Optimist/Pessimist: AFC North Draft Class

Pittsburgh Steelers:

OPTIMIST
How bad was the Steelers’ offensive line? So bad that they won the Super Bowl on the strength of their passing attack and a run game that was just as brutal as anything else in the league. Yeah, real bad. So it’s really not a huge surprise that the team opted to make their formidable 3-4 defense even better by taking a nasty DT in the first round. They still managed to pick up a guard in the third, and even added a speedy potential replacement for Nate Washington in WR Mike Wallace. By increasing the intensity in the trenches and slyly filling offseason holes, the Steelers put themselves in a position to once again be the team to beat next season.

PESSIMIST
How bad was the Steelers’ offensive line? So bad that if the Eagles had bothered to show up in the first half of the NFC Championship, Pittsburgh would have had to face for a second time a defensive unit that put up nine sacks and completely dominated their regular season matchup. Instead, they caught a break against a chippy but unimpressive Cardinals defense. The fact of the matter is that a quarterback can only take so many 250+ pound men crashing down on him before his physical gifts start to diminish rapidly, and for a QB like Big Ben, that could be the beginning of a rapid end for an offense that depends on his arm more than anyone admits.

Cleveland Browns:

OPTIMIST
I hate Eric Mangini, but the fact of the matter is that he helped put together some solid drafts in NewYork, and there’s no reason to doubt that he knew what he and GM George Kokinis were doing when they traded down for the sake of stockpiling draft picks. Considering how often NFL teams miss with big, splashy picks, his decision to avoid high salary selections in favor of a versatile offensive lineman and hording defensive rookies is, if not sexy, certainly prudent, and exactly the kind of stable leadership to get a team that was much more talented than last year’s debacle would indicate back on track.

PESSIMIST
There’s a reason I called the Browns trading away the #5 pick of the draft: Eric Mangini is the guy to get a team fighting in the middle of the pack, and nothing more. With options at much needed defensive positions, the cowardly lion of football coaches opted to let other teams make his decision for him not once, but twice. The payoff for all of this maneuvering? Two slow-footed wide receivers (if this team trades Braylon Edwards, I give up on a Browns resurgence) and some maybe/maybe-not defensive players. Fine, they got a center, but they’re likely going to move him to guard, and there were plenty of those to be found in this draft. Churning and churning doesn’t mean that a front office is doing a good job, just that they want to keep their job a little longer than their last one.

Baltimore Ravens:

OPTIMIST
It is stunning to me that OT Michael Oher lasted this long. How many teams have to go from the bottom to near the top in one season before teams realize exactly how important the position is to an offense? Every coach needs a copy of The Blind Side, a story of which Oher was the protagonist, by the way. Oher has the potential to develop into the next Jonathan Ogden, and considering talent that Joe Flacco showed behind an average line, the team has to be thrilled with that prospect. Oh, and any team that took my personal low round obsession RB Cedric Peerman was going to get high marks. The most physically impressive RB in the draft, Peerman fits perfectly into Cam Cameron’s offensive schemes thanks to his ability to catch passes and run between the tackles, and could work his way to the top of an already impressive platoon.

PESSIMIST
Man this is a boom/bust class. OLB Paul Kruger shows an admirable motor in pursuit of the ball, but needs to improve his physicality if he’s going to be effective. CB Lardarius Webb is a speedy ball hawk, but he needs to have top-notch vision and anticipation to make up for being undersized in a league that is becoming overrun with big bodies at WR. Peerman needs to develop at least some ability to get to the outside for yardage if his game is going to be what it should be. Even Oher needs to prove his ability to assimilate the complexities of a pro offense. Much like the Flacco pick, I admire the risk, but that’s a whole lot of “needs to” statements for one team’s draft haul.

Cincinnati Bengals:

OPTIMIST
There is no denying that despite an atrocious combine showing and an equally bad pro day, Andre Smith was far and away the most dominant offensive lineman in college football on the field. Last time I checked, that’s where the physical skills really matter. Smith drives players well off their mark and with coaching could become a devastating pass blocker given his quick reaction time. If the team is really committed to the Carson Palmer era, this was the right move. Furthermore, the addition of LB Rey Maualuga to a linebacking corps that already saw great improvement with Keith Rivers last year could give Marvin Lewis LB corps reminiscent of his days in Baltimore.

PESSIMST
You know how else he’ll remind Lewis of his Bodymore days? He’s already been arrested for misdemeanor battery. Oh, and calling Andre Smith’s workouts “atrocious” is like calling water boarding “inconvenient.” Smith looked like he should waddle his way from the combine to the set of “The Biggest Loser.” How on earth do the Bengals not get that although good chemistry alone is never going to win championships, bad chemistry can tear a team apart before the talent by which it’s justified emerges? We’ll all know the real deal when, halfway through the season, Chad Ochocinco makes Smith cry by making weight jokes on “PTI.”

Optimist/Pessimist: NFC North

Optimist/Pessimist takes a look at the bright and not so bright side of each team's draft haul, division by division. Today, the NFC North.

Detroit Lions:

OPTIMIST
We’ve been over this before: Identity as need revolves around getting great at what you do well, not becoming mediocre at what you don’t do well. To that end, TE Brandon Pettigrew, and to a lesser extent QB Matthew Stafford, represent a positive step toward a cohesive identity as a high power offense. The fact of the matter is that OT Gosder Cherilius needs time to develop at the position, so an early round OT didn’t make sense. At this point, everything needs to revolve around making Megatron more effective, and a QB with an undeniably great arm and a versatile TE who forces defenses to remain honest in the middle of the field take a lot of pressure off of the third year receiver. Meanwhile, the defense picked up players built to play the sort of grinding ball that Jim Schwartz mastered in Tennessee, with Louis Delmas looking like a smarter Roy Williams, and Sammie Lee Hill drawing comparisons to Cortland Finnegan. In a draft where everyone expected the Lions to fail, it’s hard to argue that they didn’t get better, maybe even a lot beter.

PESSIMIST
I mean, any time you have the chance to pay $41 million to a marginally successful quarterback and make him the richest rookie ever, you have to pull that trigger, right? I don’t know why any of us were wondering whether or not the Lions would make the easy, flashy, and ultimate foolish move of using the #1 overall pick on Matt Stafford; it was obvious from the beginning that everyone wanted them to make this move. Never mind that one of the most incredible physical talents at the LB position was available to make an already talented LB corps one of the most dangerous in the league. At the end of the day, identity is an important thing, but until this team addresses the glaring holes in their defense, they’ll be stuck in shootouts that they’ll lose more often than they win.

Minnesota Vikings:

OPTIMIST
First, before we get to the main event, don’t sleep on the selection of OT Phil Loadholt in the second round. A massive lineman, he can step in opposite Bryant McKinnie and give Adrian Peterson all the running room he’ll need to dominate again. That said, the focus has to be on WR Percy Harvin. The positives are obvious: Harvin is fast, elusive, can attack defenses from various points in the offense, and hits top speed quicker than any other skill player in the draft. In short, he is one of the scariest offensive weapons taken this year, if not the scariest.

PESSIMIST
“Scary” is a good word for a player who has demonstrated discipline issues and is too small to get away with the route running he’s shown up to this point. Yes, I know DeSean Jackson proved me wrong last year, but that was in Andy Reid’s pass wacky offense. Here, Harvin will need to either learn to work the middle of the field or be the next Steve Smith in order to find scoring opportunities in an offense built primarily around a run game. Oh, and unless Harvin is fast enough to throw the ball to himself, that quarterback situation might be a problem too.

Green Bay Packers:

OPTIMIST
Perhaps no team took steps toward reclaiming a lost identity more brazenly than Green Bay with the pickup of DT B.J. Raji and OLB Clay Mathews. Matthews the hard hitting speed that Green Bay has always valued in their LB corps, and should be able to contribute immediately. More importantly, Raji restores the defensive line to the stuff of QB nightmares, putting a massive body in the middle of a defense transitioning to the 3-4 and showing signs of being the new Kris Jenkins in terms of quickness. Anyone who watched Jenkins’s influence on the Jets defense should know that a strong NT makes all the difference in a 3-4 scheme. The monstrous defense that carried this team to the NFC Championship game in 2007 is officially back.

PESSIMIST
To say that I’m not sold on Ryan Grant as a starter at the RB position would be an understatement. In one year, Grant went from being a wonderful between the tackles threat to Ron Dayne. For all the talk of the defense losing steam, maybe last year really taught us that Grant never had any to begin with, and relying on a first year starter to anchor a one dimensional offense was a bad idea. The fact that the team saw fit to avoid drafting a much needed replacement is the sort of stubbornness that gets coaches whose teams fell from the sky after losing a beloved icon fired.

Chicago Bears:

OPTIMIST
Look, we all know I didn’t like the Cutler trade, but it’s hard to argue that the Bears didn’t get a lot better at a position of need with the move. Considering the haul they gave up for him, Cutler needs to be the focus of every move this team makes, and in drafting three wideouts, the Bears showed admirable commitment to finding the tools their new quarterback will need in order to succeed.

PESSIMIST
Two slow-footed pass catchers and a mediocre, undersized speedster does nothing to revive a pass attack whose best targets both play TE. Devin Hester belongs as a #2 receiver at best, and is unfortunately forced to fill the #1 spot for another year. If you’re wondering why Cutler’s getting hammered in public every night since the trade, it’s because the thought of chucking passes to this bunch will drive any man to drink. Hell, look at what it did to Kyle Orton.

2009 NFL Draft LIVE BLOG

7:32
The Steelers select Missouri DT Ziggy Hood with #32. I've got nothing that would extend beyond a lame name joke, so I think I'm done for the evening. Thanks to everyone for stopping by, and I heart you all. See you all next week when we start breaking down all of this madness.

7:28
That pick deserves an F for the Cardinals, but an A for JJ Arrington's job security.

7:24
Arizona drafts Ohio State RB Beanie Wells at #31. Wait, if you got Tim Hightower in the 5th last year, why get him in the 1st this year?

7:22
Arizona looks like they're set on solving that mediocre rush game problem with...oh, wait...never mind...

7:18
The Titans select Rutgers WR Kenny Britt at #30. Maybe if they'd done this a year ago, we wouldn't have had to take away Vince Young's belt and shoelaces.

7:14
Bwahaha. Apparently, ESPN says the big plus for Nicks was that "Eli didn't miss him". Aim high, former Super Bowl champs.

7:12
My friend Julian, who is a Giants fan: "Great hands, a little thick in the middle, but gives you what you want? Did we draft a WR or a rub and tug hooker?"

7:09
The Giants take UNC WR Hakeem Nicks at #29. Wait, he's not 7'10"? How will Eli hit him?!?

7:04
Bills take Louisville C Eric Wood at #28, who looks like a grown up version of the kid from Bad Santa.











7:00
The Colts take Connecticut RB Donald Brown at #27. Apparently, the only thing better than having ONE Mike Hart on the team...

6:59
Evan: "Hey, the Horse With No Name has an amazing vertical jump."

6:58
Apparently, the Colts drafted America at #27, judging from the armed forces being on stage. I hear that America can't run a sub 4.5 40, so that's a reach in round 1.

6:56
Clay Matthews and his entire family are apparently sponsored by Muscle Milk. With THAT kind of douchiness, how could the Pats pass him up?!?

6:55
The Packers make a deal with the devil and select USC OLB Clay Matthews with pick #26.

6:52
My friend just said, "I don't think Belichick would need to make some sneaky move to make a trade." I'm going to punch my friend in the face and then talk him into buying another punch in the face from me.

6:46
The Miami Dolphins take Illinois CB Vontae Davis at #25. Egg on the face of Darius Butler's dad, who said he was going here if he was still on the board.

6:41
The Atlanta Falcons take Ole Miss DT Peria Jerry at #24. I don't know the kid, but I'd imagine going from Ole Miss to Atlanta is a positive life change for a young black athlete.

6:39
Is Steve Young crying?

6:36
The Ravens select Ole Miss OT Michael Oher at #23. It's finny that they pretty much selected the new Jonathan Ogden to replace the old Jonathan Ogden.

6:34
Pats trade the pick to the Ravens. Ravens, we've been over how dealing with the great Satan is not OK.

6:32
Todd McShay on Percy Harvin: "He may win the race before he crashes the car." Comforting news to the fans that turned Koren Robinson into a drunk.

6:30
At least the Vikes now have someone who can hold his own on the upcoming Sex/Drug boat sequel.

6:28
The Vikings select Florida WR Percy Harvin at #22. I'd call this dumb, but that's not fair. Paying Bernard Berrian boatloads of money is dumb. This is deliberately bad for the team. Say hello to your Los Angeles Vikings in 2012.

6:25
Eric Mangini gets off the pot and the Browns enter the secret world of Cal C Alex Mack at #21.

6:22
At pick #20, the Lions take TE Brandon Pettigrew. Ok, brace yourselves, because I don't hate that pick. You've got Gosder Cherilius developing at LT, and if you draft a tackle in the first you're paying a RT the kind of money reserved for a LT. Meanwhile, in Pettigrew, you get a really good blocker, and also a potentially stunning pass catcher to work the oft neglected middle of the field and take pressure off of Megatron. In other words, you get much better at what you do well rather than a little better at what you do poorly. They'll get slaughtered for it, but the comittment to the rebuilding and youth-development effort is admirable.

6:16
According to Eric Mangini, the 6th round of this draft has an entire Pro Bowl roster.

6:13
With the Browns' pick, the Eagles take Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin at #19. Solid choice. I'm not sure there's a defense with the speed to deal with Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson, and Maclin on the same field.

6:11

No no, don't you see? You don't need these "players" to win. All you need is boatloads of money, my personally crafted brilliant schemes, and Abram Elam. Once I unveil my third down punt scheme, the league will bow to my greatness.

6:07
Broncos take Tennessee DE Robert Ayers at #18. How is Everette Brown still on the board? Is academic integrity measured at the combine?

6:04
Why is ESPN using Skype to present team reports? I feel like I'm watching a 1970's Kung Fu movie every time someone justifies why Denver didn't need to go defense.

6:00
The Bucs take Kansas State QB Josh Freeman at #17. What does a black QB have to do to get higher than a C+ from Mel Kiper?

5:58
CLEVELAND TRADES DOWN AGAIN! The Bucs have the pick! Wipe the pee off the pants Mangini and make a choice!

5:55

Isn't there anyone who will make it so I don't have to make a decision? Anybody? Please?

5:52
The Chargers take Northern Illinois OLB Larry English at #16. Nobody has given me a convincing reason why a great player would go to Northern Illinois. No, "Maybe he loves Northern Illinois" does not count.

5:51
Steve Young needs to think these long rants through, because it really takes away from his "I make pointing gestures to accentuate points when I talk" technique for him to go a full minute talking about nothing.

5:48
My friend Evan in response to Mel running through the top WRs remaining: "Forget in cleats, Percy Harvin couldn't hit 5'11" in high heels." Slow clap.

5:47
THERE IS A PLAYER NAMED ALEX MACK IN MEL'S TOP 10 REMAINING!!! NICKELODEON NEEDS TO GET CRACKING ON A REMAKE ASAP!!

5:45
Houston selects USC LB Brian Cushing with pick #15. That lady is really well built.

5:44
Brian Cushing has a 80's movie villain ponytail going. This is why I don't watch more USC football.

5:40
New Orleans takes Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins at #14. Jason David will never play in the NFL again. He'll wind up on the NFL equivalent of the Washington Generals.

5:36
Because you care, it's another pee break.

5:33
We're moving rapid fire, and the Redskins take Texas DE Brian Orakpo at #13. He looks surprisingly subdued, considering that Dan Snyder is about to pay him $40 google plex trillion and ownership of a small European country.

5:31
Denver selects Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno at #12. Well that's a surprise. Guess this clearly shows a break from Shanny's fantasy football killing platoon system.

5:26
Buffalo selects Penn State DE Aaron Maybin at #11. Another solid pick that I have nothing to say about. Now that Crabtree is gone, what will I piss and moan about?

5:24
No lie, they showed the same catch twice, and the other two catches in the Crabtree highlight reel were five yards or less. I'm not making this up, people.

5:19
San Francisco takes Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree at #10. That makes sense, because they'll be starting a jug machine at QB. Gotta be excited for that pick.

5:14
Green Bay selects BC DT B.J. Raji with pick #9. I like the move. That D-Line was a monstrosity when the team went to the NFC Championship, and Raji can get them there again.

5:10
B.J. Raji jumps up in celebration before Goodell announces his selection. Goodell is going to suspend him for 4 years and keep him on substance abuse probation as punishment.

5:07
Ugh. Mel's got his draft boner on for Michael Crabtree, and nobody is getting higher than a C until he gets picked. That pink starburst colored outfit is going to weep his way to ruining my draft day. Mel, NOT THAT MANY TEAMS NEED A WR. Maybe there's a team that feels like there Injured Reserve list isn't a full strength. That could be a good fit for Crabrtee.

5:05
The Jaguars select Virginia OT Eugene Monroe with pick #8. Monroe looks as psyched as a man doomed to a future in Jacksonville can look.

5:00
The TiT war room has broken into fighting over DHB over Crabtree. Let me explain something: One of them put up solid stats, and was easily the best receiver at the combine. The other is an injured diva who played in a pass happy offense and has refused to run since. There IS NO DEBATE. Oh, wait, he made that one good catch. The Raiders should have drafted that catch to the team.

4:56
The Raiders take Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey with the #7 pick. Michael Crabtree looks as sad as a man in that pink an outfit can look.

4:55
Not a single Cincinattica joke, ESPN? Disappointing.

4:50
Cincy takes Alabama OT Andre Smith with the #6 pick. I mean, any time you've got a team with glaring character flaws and you have the chance to pick the only player to show up to both the combine and his own pro day grotesquely out of shape, you have to make that move.

4:46
Wait, so you're telling me that we got Mark Sanchez AND got rid of Abram Elam, the slowest defensive back I have seen in my lifetime? Did Mangini write that deal down in a Hallmark card?

4:44
Bengals on the clock. Hide the silverware.

4:43
The utter lack of irony when these analysts say "The Jets are the only team in this division without a quarterback" is stunning. When will life stop slapping Handsome Chad in the face?

4:41
With the #5 pick, the Jets take USC QB Mark Sanchez. Awesome. I'm hearing how Sanchez's "personality will fit in in NY". Oh, wait, who's he throwing it to again?

4:39
J! E! T! S! trade into the five spot. I told you Mangini would punt. Welcome to NYC, Mr. Sanchez.

4:38
Can someone explain the ethnicity of the KFC CEO? Because that is a baffling accent.

4:36
Eric Mangini is on the board, and if there was a way to punt the pick away, I'm sure he'd do it.

4:33
The Seahawks take Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry with the #4 pick of the draft. My opinion is well known: This is the best pick of the top 10. In a conference that otherwise loathes defense, Seattle brings something special to their linebacker corps.

4:31
Seahawks are on the board, and I'm hearing a lot of talk about how Matt Hasselbeck is apparently the QB of the future. Welcome to 1989, people.

4:25
And the Chiefs take LSU DE Tyson Jackson with the #3 pick. I've never heard of him, and didn't see him this high, but considering that this is a Scott Pioli pick, Tyson Jackson is going to ruin your season, other AFC West fans.

4:21
WE'VE GOT HERM AT THE DRAFT?!?!? This draft just became my favorite ever. He just explained why not having a second round pick gives you MORE flexibility in the draft. Herm Edwards is Math's arch-nemesis.

4:20
Aaron Curry, who WILL be the best pick of the top five, is also the best dressed in the building. I love that there's still significance to that.

4:18
With the several minutes into this project pick of the draft, I select urinating while standing up. Back in a bit.

4:15
The Rams take Baylor OT Jason Smith with the #2 pick. Wow, I'm stunned that they didn't think it was a good idea to throw a quarterback behind an offensive line that killed every quarterback that stood behind it. At least, ESPN makes me think I should be.

4:12
If the Rams take Mark Sanchez at #2, I give up on trying to understand things. Do you want to turn Mark Sanchez into the next Marc Bulger, who is currently filled with bloody, soft, warm bread dough?

4:09
SPACEMAKER

4:08
Keyshawn, you're a disappointing number one pick. Tell us how THIS disappointing number one pick will do.

4:05
Roger Goodell kicks us off, and announces that the Detroit Lions take Georgia QB Matt Stafford with the #1 pick of the 209 NFL Draft. Equally unsurprising, Goodell has announced that any unruly minorities will be suspended from this and all other NFL activities, so easy with the booing.

4:03
I'm already disappointed in this day because Keyshawn's tie didn't create a flare burn in my TV screen.

3:58
Mort says that teams may trade for draft picks. This is the kind of in-depth analysis we pay him the big bucks for.

3:55
Failed comeback is over. LET'S DO THIS!!! Immediately faced with fat fetus headed Matt Stafford explaining why he'll be the mistaken pick to save the Lions. Delightful. The more things change...

3:45
I'm aware that this is a football blog, but this is a FANTASTIC NBA game I'm watching here between the Nuggets and the Hornets. I kind of wish this game would go overtime so we could skip Matt Stafford's obligatory walk on the stage. Or, as we've known it for several years, the Lions' obligatory screwup on draft day.

3:38
Hello and welcome to the second annual LIVE BLOG of the NFL Draft. I'm your host, Zac, and I'm coming to you live from Throwing Into Traffic Draft Central (read: Stolen University Internet and Cable) to give you pick by pick analysis. We'll be here throughout the first round, and probably into the second, so get ready for the good stuff. Keep refreshing, and as with most live blogs, it reads from the bottom up.

DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE LIVE BLOG TOMORROW!!!

Don't forget, tomorrow, starting at 3:30, we'll be running a LIVE BLOG of the first day of the NFL DRAFT. Last year was a hit, and this year promises to be even better!!!

What Dreams May Come 2009 – Cedric Peerman

In order to prepare for the NFL draft (and survive the unbearably long offseason), we've decided to check in on this year's draft class from time to time and discuss some of the potential future characters of the League that stand out for some reason or another. Today, Virginia RB Cedric Peerman.

beast of burden - rolling stones

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Once again, we'll be LIVE BLOGGING the NFL Draft this Saturday. Stay posted here for all the analysis and thoughts you could possibly want.

If Titans RB Chris Johnson was my unheralded obsession of 2008 (although I’m torn between him and Saints WR Adrian Arrington), then 2009 is all about Virginia RB Cedric Peerman.

Perhaps no pick this year represents the NFL’s strange relationship with physical measurements quite like Cedric Peerman. Despite all of the talk you’ve heard about this draft class being uniquely unimpressive at running back, Peerman has, when healthy (the ultimate red flag phrase to scouts), proven to be a versatile back who could carry a college offense. Furthermore, Peerman was the most physically impressive back at the combine, posting the fastest 40 yard time (4.45 seconds), the second highest vertical jump (40 inches), and the fourth best bench press total (27 reps). Granted, none of those numbers on their own provide the sort of jaw dropping flash that Chris Johnson or Darren McFadden did last year, but combined they provide the picture of a back who, thanks to a reputation for gaining punishing yards between the tackles, has all of the skills to accomplish the tasks asked of him. This is where the relationship of the draft and physicality comes into play; outliers act as the ultimate selling points, but full, rich pictures only make an unheralded player seem more unremarkable.

Fortunately for Peerman, there is a sea change in the NFL regarding running backs that could get him the attention he deserves and the success of which he is capable.

The stunning fall from grace of LaDainian Tomlinson, the less stunning fall of Willis McGahee, and the reliance of teams with the singular talents listed above on a system of several backs all shifted the focus of an offensive backfield last year away from the front man and onto the unit as a whole. Yes, Adrian Peterson is tremendous, but without Chester Taylor he wears down. Yes, Thomas Jones had a fantastic year, but Leon Washington made that offense what it needed to be, all by virtue of his ability to accomplish things that Jones could not. At 5’10” and 216 pounds, Peerman is built to handle a variety of tasks, and while he may not be able to convince NFL coaches of his ability to carry an offense, he may no longer have to do so. Instead, all he needs to prove is that his obvious physical talents translate to a similarly complete picture of an NFL back.

The consequences of this would be dramatic for the way we conceive of NFL running back corps. Rather than viewing these units as made up of broken individuals serving to form a complete whole, we could start seeing discrete, yet fully formed works stacked on top of one another, giving layered depth to the whole rather than a broad, expansive single layer (Peterson and Taylor are as close as I can find to this in the league, although Miami has started to do it as well). Granted, it’s fun to think about the idea of what Leon Washington can hit you with as opposed to Thomas Jones, but imagine a backfield in which, after a punishing run up the middle by Larry Johnson, Cedric Peerman steps onto the field, leaving defenses no easy decisions as to what they can expect. Granted, it’s not as sexy in terms of potential, but it’s perhaps more dangerous in terms of creating an offense that can eat up yardage and clock time, eventually opening up the field by wearing the defense down physically and mentally.

That’s perhaps the strangest thing about Peerman as a draft pick. On the one hand, he represents the kind of unconventional selection that coaches loathe. What discrete piece of “the puzzle” is he? On the other hand, Peerman represents perhaps the simplest step toward creating that age-old ideal of “hard nosed” football that coaches have been worshipping since the game was invented. It’s that combination of revolution within the boundaries of the system that represents true subversion, and makes Peerman my favorite running back on the board.

Divides That Conquer

A quick thought problem for today, while I grease up the gears for a week of draft thoughts, but it’s related if only because it’s an issue that will involve draft picks if it sees resolution. In what is a rarity in a league geared against stars changing teams, we currently have a clear title contender that is one piece away (the Giants, who need a WR) met with two bright options to fill that need on the trading block. Behind door one is Anquan Boldin, who, though having been a good soldier throughout the Cardinals’ astounding trip to the Super Bowl, has made it clear that he’s not happy with the status quo in Arizona. Behind door two is Braylon Edwards, who unquestionably made the superstar leap in year three only to once again raise doubts as to just how good he is in year four. Assuming that the team will make a move on one of these two (and it should, seeing as both are proven commodities), the question remains which one will prove the best investment. The philosophical questions posed by either choice are as good a reflection of old school versus new school football thought as you’ll find. This isn’t a commentary on one being clearly better; rather, it’s acknowledging the different roles that these men will have played as they enter a hypothetical role as the center of the NY Giants passing attack.

In the case of Boldin, you have the old school ideal of quiet, consistent performance for a successful team. Furthermore, there is no questioning Boldin’s toughness, as his return from a potentially devastating injury was heroic. Boldin combines good speed with underrated size and a willingness to make the ugly catches that most wideouts avoid like the plague. In short, he does what he’s asked on the field. Still, there have to be some nagging doubts about a man whose entire career has been flanked by that of the best receiver in football, Larry Fitzgerald. This may be unfair, but Boldin has, up to this point, been the single best number two receiver in football and nothing more. Placing an entire offense on him, while representing the sort of “paid your dues” logic that teams love, would represent a dramatic shift in roles for a receiver that has been surrounded by safe, supportive pieces up to this point.

The total reversal of this situation with Edwards makes the comparison interesting. Edwards has been a polarizing, often abrasive figure for his entire stay in Cleveland. His meteoric rise to greatness in year three was only matched by his fall to mediocrity in year four, and a reputation for having stone hands is becoming less of an assumption with every bad game. Still, no matter what else can be said, Edwards has always, undoubtedly been the focus of a Cleveland offense that made magic with a now obviously mediocre starter under center. The responsibility for the success of the unit fell on Edwards, and it is impossible to say that he failed to meet expectations last year without also acknowledging that he was more responsible than anyone for the stunning success of two years ago. Also, having spent an entire career with journeymen and throwaways under center, and with only an even worse malcontent as the second receiving option, Edwards has not had the support system that Boldin has enjoyed.

Where Boldin represents questions of prime time readiness surrounding unquestionable talent, Edwards represents questions regarding the ability for proven talent to emerge and perform at a level that we already know he can reach. To say that one is any more certain to succeed with a new offense than the other is to ignore one half of the expectations/ability equation. As has become an annoying and recurring theme of this offseason, I’m not sure I have any answers either. Maybe that’s why Giants GM Jerry Reese is making this a cost issue. The divide between old and new school is easier to deal with if you don’t have to cross it.

In Search of Self

Your Love Keeps Lifting Me Higher And Higher - Jackie Wilson

I continue to find myself straining for content, in these slow weeks before the draft, yet I stumbled across this little gem from the Colts webpage. It discusses the drafting of Reggie Wayne, and how the decision to avoid need in favor of talent worked out in the Colts’ favor. Obviously, the piece is in many ways a puff piece describing how great Scott Polian (which he is) and using hindsight to justify decisions that were justifiably questionable at the time, but it does raise an interesting question as we approach the draft: Where do need and talent intersect, and to which guideline should teams look as they seek to improve?

Reggie Wayne is actually an excellent example of why determining the answer to this question can be the difference between a draft pick which is “smart” or “good” and one that is great. At the time, Marvin Harrison was still clicking on all cylinders, and another top tier wideout seemed like excess in the face of a mediocre defense. Still, according to Polian, the talent of Wayne was simply too much to pass up, even in the face of overwhelming need. This obviously opens the discussion as to whether or not undeniable talent, regardless of position, is ALWAYS a need. In the case of the Colts, while drafting a defender for need could have made a mediocre defense better, drafting a top tier receiver to a very good offense made the offense borderline unstoppable. How is the latter not better than the former? In a league already built on parity, why should teams necessarily strive to aim for a happy medium? Isn’t creating an imbalance in one’s favor (even if it leaves certain holes) the best way to separate from the pack?

Pause. Consider the Lions, the perfect “on the other hand” to the happy ending of Reggie Wayne and the Colts. Four wide receivers deep, this team is still struggling to find respectability. Even when the team had two great wideouts, they couldn’t win; why should we assume that another very good offensive player would overcome the problem? Indeed, there, a lack of talent wasn’t the problem, but instead a lack of talent in particular places. In this case, need must win the day.

Still, we’re dealing with infected wounds in that situation, not scrapes and scratches, as with the Colts. So where do we draw the line? I know this post is filled with more questions than usual, but that’s probably because I honestly don’t have an answer (this is what happens when you force your offseason on me, NFL!!!). I guess I’d like to think that this is where identity comes into play. While maintaining certain baseline qualities should always be kept in mind, teams should always have an idea of exactly who they want to be on the field, and drafting talents that fit this formula are thereby justified, even when they fail to fill a place where the team COULD be better. To return to the Lions, this is the reason why I continue to support the drafting of Calvin Johnson. True, the team had needs (HUGE needs), but drafting Johnson was a declaration that they believed they could advance their identity to the point where it would more than overcome their failings; it would overcome the strengths of others as well. It didn’t work (letting Jon Kitna run that show was idiotic), but it was the right idea executed poorly (drafting Stanton in the second round of that draft shot themselves right in the foot).

Put simply, maybe talent advancing identity is a “need” just as much as anything else. Otherwise, you wind up with the Chiefs or the Panthers. Yuck.

The value of money now.

Over at Fuhbaw, Cian nails exactly what I've always said about top tier receivers. Glad to see we're back on the same page.

What Dreams May Come 2009 - Darrius Heyward-Bey

In order to prepare for the NFL draft (and survive the unbearably long offseason), we've decided to check in on this year's draft class from time to time and discuss some of the potential future characters of the League that stand out for some reason or another. Today, Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey.



It should come as no surprise that Darrius Heyward-Bey is on our list of exciting draft prospects. After all, I’ve been saying that big receivers are where the fun is at from day one, and Bey’s 6’2” frame combined with his lanky wingspan certainly qualifies him for membership in that category. Watching Heyward-Bey work, however, one notices that there is a unique property to his game that makes his length a skill that is distinct from his size. This is not just a matter of his being tall but not bulky. Instead, Heyward-Bey’s (I’m going with DHB until we get a better nickname) play exists in a state of constant extension, in direct contrast to the typical WR game built on explosion from a state of contraction. It’s like starting at the end of the movie and looping it at the climax, and it could either be the thing that ends his career very early or the thing that makes him a star.

The comparison here is Braylon Edwards, or at least Braylon Edwards at his best. Remember, at his best, Braylon Edwards knew how to extend himself and use his length to bring in passes that other receivers let sail. At his worst, Edwards tries to use his size to force defenders away, relying on average hands in narrow space he is fortunately able to create. DHB lives in extension. Even on screens and reverses, he runs with his full length at his disposal, leaning into his paths at dangerous tilts. It makes for beautiful physics, with his center of gravity seemingly pushed by his incredible speed (his 4.3 was the fastest of the 40 times for receivers) and pulled by a torso leaning ahead at full momentum.



Receivers simply don’t do this. Common sense dictates that extension creates vulnerability, and vulnerability in the places and situations where receivers find themselves on the field leads to drastically shortened careers. This may be the case; however, DHB’s style is dictated by his willingness to live with that danger and use the fullness of forces in motion around his body. In midair, he arrives at the ball faster than anyone around him by virtue of his already being at the peak of his reach, making his height even more apparent than it would be otherwise. On the ground, defenders struggle to gain a solid grasp on a target that, rather than being to small to hit, is instead to vast and twisting to control upon being grabbed. It’s like watching a shark in his natural environment, a killing machine made terrifying because of its combination of agility, size, strength, and speed. DHB may not be the most physically gifted player in the draft, but I’m hard pressed to find a more unique physicality (in terms of both material and execution) in this class.

Of course, as with most sharks, one good spear could turn DHB into another hanging fish on some zealous defender’s dock. As we’ve discussed, that kind of extension is rare for a reason. NFL safeties are notorious for using fear as their greatest tactic for stunting receivers in the air and after the catch; just look at what they did to Santana Moss. If he commits, however, DHB could remind some of the game’s great receivers that there is more than one dimension to size, and that length combined with speed is the most elusive combination on the field. The thought of this man swimming through defenses en route to hitting his obvious second-gear speed is worth his fans cringing at a tackle or two.

Mom and dad aren't splitting up, kids.

As I work out another "What Dreams May Come" about my favorite receiver in the draft, I encourage you to go read Cian as he once again disagrees with me (if this gets to be a "thing", I may cry), this time about "Patriots West". Meanwhile, I'll just fish this knife out of my back...

Roman meritocracy at the gates

Blue Ocean Blue - LAKE

One of the things that stands out from this offseason is the strange mix of dread and excitement resulting from the emergence of Patriots West, courtesy of the arrivals of Scott Pioli and Josh McDaniels in what was once the worst division in the AFC. Dread because at its worst, the Patriots mentality is all about crushing personalities out of some perceived need to do so for the sake of the team. Mark my words, if McDaniels turns Marshall and Royal into Gaffney and Caldwell, this will be one of the worst things that could have ever happened. Furthermore, the rumored impending ejection of Tony Scheffler reeks of the “system above talent” thought process that is exactly the wrong interpretation of what made the Pats dynasty work (yes, the system is important, but ONLY in how it adapts to the talents contained).

Still, you couldn’t have picked two better teams to experiment on. In the case of the Chiefs, I’m not even worried about the loss of personality, largely because this has been a team defined by the absence of personality, except they don’t win, so instead of “no nonsense” they’re just boring. Enter Scott Pioli, who apparently pulled off the heist of the century by getting a talented QB and plugging him into an offensive system that runs a spread style similar to what he succeeded with in New England. Dwayne Bowe is handwriting Robert Kraft a thank you note. Tony Gonzalez has stopped starting every morning with a game of Russian Roulette. Hell, Larry Johnson even smiled a little, I bet. Point is that for the Chiefs, Patriots West is excitement for the simple fact that it is SOMETHING. Hell, America needs to know more about all three of the players mentioned above, and if importing a rigid code and system is the means to that end (and NOT the end itself), well, good.

For the Broncos, however, this is all much more interesting. I already mentioned my fear for Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall, who run the risk of being seen as cogs in a machine and not unique, underrated talents. I’ve also gone on record as saying that the move to deal Cutler was the kind of soulless move whose goal was comfort over creativity. Boo to that. With everything said and done, the smoke has cleared with Kyle Orton as the apparent starter for what was once the most dynamic non-Pats passing offense in the AFC. Norv Turner is shaking in his boots, I’m sure.

But maybe there’s some significance to the fact that this offense, as good as it was, was still no Patriots offense. True, the idea of submitting the unique talents of the Broncos personnel to a rigid code seems counter-productive, particularly when that system ejects the most potent weapon the team has; however, we’re forgetting that McDaniels isn’t just importing a system he learned. We’re dealing with the mad scientist himself. Throw away the Oakland Raiders (why the league hasn’t done this already, I’ll never know), and the Broncos were clearly the least “scary” team in the division by virtue of Cassel’s entrance onto a young and hungry Chiefs squad (DO NOT FORGET ABOUT GLENN DORSEY). For better or for worse, this move combined with McDaniels arrival and a couple of first round picks in a draft loaded with defensive firepower give the Broncos the chance to bare some ferocious teeth in 2009. McDaniels is no idiot; maybe instead of seeing his skill players, including Orton, as unimportant, he sees his system as the tool by which they unlock some talent we didn’t even know was there.

So for what it’s worth, I’m ready for Patriots West, if only because it makes the AFC West that much more interesting. Watching the unapologetic flash of the Chargers fight off the invading hordes of efficiency and fungible skill positions will make for compelling divisional football. And hey, we’ve even got comic relief coming out of Crazy Al and the Raiders. It’s the whole gamut of entertainment in one division. Sign me up.

The straight lines that desperation draws

While I process the other end of this thing, meander over to Fuhbaw, where Cian is handling the sea change in the NFC North well. Yeah. We'll see how that goes after the first game between the Packers and the Bears.

The man behind the curtain

It's my fault. I jinxed it. Egg on my face.

Wanderlust

After trying to make sense of why a franchise that is hoping to grow gives up on a young franchise quarterback who has already shown growth on his considerable talent before they give up on an unproven (if perhaps brilliant) young coach, I've given up. Allow my mind to meander through what seem to be the leading possible new homes for Cutler, and how these locales affect the narrative of the league.


Browns

Sure, Derek Anderson’s accuracy has come into question. Sure, Brady Quinn has started only three games for the Browns. But let’s not mince words: Eric Mangini is a coward. I watched enough 4th and short punts from the 50-yard line to know this, balls to bones. That, and nothing else, is the reason why Mangini desperately wants to bring Jay Cutler to Cleveland. Every single Cleveland fan should be terrified of what this means. For starters, you’re bringing a player from a high-powered vertical offense to a team with just one downfield threat now that Kellen Winslow is gone and expecting him to maintain his performance. Second of all, that downfield threat is notoriously tempermental and inconsistent…just like the quarterback you just brought in.

Even more importantly, you’re giving up on a great story before it has even begun. In Quinn (who would have to be the one shipped off), the Browns have an untested quarterback who has shown potential at every opportunity and who wants to play in Cleveland. This team has been a part of his narrative, and now he wants a chance to be a part of its own. Cutler, on the other hand, has already pouted his way out of one bad situation. At least if Winslow had stayed you’d have created a great villain passing trinity; as it stands, this would just feel like mismatched puzzle pieces hammered together.


Redskins

I honestly don’t know what to make of the fact that the Redskins are shaping up to be the number one contender to get Cutler. On the one hand, I’ve made no bones about the fact that I believe in Jason Campbell. In his first year under his seventh offensive system in seven years, he did an alright job. In fact, up until a confidence shattering meltdown against the Rams, Campbell looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has the size, arm strength, and experience to succeed in Zorn’s pass heavy system.

But with Cutler at the helm, the arsenal of receivers in Washington gets a new flight level clearance. It’s the difference between a swarm and a squadron; Campbell knows how to work effectively up to a point, but Cutler can attack at every level right now. If you think that Devin Thomas and either Malcom Kelly or Fred Davis will eventually turn the corner, how can you not want to see a proven vertical QB run a system with five vertical receiving targets? True, it relocates Campbell, this time both mentally AND physically, yet again, but there are enough places where his athleticism and control of the football are needed for this to be a satisfying move. Maybe The Behemoth just needs to find a place where he can exist outside of the defining prison of a coach-driven system.


Jets

For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the Broncos would ever do this. The Jets have nothing to give them in return, let alone a top tier quarterback who is a safe bet to run a team. Furthermore, this would be a waste. The Jets have exactly one downfield threat, and he’s a tight end. Watching Cutler squander the youth of his gifts in a city that crushes diminished returns on high risk investments would be torture for anyone who believes in him. The Prodigal Son was never does well in the big city.


Lions

The prospect of the great unknown that is a first overall pick in exchange for the unhappy, if very good known that is Cutler is intriguing, particularly with several defenders on the board who could immediately turn the Broncos defense around. For Cutler, however, so much depends on the dream of the greatest front office pariah in all of sports: Matt Millen. If Kevin Smith can continue to improve, then Jay Cutler and Calvin Johnson were born to play together. I recently read the work of theologian Tim Keller, who described the trinity as existing in a beautiful, mutually glorifying dance. I imagine that the process of Cutler and Megatron continually unlocking one anothers’ talents could be like that.


Bears

Until this team stops parading a defensive back as a top flight receiver (and I believe in the Hester experiment, but not to produce a number one target), this place is where quarterbacks go to die. Pass.


49ers

Considering that the new regime has declared itself to be that most boring and clichéd of offensive specimens, the “hard-nosed offense” (translation: unimaginative), going so far as to fire a creative aerial offensive coordinator who would have been perfect for Cutler, I’m not sure that this would be a good match. Still, Singletary did show us all something when he managed to do what Mike Nolan never could and made Vernon Davis productive. With a speedy receiver across the field from a wily Isaac Bruce, this could be the interesting meshing of two styles that I had hoped would come from Singletary and Martz.


Seahawks

Seneca Wallace is one of our little pet causes around here (FREE SENECA WALLACE! [FREE TROY SMITH!]), but I’m very, very intrigued by what could come of this pairing. Quietly, the Seahawks have put together something of a virtuous yeoman farmer’s version of the triangle offense (Housh + Carlson + Branch). With old man Hassy, the range of that triangle is limited to the point of impotence, but with Cutler, you have to wonder whether or not the field is finally extended to allow Seattle’s B-List all-stars to catch defenses by surprise. Not saying that this is ideal, but the idea of Cutler turning Housh into the marquee franchise player he deserved to be in Cincy is cool. But if they throw so much as one pass to Seneca Wallace, I’m turning on this one.


Eagles

I know, I know, Andy + Donovan = 4Ever (/tree carving). Here’s the thing: Don’t you think Reid dreams of what could be with an even greater arm? At this point, McNabb’s pretty much a pocket quarterback, and in Cutler, Reid could keep his mad scientist pass attack and give it even greater downfield potency (and I still think McNabb’s arm is great). Philadelphia, Andy Reid, and Donovan McNabb have all played this prisoner’s dilemma too long; it’s time to open the cages and let McNabb go.

Even better would be that McNabb, on the cusp of his second act (physical gifts THEN experience compensating for decline THEN experience not being enough), would be the perfect quarterback for McDaniels in Denver. McNabb wants a ring so bad he would certainly devote himself to learning a new system, particularly one that is familiar in its vertical complexity. McDaniels, in return, would get a quarterback who brings the sort of calm that only age can provide, combined with an arm that, if a step behind Cutler in power, is miles ahead in consistency (WHEN HEALTHY, Philly lunatics…don’t bite). The freeing aspects of this make it seem like the happiest ending of all. Throw in that both QBs switch conferences, and we don’t even need to worry about an awkward return in year one. Sounds ideal to me…