn things around.
- I’m buying the Chiefs. Say what you will about the lack of marquee names (irrelevant) or the lack of depth at receiver (a deceptive truth), but this team is proving that you can’t teach speed, and enough speed on the offensive side of the ball eventually kills teams that can’t win shootouts or control the clock. Between McCluster and Charles (who combined for 126 yards as a TD through the air, with Charles adding another 97 yards on the ground), the backs can more than make up for the lack of a speed threat at wide receiver, as both are capable of lining up practically anywhere on the field. That trick play that opened Bowe up deep? That’s the start of a beautiful thing if the Chiefs start to realize that a quickness ground game can be just as effective at opening up receivers as one that goes for power between the tackles. Furthermore, that kind of speed means that this offense isn’t a fluke; hell, we may have just seen them play their first truly competent game. Given a bye week to prepare, is it crazy to think this team could steal one from either a Colts team whose zones won’t shift fast enough to keep up or a Texans team whose run defense is slowly getting exposed as suspect, then run the table through a weak November schedule (JAX, BUF, OAK, DEN, ARI, SEA) to enter the last month of their season (and their last three divisional games) with a 10-1 record the opposition can’t catch? Just a great job of matching talent to system, then using both to their full potential.
- Honestly, if you’re the Lions, I think you fire Shaun Hill for the simple fact that he only targeted Calvin Johnson 7 times. Against that undersized, relatively weak secondary, the Lions should have had an aerial field day, with Megatron sitting at the head of the table. Instead, they managed a pedestrian 237 yards and just 1 TD through the air, along with 2 INT. Also, why rush an undersized Jahvid Best into that defensive front at all? A stubborn consistency is what gets coaches fired, Jim Schwartz. I honestly believe this might be the best 0-3 team in football, but at some point, they need to decide to lean heavily on their strengths instead of trying to be some balanced team they simply aren’t equipped to be.
- No, Vikings, you aren’t back. Still, that was a better example of how the game plan should look as long as Sidney Rice is gone.
- How bad is the Patriots secondary? Ryan Fitzpatrick went 20/28 and hung 287 yards and 2 TD on the day. Yes, there were 2 INT to go along with it, but this team has all the earmarks of a secondary that gets killed by bigger deep ball receivers (ahem…JETS). They can take advantage of obvious mistakes by the quarterback, but if you can isolate them, their physical talent (and make no mistake, those corners, particularly McCourty, all have the physical talent to make life difficult through the air) gets outweighed by a lack of body control and positioning. Throw in an AFC in which the playoff contenders are all sporting oversized deep threats, and this team is going to be asked to win a lot of shootouts. That said, this offense can go with anybody, and if their secondary gets coached up the way Belichick has coached up less gifted players, they’ll be a scary playoff team, but it’s going to be one of the more frantic runs to the playoffs that Pats fans have experienced in the last decade. Whatever the reflection of “grinding it out” is, this is that.
- Look, the franchise is a mess, but there is no way you’re convincing me that releasing Trent Edwards wasn’t the right move for the Bills. Hell, I’d just rotate through QBs all year to see if there was anybody worth getting excited about. Oh, and we’ll discuss this later, but if they take Jake Locker…oh man…we’re gonna need a better word for “bust”.
- How is nobody talking about Gene Smith as a very good coach yet? He worked Sean Payton like a speed bag on Sunday, controlling the clock for almost 46 minutes compared to Payton’s 27. Make no mistake, that Saints are the most talented roster in the NFC South, if not the whole league, but the Falcons (and, to a lesser extent, the 49ers) gave everybody a blueprint for beating them: Control the clock, force them to go entirely vertical by clamping down on the run (this is where the loss of Reggie Bush becomes more important, and punish the offense for being one-dimensional by creating turnovers. No, you’re never going to shut the Saints offense down, but if you can turn their forest fire of an offense into a controlled burn, you can beat them in the last quarter (or OT, as the case was here).
- In fact, looking at that Atlanta roster, and particularly their weak secondary (Dunta Robinson is not scaring anybody), this team has to be one of the better tactical successes of the last few years. After Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, the receiving talent falls off of a cliff, and Ryan still played a consistent, clean game against an opportunistic secondary.
- I can’t get excited about a Titans team that wins thanks to bizarre turnovers and gutless play calling. That may fly against the Giants, but at some point, particularly later in the year, teams are going to force VY to open things up for Johnson through the air, and instead of building towards that, Fisher seems to be hoping for lightning in a bottle when the pressure is on. That isn’t a plan to win; it’s a plan to survive, which is a total waste of the southpaw style of offense the Titans are capable of delivering.
- That loss does nothing to temper my excitement about the Bucs. First of all, the Steelers may have the best defense in the league right now, or at least the best that people are inexplicably terrified to go all in against through the air (seriously, everybody, you’re not opening up the pass with the run against these guys, so stop trying). Second, the Bucs defense was adjusting to the loss of starting safety Tanard Jackson, who is helpful to a young defensive front in run support. Third, that loss finally got Raheem Morris to realize what the rest of us knew all along: He’s probably not winning it all this year anyway, so why not see what kind of talent he’s got with Freeman throwing to both Mike Williams AND Arrelious Benn, who is finally practicing with the first team and put up 33 yards on 3 catches on Sunday. The whole reason this team has been catching both opponents and football fans off guard is their unpredictability by virtue of their youth, and Benn is yet another athletic prodigy who, with discipline and coaching, could become a mismatch generating weapon on this Bucs offense. With a year of strong coaching and development, the weapons that are already on this team could be nightmarish for defenders and offensive lines next year, and with another strong draft this team could be as complete as any roster in football, and with more dangerous talents, too.
- Here’s my pitch for why you don’t pull Carson Palmer, who looks like one of the worst quarterbacks in football, and with one of the best receiving rosters around him: Inexplicably, this team trusts him to turn it around, and with this offensive roster that trust is worth more than whatever minor uptick in stats the available replacements might give you. While they’re finding ways to win in spite of Palmer, the receivers haven’t turned on him at all, a fact made more remarkable considering the ages and personality types in this corps. If he can even approach average, the Bengals are going to be a much scarier team on offense, and history tells us that he can do at least that much. Meanwhile, pulling him sets his replacement, and the team as a whole, up for the kind of turmoil that actually ruins seasons. While the team might be unwilling to throw a veteran presence like Carson Palmer under the bus, a younger quarterback would get eaten alive by virtue of his lack of standing in the league and the locker room. That sort of problem plays itself out in disruptive disorganization on the field, and leads to teams losing the sort of close calls that the Bengals have managed to eek out over the last two weeks. If there were a stronger, veteran option available, things might be different, but in this case, there’s something to be said for letting the win-loss column determine whether or not the team should let Carson Palmer work his issues out on the field.
- Just once, I wish a solid Seneca Wallace (18/24, 1 TD, no turnovers) stat line would coincide with a team victory, but I suppose that’s asking a lot for a team whose best receiving threat (unless you count Josh Cribbs) is a very good second banana, and whose coach seems content to run a game plan that aims to finish close, and maybe even eek out a win, but never impose its will on a team. Yes, that last bit was harsh on Mangini, who has done a very good job on the personnel front, but it’s worth pointing out that Cribbs was run out of the backfield (where he’s been most dangerous, particularly in tandem with the equally speedy Wallace) for just two attempts and 20 yards, Wallace’s wheels have pretty much been tethered to the backfield (1 rush for 0 yards), and MoMass was targeted just once. I’d understand the hesitation to put together a truly unique game plan built around a lineup that is at once deeply flawed and uniquely gifted if the Browns were supposed to contend for a playoff spot, or even if a stronger, more evenly talented quarterback was coming back as the starter, but that’s not the case here. The Browns only have a shot at scaring teams if they try something truly different with that roster, and anybody who thinks Delhomme gives the Browns a better, or even equal chance of winning has forgotten the last year, including his opening day start for the Browns. I had hoped that, along with his deceptively smart personnel moves, Mangini would be more open to embracing a “win at all costs” mentality, one that provides the only path to victory available for the talent he has. Defensively, he’s taken that step; offensively, he’s scared to pull the trigger, a fact that is all the more disappointing considering how close this team has come to winning for three weeks running.
- I feel like the light switched on for the Cowboys, who finally realized, three quarters into what could have been their third straight loss, that they have the kind of passing weapons that every other team in the league wishes they had.
- Steven Jackson is joining Steve Smith in my hall of NFL street legends. 10 carries for 58 yards against an underrated defensive front that was daring Bradford to throw is impressive, and he’s been putting up rushing numbers like that since he arrived, with even worse passing games supporting him. If you watched that TD run, you understand that he’s in contention for the best combination of speed and power at running back in the last 5 years.
- Also, I’m starting to dig Bradford as a quarterback. He’s the good kind of patient, buying time with his legs for his reads to develop (as opposed to standing and waiting in the pocket), and not heaving the ball into any coverage he sees fit.
- I’m sticking with my pick of the Eagles winning the NFC East. Vick is playing smart while remaining unafraid to keep defenders scared of his wheels, and those skill positions are too fast not to get open with the time Vick buys them with his feet. Throw in a defense that is forcing opponents to play a slower game against the Eagles shoot-em-up style (7th against passing yards, and that includes games against air-it-out monsters Detroit and Green Bay), and the Eagles are too fast to defend comfortably, and too scary defensively to strike back at quickly. The beauty of the new Michael Vick is that he’s always had the weapon of his athleticism, but now it’s a scalpel as opposed to a machete, cutting only what he wants and leaving no collateral damage to the team.
- With Moreno injured, the Broncos offense has become unbalanced to the point of spectacle. Orton going 37/57 for 476 yards through the air while the ground game averages just 2.6 yards per carry on 18 carries goes beyond playing to your strengths and into ignoring your weaknesses out of spite. Balance is a terrible goal for an NFL coach to have, but it’s a necessary guidepost to prevent a team from becoming totally irrelevant. Also, somebody should probably have stepped in to cover Austin Collie (12 catches for 171 yards and 2 TD) by catch number 6.
- Darren McFadden has quietly turned a corner in his first three games. He’s averaged 5.3, 4.8, and 4.2 yards per carry in each game, with at least 95 yards each time, finally finding the end zone in this last start against the Cardinals. If the Raiders hadn’t beaten themselves with the kicking game, they’d be 2-1 right now, with two games to play against the 3-0 Chiefs. Just remember, it’s a long season, and Chaz Schilens is still getting healthy, meaning that run lanes are only going to get more open for McFadden, who has shown the burst that made his speed so deadly in college, and has been an apt receiver this year. Maybe the three year learning curve applies to RB/WR hybrids as well.
- Oh, and I told you so about DHB. Hell, he’s even proving me right about being better than Crabtree this year.
- We can act surprised all we want, but the Chargers have never been a particularly disciplined team; they’ve just had the high power offense to make up for their failings in other aspects of the game. Hmm…what changed this year…who could possibly be missing…what player that this team was so convinced it could leave behind that they pushed him to the point of refusing to ever play for them again could I be thinking of…
- Also, that game made me miss Neon Leon.
- My favorite part of this Chicago Bears phenomenon is that Jay Cutler and Mike Martz, whose irritable personalities have alienated most fans, just might be proving each other right with their play. Martz is giving Cutler the sort of bombs away game plan his arm was designed for, and Cutler is giving Martz the kind of daring mixed with accuracy that his game plan requires. The result is the fifth best pass offense in the league without a single elite wide receiver, and Cutler being in the same statistical category through three games as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. For the record, he’s statistically better than the last two, and I wouldn’t trade any of their top four receivers for any one of Cutler’s (with the POSSIBLE exception of Greg Olsen).
- It’s crass to brag, but let’s just look at the numbers: Mark Sanchez was 15/28 for 256 yards, 3 TD, and no INT. Chad Henne was 26/44 for 363 yards, 2TD, and 1 INT. Oh, and one of those Henne touchdowns (along with 166 of his passing yards) went to a top flight physical receiver being covered by a number two corner. The comparison is OVER, people; at this point, the Dolphins are just getting in their own way (Brown and Williams had just 18 carries despite averaging over 4 yards per carry combined) to try and prove a point.
Whew. That’s all for this week. Follow us on twitter at @titraffic, and we’ll try to get more up this week. A podcast is forthcoming, as is a preview section, and maybe even a little something on the Browns (because I know WHAT DRAWS RATINGS!!!).
All the games that really matter; three sentences worth of description.
49ers @ Chiefs (1:00 PM, Sunday)
Mike Singletary is exactly the kind of coach the 49ers need to turn talented underachievers into a high functioning team built on maximizing the talents of individuals plagued by a variety of discipline issues. Still, if he can’t get his staff, which is unfortunately all the wrong kinds of “old school,” to start rolling with the new in its game planning, this highly talented team is going to walk into a hostile stadium and lose to a team that, though significantly strapped for talent, is finding ways to win. This team’s talent will either crush its opponents, or its coaches, and this week will be a major factor in determining which is going to be the result.
Lions @ Vikings (1:00 PM, Sunday)
First, they ran into officials that they couldn’t rely on to do their jobs. Next, they ran into a player they couldn’t possibly imagine playing the way he’s playing. This week, however, the Lions either prove their raw, angry physicality is evolving into a cohesive plan of attack, or they’re a pleasant sideshow that loses well.
Buccaneers @ Steelers (1:00 PM, Sunday)
One team’s swagger comes from a history intertwined with that of the league itself, the presence of Noll and Cowher looming large over the sidelines. The other has the kind of swagger the only comes from not having been around long enough to know any better. Steal a third win from the kings of the old guard, Tampa, and the fever dream gets to last longer than anyone could have imagined.
Jets @ Dolphins (8:20 PM, Sunday)
You’re either a real villain or a schoolyard bully in this league. The bullies fade when you hit them back, while the villains just attack harder, more furiously than before. The Jets are 1-1, and this game gets to be the rubber match on the identity crisis.
Packers @ Bears (8:30 PM, Monday)
Up until now, the Packers have been able to run away from opponents. Against a Bears team whose offense is proving to be just as powerful and versatile, they could have trouble, and you can’t run from trouble. Ain’t no place that far.
Back with almost no popular demand, it's the second episode of season 2 of the Empire Football Podcast. This week, we defend indefensible claims (GAMES!), talk about the Jets (PREMATURE JOY!), and once again attempt to discern where the upsets are coming from this week (LOST MONEY!!!).
Download this puppy here.
- The Bucs could give a damn about a five year plan. This team is just talented enough to threaten anybody they play, just unknown enough to be difficult to game plan for, and just young enough to not understand that they shouldn’t be very good right now. Mike Williams is looking more and more like the steal of the draft with a touchdown catch in each game so far, forcing defenses to account for him and free up space for Kellen Winslow (who put up 4 receptions for 83 yards on Sunday, including a crucial 40 yard grab to save a TD drive). Meanwhile, the defense is just punishing teams on the line, with corners just tough enough to stay with receivers long enough for a stunningly athletic front to work. The worst run defense last season, Tampa is the 15th best through two games, with both of those games coming against run heavy teams (Cleveland and Carolina). Most impressive of all is how Josh Freeman looks. The stat line isn’t gaudy (12/24 for 178 yards) but it is effective (2 TD, 0 INT), with a similar stat line in the previous game (but with 1 INT to go with the 2 TD). He’s punishing teams with his athleticism when they ignore that he can run and is difficult to tackle (he’s put up over 30 yards in both of the first two games, showing flashes of Big Ben), and he’s using this knack for knowing when to run to open up single coverage mismatches for his gifted receivers. The end result is a team that is fun to watch because it took calculated gambles over the past two years by drafting raw talent at need positions and throwing them into the fire, and the gambles are actually paying dividends. Hell, Kellen Winslow is the veteran leadership in that locker room; let’s just all agree that applying logic to that would be stupid.
- I’m withholding judgment on Clausen until he gets a week’s worth of work with the first team. He actually looked like he was ready to throw some strikes in the pocket, but that’s a team so drained of receiver talent (aside from Steve Smith) that it might just be a quarterback killer.
- Yeah…I’m really sorry about that whole “But maybe this could be another weirdly good year for Derek Anderson” thing. That’s going on the list of reasons why people will search these archives and realize they should never, ever, ever listen to me.
- It’s also starting to look like the Free Seneca Wallace campaign is going to be on that list as well.
- In all seriousness, I don’t think the Browns are a bad team, just a slow one. The problem with the NFL, however, is that without speed you lose games like the 16-14 matchup with the Chiefs in painful, discouraging ways, as they don’t have the quick strike ability to come back or put easy distance between themselves and a trailing opponent. MoMass, though potentially a strong receiver, is all possession gifts and NO deep threat gifts, which is a problem for a team that insists on using him as their vertical weapon. Brian Robiskie looks like a serviceable slot guy who will make his way all around the league over the course of his career. Perhaps the biggest question I have is this: Why would the Browns insert Seneca Wallace into a game plan built for Jake Delhomme? After all the hype about what this team could do with a Cribbs/Seneca backfield tandem, to watch the Browns come out and try to pocket pass their way to success (something Wallace has done with mediocre success in his career) was a depressing way to limit the most dynamic athletes you have on the team. Worse still, the most exciting offseason acquisition this team made, TE Ben Watson, is being limited to checkdown status when he has the physical ability of an Antonio Gates. The one creative play action pass I saw all day resulted in a beautiful deep TD to Cribbs, who shouldn’t even be the team’s deep threat. In the end, considering how many receivers were on the open market this offseason, and how many were available in the draft, running these pass catchers out there in this scheme for a second straight season is a bigger knock on the front office than anything anybody is saying about Mangini as an in-game coach.
- Sneaking in as the sleeper “horrible move of the offseason” is the decision by the Bengals to not pickup a competent backup to Carson Palmer, who looks absolutely lost in an offense that relies on his ability to read and distribute. It’s a scary thought that someone who looked so good so recently has become a dinosaur, but isn’t that what it feels like? How else do you explain top flight receiving talent failing to find the end zone once, or defenses confidently clamping down on a run game that was one of the league’s best last season. 16/35 for 167 yards is bad, particularly against a so-so secondary, and particularly with that kind of receiving talent. I’ve been saying that Carson has looked shook since his ACL tear, and honestly, this is as good an example of that as the rough years after the injury were. Worse still, leaving themselves with no backup, the Bengals are faced with the daunting task of either finding a downfield threat to open up defenses and create the single coverage necessary to get their elite route runners open, or teaching Carson Palmer, who has always been an artillery gun, to become an automatic weapon. Sad, but it’s why you need to roll with the talent you have rather than force talented pieces into a system they aren’t ideally built to run.
- That said: A win is a win is a win. This Bengals team defense gutted an offense that Baltimore spent a LOT of money on this offseason. In fact, where the Bengals need to learn to become a distribution offense, the Ravens need to learn how to take big shots with the expensive toys they brought into fold. Flacco failed to average more than 10 yards per catch with all but two of his receivers, and only found one in the end zone: Derrick Mason, of course. The problem is that they didn’t bring in Housh (who Flacco failed to find all game), Boldin, who Flacco seems to think is Mark Clayton), or Donte’ Stallworth (unfortunately injured) so that Flacco could reserve the big plays for Derrick Mason and never find anybody else past 9 yards. Either Cam Cameron, who seemed to work wonders with less last season, is scared to get crazy with his war machine of a quarterback and a battery of mismatch creating receivers, or Joe Flacco, when the pressure is on, doesn’t feel comfortable with any of these targets. I’m partial to the latter theory, and it’s because Flacco’s skill set seems built to crush teams over the 10 yard marker regularly, but hasn’t yet been proven effective in the kind of grinding, jab to set the uppercut offense that these personnel are tailor made to run. Told you that Stallworth injury was trouble…
- Quick: Who’s the best quarterback in the league after two games? Jay Cutler. Yeah, the Jay Cutler who was all but written off as dead last year. More remarkable still is that he’s been able to put up quality statistics and minimize turnovers while working in the complete absence of a running game (Forte is averaging 2.9 yards per carry). Certainly, not every team is going to let him fling the ball around the field like the Cowboys did (4 different receivers had 4 or more catches, and the team managed to involve Greg Olsen for a deep TD, a positive sign for Mike Martz). That said, Cutler has managed to make the most of his incredible arm (all but one of his pass catchers are averaging over 10 yards per catch), and is finding ways to use Forte despite the Bears offensive line problems (Forte is the leading receiver with 188 yards and 3 TD). If the defense can hold on to where it is right now (slightly above average at 12th in the league, and after facing two potent offenses), Cutler just might be good enough to make this team better than anybody thought by virtue of its offense, one on which he is the sole shining star. Considering the receivers, running game, and line he has, his statistical position on top of the league seems all the more impressive.
- Meanwhile, look no further than a run game that averaged only 1.8 yards on 20 carries for an explanation as to the Cowboys’ problems. You can work primarily through the air, but unless you’re using the pass to open up the run, meaning that you have a back with the quickness to take advantage of more widely set spreads and open defensive fronts (looking at you, Felix Jones), teams will figure you out, create turnovers, and outrun you more often than you outrun them.
- I honestly don’t understand why the underground football brain trust has turned on Michael Vick as the starter for the Eagles, and I LOVE me some Football Outsiders. Still, setting aside that his play so far has made him the 4th highest rated quarterback in the league, to say nothing of his 140 yards rushing, why is it so crazy that Andy Reid would go with the hot hand this year instead of the project QB? Yeah, I know that we all told one another that the Eagles were a rebuilding project, but wasn’t that because of Kevin Kolb? If Vick is playing well, then look around that offense (Jackson and Maclin are basically lightning and more lightning, Celek is looking as good as any receiving TE in football not named Gates, and McCoy is perfect for the system) and tell me that they aren’t talented enough to outscore any opponent with a dynamic QB who can survive with an imperfect line and keep defenders down to acknowledge his speed. Then look around the NFC East and tell me which team is so clearly head and shoulders above the Eagles that they can’t realistically win their division in a year when they were supposed to be biding their time until those draft picks they stocked up for McNabb come to fruition. If the Bucs are teaching us anything, it’s that while rebuilding isn’t necessarily a bad thing, playing to rebuild is neither fun nor particularly effective compared to gambling big and seeing what works. Eagles take the NFC East, barring injury, with Vick as the starter. The man is making everyone in the league look 20% slower when he’s on the field, and has had two decent defensive fronts looking downright lost when he starts to move in the backfield. With a little pocket discipline to keep from relying on the physicality, Vick’s physicality is all the more impressive as a weapon, and we get a glimpse of Vick's initial promise of an offense with the quarterback as both distributor and offensive tool in anf of himself.
- This Bills team is the worst NFL team of the last 5 years. People keep wanting to bring up the 0-16 Lions when I tell them that. Guys, that Lions team would have beaten this Bills team 9 out of 10 times, and only went 0-16 because they were committed to seeing just what they had to work with before rebuilding around Stafford. Meanwhile, this team, after 11 years of failure, has restarted things with Chan Gailey, no quarterbacks of note, and a top 10 draft pick running back who is averaging 1.1 yards per carry. It’s not even CLOSE.
- At what point does Bud Adams step in and ask Jeff Fisher just what the hell his problem is with Vince Young? Pulling Young in the second game of the season after a year long process of getting his confidence back is the height of stupidity, and suggests that one of these two has to leave if the other is going to function in Tennessee. If that’s the case, and I expect most people to think this is blasphemy, shouldn’t it be Fisher? The man has been to one Super Bowl. The next best team he’s ever had flamed out against a so-so Ravens team in 2008, and his other successful squads have either been helmed by Young or the product of turning a decent team into a playoff squad, but not quite a contender. Meanwhile, Young is only 27 years old, still young enough to build a team around, and, with the right coaching, has shown that he can be a successful starting quarterback in the NFL, particularly considering the ground game this team has built around him. He’s the sort of versatile threat at QB that most coaches dream of having, and yet Fisher seems almost disdainful about playing him as a starter. On the year, even with the debacle in Pittsburgh, Young is having an above average season, the sort of thing that makes Fisher’s decision to bench him all the more ridiculous and potentially disastrous for a Titans team that will need Young to play at a good to great level if they’re going to be contenders. Last week it looked like the blending of Fisher’s style as a coach with Young’s abilities as a player could make this team a dark horse Super Bowl contender; now it looks like that very combination could be what keeps them tied to mediocrity.
- I still don’t buy the Dolphins as a legitimate playoff team. They’ve struggled to win against a Vikings team that was giving them the game and is in the middle of imploding, and a Bills team that is the worst NFL team of the last five years. This weekend, the Dolphins should realize that not every team is going to be so abysmal on offense (cue Schotty drawing up a Jets game plan with two pass plays, both for 7 yards or less).
- Demaryius Thomas, people. I told you about Bay Bay coming out of the draft, and you all insisted on harping about Dez Bryant and the importance of looking polished in college. You know what you can teach in the pros? Polish. Know what you can’t teach? The kind of size and speed combination that creates mismatches any time a defense can’t double cover a player. Oh, and he’s in the perfect offense to learn the importance of route running and have multiple opportunities to play a big role in the offense. Watching him freed from the option system of Georgia Tech is going to be breathtaking, and makes McDaniels look a little less crazy for losing Marshall so willingly.
- The Gradkowski vs. Campbell debate is sad because, considering how this team has functioned, it shouldn’t be a debate: Gradkowski is the right man for the job. Campbell clearly has the tools to unlock the maximum ability at which these skill players can play, but the team doesn’t have the line to allow Campbell to work. Meanwhile, Gradkowski, while more limited as a vertical passer, showed the same knack Sunday that he had last year for working under the unreasonable pressure created by a porous line. The fact that he got DHB involved only furthers the notion that while he’s not the best player in a vacuum, he’s almost certainly the best player at QB for the Raiders right now, and the only real hope they have of proving those that had them as a sleeper to win the division (read: me) right. Sucks when talent has to be set aside for the survival of a flawed system, but there doesn’t appear to be a choice here.
- They really, really, really need to do something about those FG timeouts. Entirely off-field tricks should never trump on-field play or tactics.
- That said, there is no dumber on-field tactic than leaving Andre Johnson in single coverage with a slow, undersized safety. If you’re going to get beaten, make them beat you with someone else, Redskins.
- Yeah…that precision offense of the Jags might have been a little easier to spot against the Broncos defense than a Chargers team that was running away with the game early.
- The Giants don’t have the offensive line to hang with opposition that is devoted to athleticism in the trenches, and the Colts are nothing if not athletic up front, as Dwight Freeney proved on Sunday night. Yes, they caught an angry, ugly Colts team that was looking to prove a point, but that doesn’t change the flaw that the Colts were exposing all night, specifically that if you’re fast around the edges you can harass Eli Manning into a bad night. Eli is a quarterback that functions best with the time to look off or play fake defenders away from where he’d like to go, and that sort of deception only works with time to sell the con to defenses.
- Antonio Gates has played on too many good teams to be an NFL street legend. The man is going to be a Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done. Just an amazing example of what that position can be in the hands of a dynamic athlete and a creative coach.
- Finally: HOW YOU LIKE EL GUAPO MARK SANCHEZ NOW? Don’t phrase it like the Jets won a hard fought battle within the division. Without their all-world cornerback or their all-world center, the Jets manhandled a New England team that everyone was ready to hand the AFC East. Mark Sanchez (21/30, 220 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) showed why the Jets drafted him last year with the fifth pick, and why they should probably play like they did so. The run game was solid, with Tomlinson seizing the lead role from Greene and Greene actually playing like he cared to fight for it. Meanwhile, putting aside subsequent bad behavior (side note: believe me, I hate drunk drivers, but in a league where we give men who hit women a slap on the wrist, the call for public shaming and punishment of a guy who made a mistake in which nobody was hurt seems a bit hypocritical), Braylon Edwards looked like the sort of mismatch nightmare the league has been waiting for him to become for years (5 catches for 45 yards and a TD, including a 2 point conversion). But the star of the show was Dustin Keller (7 catches, 115 yards and a TD), who showed he could one day be every bit the receiving TE that Antonio Gates is if he can add a little precise execution to his undeniable physical gifts. Oh, and Jericho Cotchery put up a TD, but I’ve been telling you he’s the best hands in the AFC East for years, so shame on you for doubting. More exciting still was the defense, which played at an elite level without the player everybody thought they needed in order to be elite. Antonio Cromartie reminded everybody why he was once the most feared cornerback in football, punishing Brady for attacking him one too many times, and Kyle Wilson, though still very raw, played a tighter game than his penalty riddled debut. This, my friends, is the team that I wanted to see all along, one that isn’t afraid to unleash the collection of unstable talents they spent all offseason stockpiling. It’s fitting that the nail in the coffin was a Jayson Taylor forced fumble. For all the talk that this team being too oddly shaped, or too undisciplined to use its individual talents in a cohesive team attack, this past Sunday was an example of why I still think this is the scariest roster in the AFC. Yeah, that first win feels pretty damn good.
Thanks for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow and Friday (posts are increasing as the new job calms down), and a podcast will be up soon, too. In the downtime, make sure you’re following us on twitter at twitter.com/titraffic (or @ titraffic, as the kids say).
For those of you who like rusty, frequently coherent, often interrupted, but actually thought out football discussion, the Empire Football Podcast returns. This week, we talk Derek Anderson (FIREWORKS!), the Seahawks (BALLOONS!), and maybe even some teams you actually care about (PANDERING!!!). Let us know how we can improve in the comments.
Download or stream it HERE.
It's an extra long Hangover thanks to the Monday night Jets debacle and some work craziness. Let's just get to the games...
- After one week, it’s hard to say what to make of the Jaguars. Certainly, there were flashes of 2007 there, with Garrard coolly moving through his reads (16/21, 3 TD and 0 INT), exploiting the defense’s fear of the run, and being careful with the football (he never once looked like he was pushing…unlike Kyle Orton, who ALWAYS pushes when he’s down). If the ground game, while being the focus of opponents’ defenses, can continue to produce at an average clip (MJD averaged 4.2 per carry on 23 carries), this team is shaping up to be the precision based machine that Del Rio turned it into in 2007, when they could have won it all but for a buzzsaw of a Pats team. Equally exciting: The team is finally figuring out how to use TE Marcedes Lewis, who was built for intermediate end zone aerial mismatches.
- I’m also not freaking out if I’m a Broncos fan, considering everything that happened to your team this offseason. The Jags found the mismatch they liked in Lewis and exploited it all day, but with all of the injuries on defense (particularly to Dumerville), it’s hard to imagine this team going through a matchup without any hiccups defensively. Meanwhile, Knowshon Moreno showed more of his diverse skillset than we saw all of last season, and a pass game without its biggest threat (Demaryius Thomas, who is hurt) put up almost 300 yards. No, it’s not going to be smooth sailing, but the McDaniels system is working, and if Tebow can develop passing skills to complement his athletic talent, this offense is going to get a lot better as the year progresses.
- A game that might be worth freaking out over is the 49ers-Seahawks matchup. Look, I get that the Seahawks were jacked up to prove that the new regime works; it’s why I like Carroll as a coach (yes, you can motivate individuals as a group without diminishing their identity) and why I’m not immediately back on the Seattle bandwagon (never forget: FREE SENECA). I also get that the Seahawks were (and kind of still are) a total unknown thanks to the turnover; that’s the only reason why I’m not crucifying the 49ers for getting blown out in a division game. Still, for the Seattle offense to roll out there with Deion Branch and Mike Williams as the top receivers, Justin Forsett as the top running back, and Matt Hasselbeck running the show, and then just bend the San Francisco defensive backfield to their will, is damn near incredible. Almost as preposterous is the fact that the 49ers offense got nothing going on the ground (Gore gained 38 yards on 17 attempts), managed 225 yards of desperation air (and 2 INT), and were kept out of the end zone all game, though this is more understandable when you remember that the Seahawks may have my favorite LB corps in the league (Tatupu, Curry, and Hill), Marcus Trufant is very good when healthy, and the D-line is surprisingly deep and powerful, if not spectacular. Oh, and that 31-6 beatdown happened when their star left tackle was out. It’s a long year, but calling that game a fluke seems like a cop out, particularly given all the skepticism that front office faced for its work. Embrace the unknown, people.
- On a more brief note: That wasn’t all Alex Smith’s fault, but my faith is shaken, if only because he pressed so hard when things got tough, like he thought Nolan was there to yank him for J.T. O’Sullivan all over again.
- Okay, so I know the narrative is that Derek Anderson sucks because Peter King said so and “DID YOU SEE HE ONLY CONNECTED ON 3 OF 15 PASSES TO FITZGERALD AAAARRRRRGGGHHH!”. That said, dude threw for 297 yards, threw no interceptions, and brought his team back in the 4th quarter with a well placed throw to Fitzgerald. I’m not saying he’s a great, or even a good quarterback, but if the whole point of dropping Leinart was choosing someone who believed (and made the team believe) that he could win, don’t you want him going to your best playmaker as many times as possible? Not to mention, Fitzgerald was bracketed to hell all day, making finding him and avoiding picks tough, and Anderson managed to make use of Steve Breaston being in single coverage. No, a winning strategy isn’t as sexy as someone dominating the competition with their own identity, but craft deserves respect.
- As for the kid Bradford…eh. Ndamukong Suh remains the truth
- I’m impressed that the Vikings hung around as long as they did on Thursday. That’s a team that is beaten up, without its top receiver or a healthy QB, and but for one bad turnover following a big hit, these guys could have stolen one of the hardest road games on their schedule. If that pass attack gets settled into its identity, Brad Childress could finally have the offense that solidifies the offensive thinker cred that got him his job
- I also want to see the Saints actually start putting the hurt on people. The death of a thousand pin pricks is cool when both teams are wildly talented (which the Vikings showed they still are), but it won’t work over the long haul, and is no way for an offense this thrilling to get by.
- I haven’t seen a game as ugly as that Buffalo/Miami contest in a long time (read: since MNF Jets/Ravens). Look, I know that Sanchez didn’t get the chance to look good or bad, but can we all agree that Chad Henne, whose team DID allow him to throw, looks bad (21/34 for only 182 yards)? Everything is long or short except for that 7-10 yard window, and without a receiver like Brandon Marshall to bail him out (8 catches for 53 yards off of 13 targets) he would have been in trouble against a stout Buffalo defense. There is no art to his game, just bludgeoning arm strength, making him the perfect Parcells quarterback.
- Oh, and Chan Gailey, when the most savvy move in your repertoire is the “intentional safety,” maybe you should hang it up.
- OK, we can all agree that the Megatron call was a travesty. If you don’t think a referee arbitrarily negating an athletically spectacular performance based on a questionable technicality is always the wrong call, you’re at the wrong blog. Here’s my more sinister and, admittedly, crazier take: After a slate full of ugly, medium to low scoring games, the Megatron call was the biggest example of a trend of refs minimizing the spectacle of the players’ performance on the field in an effort to give owners leverage in the upcoming labor negotiations. Say it’s crazy all you want, but nobody has been more focused on diminishing the importance of individual players (you know, the ones who score the points) than the owners, and we’re about to see why this offseason.
- On a football note, nothing about my opinion of the Bears changes, and as for the Lions, here’s all that changes: That defense is a lot friskier than I thought it would be. Take away two big plays to Matt Forte (one of which was a bizarre combination of poor flat coverage and bad pursuit angles, and the other of which was a young defense losing track of the running back), and you’re left with just 255 yards of Chicago offense through the air (and just 7.73 yards per attempt), and an even more intriguing 3.3 yards per carry on the ground. Look, it SUCKS that Stafford is hurt. It sucks a lot, and it’s going to add time to his development…but it’s not the end of the world for this offense. Shaun Hill has been adequate with decent teams, and these tools are the best he’s had. Stafford will get back soon (hopefully), and hopefully he’ll develop into the distributor this offense needs, but for this team to lose the edge that it showed in its first game back would be a cop out.
- Nothing makes me happier than watching Vincy Young operate on the run, out of the pocket, and hurling the ball downfield with accuracy (13/17, and 9.1 yards per attempt, with 2 TD and 0 INT). It’s hard to find yourself, and for VY to do so, come back to something as difficult as pro football, and succeed would be really special, and not just in a football context. He could do it, too; if he’s at potential, this team is going to be very difficult to beat on either side of the ball, particularly with players that can punish defenses if they aren’t adequately respected (Johnson, underrated receivers, and Young).
- I still believe in the Raiders. That Titans team could mess around and win a Super Bowl this year; the Raiders are just trying to change the direction of the franchise. That said, the protection up front for this team is still horrendous, and plays completely against Campbell’s weakness as someone who tends to overthink the pocket. Campbell has the arm to maximize the physical talents of these receivers, but it may very well be more important that Gradkowski has the quick thinking and ability to work under pressure that allows them to be used at all. Frustrating, but rudimentary execution is a building block toward success; imagined potential, even if it could exist in an ideal universe, would be more of the same old nothing for the Raiders.
- Hakeem Nicks attacks the ball with a recognition that his greatest weapons are his body control and his hands. The result is that his frame is extended beyond it’s static range, and his speed becomes more deadly thanks to the minimal space required for him to be “open”. Granted, it was against a poor Carolina secondary, and it will be interesting to see how the team responds if opponents start to focus on Nicks. Still, those are gifts that are difficult to compensate for without constructing horribly flawed defensive schemes (as opposed to speed or size, both of which can be schemed against with smart ways of doubling coverage assignments without taking people completely out of place). I had wondered if there would be any receiver who could give the Giants flexibility in attack for them to maintain their trench warfare identity, and Nicks certainly is geared to attack defenders as the kind of uniquely gifted receiver who needs to be covered by a uniquely gifted corner in order to be stopped.
- I give Matt Moore one more shot, but otherwise, the future needs to be now for the Carolina quarterbacking prospects. John Fox needs to make his bones with one of these quarterbacks and prove he’s still got juice.
- Oh, and Steve Smith (yes, THE Steve Smith, no matter what they say in New Jersey) may never get to be on a winner while he’s still elite (which he has been for a long time, even past when it should have ended), but he’s a street legend in the NFL. In fact, I’m making this the year of the NFL street legend, and Steve Smith is the standard bearer for the cause.
- Weirdest game of the day: What the hell happened to the Bengals? Are the Patriots that good? After last season, in which the ground game was average at best, the Pats were able to move the ball on the ground effectively with all three of their primary backs, averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the ground, even when the game was out of hand. Meanwhile, over the course of a single, well done draft, the Pats look like they’re a pass attack that can kill teams at ever level by spreading the field, and, as mentioned above, they have the backs to take advantage of spread defenses. No, the defense didn’t look great, but it looked like a scheme that kept the Bengals offense on its heels long enough to let the Pats offense build an insurmountable lead, which means Belichick is back on his frustration game, which is how that dynasty of his got started, if you remember.
- Then again, are the Bengals that bad? I don’t think so, but that front got abused by so-so rushers and a so-so line, negating the strength of their corners. Also, I understand that Cedric Benson was nice last year, but he wasn’t the centerpiece then, and he shouldn’t be the centerpiece now. When the Bengals were on, they figured out how to use their traditional passing scheme to run the ball from a pro set. This year, without a credible deep threat, defenders are able to camp down on intermediate and short routes and dare Carson to go long to receivers who haven’t shown they can (even Shipley, who broke free deep on one route, was easily chased down). Unless the Bengals are committed to distributing the ball and taking multiple stabs in the place of sweeping slices, this offense doesn’t seem to function as a whole, and it can’t do so if Benson is the focal point of the attack. Fear in the face of expectations could kill this team. Sad.
- I mean, it’s cute to trash the Browns, and particularly Eric Mangini (who I have issues with, but mostly as an in-game coach), but don’t forget that without one fluky touchdown, this team wins on Sunday against a Bucs team that I’ve gone on the record saying is going to be a tough beat for opponents thanks to total renovation through the air and a young lightning and thunder combo in the defensive trenches. The fact is that the Browns game plan, executed correctly, would have worked, which seems simple if not for the fact that my gripes with Mangini in New York were based on that NOT being the case there. The problems, then, lie in miscues (though you could make an argument that, once leading, Mangini should have just run to daylight with his backs and taken the ball out of Delhomme’s hands). While Hillis is, by his nature as a running back, relatively simple to deal with either by replacement or reuse (bad as they were, fumbles do happen in the Florida heat), the Delhomme question is one that may very well stare this team in the face for the foreseeable future. The picks, while certainly the product of Delhomme’s admirable competitive streak, were still the kinds of shortsighted mistakes that people feared Delhomme would bring to Cleveland. Yes, I’m a fan of Seneca Wallace (FREE SENECA), but considering how well we heard he and Cribbs worked as a backfield tandem, is it crazy to think that a scheme built around him as a starter would be the kind of move that is effective both for being unique and for being built on the most athletically gifted offensive lineup the Browns can throw out there? Say it with me: A coach is most successful when he maximizes the talent he has, not when he builds the best system for the talent he lacks. I want this team to succeed, if only because I think Mangini has the potential to be a free thinking innovator as a head coach (that ESPN Magazine article was good for his image), but considering they’re outgunned on paper, why not run something different, and maybe even scary out there, even if it means eating the price paid for a flawed tradition.
- That said, that Bucs WR Mike Williams’s catch, though fluky, was still the product of the kind of scary athleticism that daring teams take advantage of late in the draft. Get Carlton Mitchell going, and a similarly bright future could be yours, Browns.
- Michael Vick is the truth. Honestly, how do you NOT start him if you’re the Eagles, after he had you so close to beating the favorite to win the NFC championship? 16/24 for 175 yards and a TD through the air, and 11 carries for 103 yards on the ground means that there could be at least one more year of the combination of raw physical talent and deceiving passing that once made Vick the standard bearer for the future of NFL offenses. Better still, his ability to scramble creates opportunities for single coverage for a lightning quick, but undersized receiving corps to get time to break out of double coverage or take full advantage of single coverage mismatches (the Maclin TD was a good example of this). Meanwhile, Kolb looked lost, and not just because he might have been leaking brain fluid. All I’m saying is that Vick didn’t go to the Pro Bowl twice because of his image or his popularity; the man used to be an elite and unique quarterback.
- I told you so about Alex Barron. Look, all the offensive talent in the world means nothing if Tony Romo doesn’t get more time out of that line, and although the Redskins are a decent defense, they certainly aren’t elite like others he’ll face. Golden Pleasure Domes built on sand never work out well.
- Meanwhile, Washington seems awfully chipper for an offense that completed fewer than half its passes, couldn’t get any meaningful ground game going, and won thanks to a miscue out of a Pop Warner football game. They may gel before its all said and done (Moss seems to be benefiting nicely from the new offense), but so far, both teams from the Sunday Night game look a class below their peers in the NFC East.
- Chargers/Chiefs was a wash. Nothing to be learned about either team from that game given the weather and the impressive home crowd.
- The Jets started the season off by ripping my heart out through my stomach. 21 passes? On a night when EVERYBODY could have told you that the tide was turning against the Jets, who have positioned themselves to be the league’s villain this season, Schotty geared up an offense that threw just 21 times??? I understand protecting your quarterback, but that was gutless to the point of disgust. He’s a first round draft pick, not Trent Dilfer being told “hey, just don’t screw this up.” Against that secondary, there really is no excuse for Edwards getting just 4 targets, or Keller getting just 5. Five years into the Schotty experience, this guy has just proven that he’s good enough to make a poor offense decent, but has almost no ability to make a decent offense special, and this team has spent a lot of money to give him some special tools on offense. More heartbreaking than the loss (which, though bad, was as much the product of questionable officiating and minor miscues as it was overall execution) was the way the game plan seemed to gut Sanchez of the confidence he’d built up in the last offseason. Considering how hard last season was, and how he’d seemed to grow from it, wouldn’t it make sense to take a couple of shots down the field to let the league, and probably Sanchez himself know that the offense believes in his ability to run the team? What I saw Monday was pretty much the exact same team that snuck into the playoffs in 2009 at 9-7, and while it was a pleasant surprise last season, that would be a huge mark against both this front office and coaching staff.
Alright. We’ll be up with something else in the afternoon, and don’t forget to follow us on twitter at @titraffic.
Yeah, I had to hustle it up. That’s fine; predictive analysis is less fun anyway.
NFC South
North Carolina Panthers
You know what people keep forgetting? This team was shot to hell last year, with Jake Delhomme doing everything he could to kill the offense short of lining up on the other side of the field, one receiver who cared enough to get upset about it (Steve Smith straddles the line between sociopath and elite competitor as well as anybody in the NFL), and they still managed to break even at 8-8. Even if Matt Moore is the product of a lack of tape combined with physicality, they still have two solid prospects to groom behind him, and John Fox is the next Jeff Fisher (seriously, they went 8-8 last year, check again), so it’s hard to think that things can’t improve sooner rather than later. If they have the guts to build a gameplan around their most dynamic threats (Williams, Stewart, and Smith), this team could easily sneak in and get a lot of “sleeper” talk, when in reality they’ve been awake all along.
New Orleans Saints
Last year it was all about a collection of unique talents combining to create a synergy of offensive firepower. The result was an incomparable team attack that sublimated individual power for the benefit of the identity of the whole (driven largely by Drew Brees and his remarkable ability to distribute). This season, if the team hopes to catch the league by surprise again and prevent the dreaded “disease of more”, the team must begin to reveal the individuals beneath its banner. Different players will need to become the focal point at different times, instead of last season’s consistent focus on the team as a multifaceted weapon highlighting solely its mission (something that will be impossible to replicate with so many talents in their prime). If opponents are faced with the prospect of having to deal with a consistently shifting best punch, there’s no reason the Saints can’t add another title, this one more personal and less business.
Atlanta Falcons
But for a couple of injuries last year, this team was built to drag the Saints into the paced, metronomic hell they make of the field. A healed offensive line and Michael Turner, the return of Harry Douglas, and a healthy Peria Jerry (also STOP FORGETTING THAT CURTIS LOFTON IS LEGIT) mean that Matt Ryan gets to stop worrying about the scoreboard and exist in that state of calm in which he proved to be the rookie of the year. If the Saints were the celebration that couldn’t be stopped, this team is built to win as the solemn funeral party that won’t be made happy again, recognizing that you don’t beat the champ by doing what they do, but by creating your own, more powerful identity.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If the Raiders are my traditional sleeper this year, the Bucs are my mutant sleeper, meaning they could make a striking turnaround entirely the result of one year’s overhaul. The sub par receiving corps has been refreshed with two rookie wideouts, both of whom are physical specimens with big play capability (Mike Williams is going to embarrass some corners before he gets the respect he deserves). The porous defensive line is starting two rookies, both of whom are top of the draft picks, and one of whom (Gerald McCoy) has the potential to be every bit as dangerous as the more heralded Suh, only faster. Gone is overpriced RB platoon member Ward, guaranteeing touches to more explosive backs who will work the middle of the defense, forcing defenders inward and giving the aforementioned rookie WRs room to exploit their physicality in their first year of learning the tricks of the trade. Oh, and this secondary has a good chance to develop into a frightening blend of established experience and limitless potential all at once, if Aqib Talib doesn’t go supernova. Also, Josh Freeman shows flashes of Ben Roethlisberger (both the good Ben and the increasingly rare (on the field) bad Ben), minus the off the field garbage.
PREDICTION: Saints win the division, followed by the Falcons, Bucs, and Panthers
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
When Derek Anderson succeeded in Cleveland in 2007, everybody thought the team was in ruins, but with the help of an underrated running game, a top flight receiver, and a solid passing offense, Anderson overcame the obvious signs that he was a stop-gap quarterback for the year and his physical skills actually gained utility, allowing the team to exceed expectations. Replace “Cleveland” with “Arizona” and tell me this doesn’t sound really familiar. Remember “he just sucks” doesn’t qualify as a thoughtful argument. Maybe there's plenty of tape, but this certainly isn't an unrealistic scenario for improvement.
Seattle Seahawks
Sigh. I admire Pete Carroll’s confidence in his ability as a coach, particularly in the face of people thinking he’s doomed to fail simply because he was a winning coach at the collegiate level. Hell, I’m thrilled that he’s proving my “a coaches job is to allow talented, though sometimes difficult, individuals to reach their potential” credo with Mike Williams. And yes, it definitely pays dividends to allow the players you believe in to gain the experience that is necessary to master their system and see if they can become the part of your vision that you hope they’ll become. Still, giving up the present for the sake of some future that may never come is just another way of avoiding responsibility. Why is Seneca Wallace in Cleveland instead of getting the chance to function in a new, working offense (no, I will never let this go, thanks for asking)? Why is Housh in Baltimore instead of giving this team the chance to compete with a scary, massive receiving corps against an NFC West in transition? Look, I’ll take the good with the bad, but it’s frustrating when the steps back feel so...unnecessary, particularly if this regime is supposed to be the new perspective on coaching.
St. Louis Rams
Never forget: This team took boring Chris Long over freakish talent Glenn Dorsey (who is only not a star because of a 3-4 system), and just took Sam Bradford (who looks good) over Ndamukong Suh (who looks like a more athletically gifted Warren Sapp). Then remember the motto: Scared money don’t make none.
San Francisco 49ers
This is the rare can’t lose watchable team for me. If Alex Smith succeeds, then it’s the triumph of intelligence and talent over circumstance and the NFL “toe the line” coaching culture. If Alex Smith fails, Troy Smith comes in, and with these receivers emerges as the solid, athletically gifted, pro savvy quarterback that he’s shown flashes of being all along, and that he should have been but for that Sugar Bowl. If both fail? Well, if I’m THAT wrong about both of these players, I deserve to suffer for it. Also, this receiving corps, if it makes proper use of Ted Ginn, can and should kill on every level…which plays right into Alex Smith’s strengths. Yeah, a favorite that I can get behind with both Alex Smith and Troy Smith as potential quarterbacks. It’s a weird NFL season.
PREDICTION: 49ers win the division, followed by the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams. I think Seattle catches people off guard early in the year thanks to all the turnover, and thanks to Anderson being mediocre in Arizona.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
Kevin Kolb is not Donovan McNabb. That said, the hourglass that began running when the team drafted Kolb in 2007 had run out of sand. Getting those draft picks in exchange for McNabb is a forward looking move. Yes, the team will never know whether or not they could have won it all with McNabb and mature, talented receivers, but that’s life. I know, slap that motto on Eagles t-shirts.
NY Giants
Does anybody else think this team is in trouble this year? Eli Manning emerged as a passer last year, and is finally proving that he’s a talented enough quarterback to make stars out of receivers who would merely be good on other teams (sound like anybody else we might know?). That said, the run game is slowing down; Jacobs can’t be BRANDON JACOBS anymore, and whatever everyone else is seeing is Ahmad Bradshaw’s statistically average work as the number one back, I must be missing it. Teams are going to figure out how to sit down on Steve Smith, and unless one of the other receivers this team has drafted shows they can be explosive and punish single defenders (and I’m not sure anyone here can, unless Hakeem Nicks has a gear I haven’t seen), does anyone see him building on last season? Throw in a secondary that I just don’t believe in (Antrel Rolle was an awful, AWFUL signing), and this team looks a lot like a one and a half trick pony (a stout defensive front and a strong pass rush) without the set of second punches those sort of teams need to succeed in the NFL. Remember, the Giants trench warfare have won in 2007 without their massive, speedy receiver who could exploit mismatches resulting from opponents gearing up against the usual Giants offense. On a completely unrelated note: Vincent Jackson is still holding out. Seriously, I feel like I’m starting to sound like Rain Man.
Dallas Cowboys
I was trying to understand why I care so little about this team, and then I figured it out: If all of these aerial weapons have remained the same (a rookie Dez Bryant is about as useful as a Patrick Crayton), and the defense hasn’t changed, why would exchanging an average left tackle for a bad one (Flozell > Alex Barron) make me like this team more?
Washington Redskins
Pretty much the reverse of what I think about the Cowboys. Add a good quarterback, a top talent at left tackle, and continue the development of a receiving corps that has plenty of talent and hasn’t come close to peaking, and revamp a defense while still making use of your best player (resist the temptation to throw Haynesworth to the wind, and the world is yours, Shanny), and tell me how we can NOT expect this team to stun the competition. Plus, the happiest quarterback in the league is playing angry while he’s still got the talent to do so well.
PREDICTION: Redskins win the division, followed by the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants.
And with that, let’s get the season going already.
With not much time left until the season, and the Bar Exam having eaten my summer alive, we'll be going through Premature Evaluations division by division, explaining why each team is more interesting than you may think, and even picking the team we think will come out on top of each division. Today, we continue with the NFC North, where a little desperation changes everybody.
