Premature Evaluations 2009: Cleveland Browns

You can't eat dreams, I suppose. Still, there's something sad about Eric Mangini, one of my least favorite coaches thanks to his rigid approach to defensive schemes and a knack for avoiding big risks regardless of the context, taking over a team with the potential for greatness. Make no mistake about it: 2007 proved that the Browns had all the tools for an elite offense, one that attacked on all three levels. That dream is now dead. Certainly, some could argue it died last year (although personally I blame the stubborn refusal to put Quinn in earlier), but once Mangini came to town, you knew that at least one of the infamous trio of Braylon, Kellen, and Jamal would leave town. Oh, and color me completely unsurprised that the short straw went to Kellen Winslow, the most outspoken (never mind that he was also the most useful and generally the most reliable) of the three. That's the Mangini way; you come in with a lot of hype, make one big, splashy change, and then everyone smiles and talks about how it's a new era for their team.

Except addition by subtraction is almost always just subtraction with a good PR campaign. Winslow was the second leading receiver in both catches and yardage despite missing seven games and dealing with health issues all year. Can anyone make a case for why losing that kind of talent is a good thing? Couldn't Brady Quinn, in what will likely be his first year as a starter, use a reliable intermediate target? Yes, he thinks he's the greatest player to ever play on the field; so does every other elite receiver that doesn't play for the Colts in the league. Here's a problem that the Browns might want to deal with instead of the attitude issue that isn't an issue: Who's going to do the dirty work on offense with Winslow out of town? Jamal Lewis is pushing 30, has never been a pass catching back, and got to 1000 yards because if you carry the ball 1000 times that is what happens. Braylon Edwards has the yips, plain and simple. United with Winslow, these two were part of something bigger, an offensive machine that, with competent passing under center, was bigger than the sum of its parts by virtue of its ability to attack on all three levels. Now? Who's catching the ball over the middle? Who's the other target in the red zone? Hell, who is going to be Brady Quinn's clear favorite target? I appreciate peace and quiet as much as the next guy, Eric Mangini, but you don't get wins for being the tightest ship; you get wins because your guys function better than the other guys. Say whatever else you want to, but Winslow was all about proving he was better than whoever was lined up against him.

For the Browns, this means that we're left with now is a team that will undoubtedly tout the value of a system without any of the talent that makes teams worth watching (both because they are interesting and because they win). The early rumors that Mangini was considering bypassing Quinn completely in favor of his NY pet project Brett Ratliff were nothing unexpected to anyone who watched the man gut the Jets for the sake of creating harmony under his vision for the team; aesthetic cohesion becoming an end in and of itself is the mark of any regime with underlying uncertainty. In the end, it's hard to predict anything but mediocrity for the Browns in the near future. Yes, the team will certainly do better than it was last year, but that's because any cohesive system is better than the anarchy that Romeo Crennel inspired. What's important is that improvement is not the same as justification, particularly for a team that stood on the verge of finally seeing its talent match its execution just two seasons ago. Even assuming Edwards and Lewis put together solid seasons, this is a 9-7 team at best, and while some may be satisfied with that, I'm going to continue to dream about what could have been if everyone had held onto their dreams just a little bit longer. Eric Mangini is a fine game manager, and he won't lose games with bad decisions, but he's not going to take anybody to the next level, and in that division, being dignified is a fun way to wind up with a third place finish, tops.

Hooray for progress.

Premature Evaluations 2009 - Kansas City Chiefs

For all of the attention given to Josh McDaniels's arrival in Denver, perhaps we're all missing on the true establishment of the Patriots West movement because, as they say, real bad boys move in silence and violence. For the Kansas City Chiefs, silence is certainly nothing new. Nothing interesting has happened in Kansas City since LJ was a shiny new toy that Herm Edwards had not yet broken. This is different, though. That silence was an end product, the result of a lack of innovation or talent. This silence feels more like a system in and of itself, not a boring office job but life at the KGB. You can thank Comrade Pioli for the new attitude. For the most part, Belichick's disciples have sought to imitate the least important aspects of his persona, choosing his system over his ability to create systems that match talent. Judging from his moves this offseason, Pioli gets it. The swagger isn't the result of some formula; it's what allows the formula to be created.

Not that Pioli is the only new arrival on this team to have some juice to throw around. Todd Haley is fresh off of turning a team with a so-so defense and no running game into a conference champion . Matt Cassel, meanwhile, evolved faster than any first time starter in recent memory, leading the Pats to an 11-5 record and showing flashes of the same smug resentment that turned Tom Brady into TOM BRADY. If this isn't a match made in heaven, I'm not sure what is. Haley created a spread offense second only to the 2007 Patriots, and his current team has the kind of underrated receiving talent that the Pats used to win championships with (Bobby Engram is perpetually underrated, and Dwayne Bowe only gets overlooked because he entered the league with Megatron). Sure, Denver may have gotten the man who created the system, but Haley is the next best thing, and potentially better thanks to the constant lack of any sort of running game.

The defense is equally intriguing. True, it's a bit of a mish mash of personnel, with DT Glenn Dorsey not built for a 3-4 system and rookie Tyson Jackson seems built to pass rush in the 3-4, but judging from Pioli's track record (and picking up vets like Zach Thomas and former Patriot Mike Vrabel are nothing if not a throwback to the glory days) the new GM has a knack for constructing systems to make the most of freakish, if mismatched talents. Dorsey, touted as the best player in last year's draft, is nothing if not freakish, and the possibility of a defensive attack showing varied looks with this mix of savvy and sheer athletic ability could make for one of the most interesting defenses in the league for sheer novelty.

And yet with all of the changes, this season will be won or lost with a look to the Chiefs past. At the center of this team's hopes for this season is Larry Johnson, still crazy after all these years. For all the evidence to the contrary, there's no denying that Johnson has proven he can be the kind of elite back that Pioli, Haley, and Cassel have never really worked with. In 2005, he rushed for 1750 yards on a stunning 5.2 yards per carry. In 2006, he rushed for 1789 yards and broke the record for rush attempts in a season, consequently ruining himself for the next year. But despite what you've heard, Johnson isn't gone past the point of redemption; he still managed a healthy 4.2 yards per carry when healthy last season with no credible passing game thanks to the QB shuffle of mediocrity Herm Edwards utilized. The new kids in town are great, but for the Chiefs to be anything other than a rebuilding project this year, they need to make sure that in

Premature Evaluations 2009 - St. Louis Rams

Let There Be Light (album version) - JUSTICE

For a minute, it really looked like he should give up on NFL football. After all. the arena leagues seemed built for a player that combined athleticism with a knack for quick work under center. Besides, nobody was taking a chance on a wandering outcast. It had been years since he’d gotten so much as a sniff of life under center in the pros. Maybe the people at Home Depot were right; maybe it was time to give up on struggling for stardom and embrace settling into a hyper talented blandness. Except nobody, not even his strongest doubters, could shake that nagging talent. It was there, in every quick release, in ever gutsy play brought back from almost certain failure. He had the gift, plain and simple. So when the Rams finally took a chance on him, and everyone doubted it, secretly both team and player knew; this was what he was born to do. And he did it. Play by play, he turned a lifeless team embodying a lifeless city into a fireworks display that America could not take its eyes off of. It was beautiful, and all the more so because nobody would have believed it if they hadn’t seen an outcast wander into town and change everything.

I’m talking, of course, about Kurt Warner’s history in St. Louis. Kudos to you for getting it. I’m also talking about why Michael Vick needs to be in a St. Louis Rams uniform next year. Shame on you for missing it.

Face facts, St. Louis residents, Marc Bulger robbed you all blind. The man is terrible at making decisions under pressure, which was all he saw once LT Orlando Pace officially started to break down last season. The result was an endless montage of watching Marc Bulger die at the hands of big, angry pass rushers. Meanwhile, while we were all watching Marc Bulger's snuff film, what went almost unnoticed is just how talented the Rams are on offense.

I'm not even talking about "man, just wait until they get there" talent; I'm talking about ready to roll, hitting their strides firepower. WR Donnie Avery, who I said looked like the next Steve Smith, did nothing to prove me wrong, throwing up ridiculous numbers for both receptions and yardage for a receiver of his size. Across the field and toiling in obscurity are the veteran Dane Looker and the promising young gun Keenan Burton, with the latter showing consistency down the stretch and hinting that the Rams may have a potent one-two punch in the passing game for years to come. Oh, and then there's RB Steven Jackson, who should be in the conversation of most versatile feature backs in the league and yet somehow gets a rep for being soft. Dude put up over 1400 total yards in an injury shortened season where he STILL managed to have the 11th most rushing attempts in the league. But yeah, he should probably decorate cakes or something.

And all of this is useless in the hands of Marc Bulger. The man makes an excellent still photograph of a quarterback, but that's about it, and if this isn't an offense built for a dynamic, versatile threat under center, then there is no offense built that way and Brian Brohm should start for every NFL team. Michael Vick, on the other hand, adds a third head to this beast. All of a sudden, Jackson's ability to catch out of the backfield turns him into a potentially deadly dump off target when pockets collapse. Think Avery and Burton couldn't wreak havoc on defenses suddenly forced to stay home for fear of Michael Vick torching them for a first down? Yeah, I know the man killed dogs, but this is St. Louis, where the cameras haven't been looking since Kurt Warner left the building; nobody will care after about two weeks…unless, of course, Vick does what he's already shown he can do and turns an otherwise directionless offense into a constant scoring threat.

I haven't even talked about the defense, but any front line with Chris Long, Adam Carriker, and Leonard Little could get the job done if only they didn't have to be on the field after every four offensive downs. The point is that last year, in a division that was widely agreed to be the most boring in football, the division champ wound up in the Super Bowl thanks to offensive flash and the same puncher's chance that everybody gets in the playoffs. This Rams team has the potential to be better…MUCH better. If there's any place better suited for Michael Vick, once the most popular and fun to watch player in football to make a reentry into the mainstream, it's on this team, where the quiet has kept all the tools he needs to succeed hidden for far too long.

Premature Evaluations 2009 - Detroit Lions

This year, we're traveling from the bottom to the top, checking out each team's prospects, stories, and roles in the greater story of the league along the way.

Sisyphus has nothing on Calvin Johnson. Megatron, as he's better known to those who mourned him last season, was the league's fifth most productive receiver in terms of total yardage. Dude had 1331 yards, not to mention tying for a league best 12 touchdowns. Oh, and he put all that up catching passes from Fat Daunte, Drew Stanton, Dan Orlovsky, and Jon Kitna. Adjusting for that, the man should have had enough yardage to circle the globe at least once. Every play, the attention of the opposition rested squarely on Johnson's shoulders, and time after time Johnson, rather than acting as a decoy for an offense with nobody capable of capitalizing on such a plan, relied on his talents to overcome the very defensive schemes created to make them irrelevant. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald, there may not be a more thrilling player to watch than Megatron, if only because he is the rare skill player that can create plays entirely on his own.

And yet 0-16 still happened. As undeniably as last year was Johnson's breakout year as an elite receiver, it was also the nadir of the Detroit Lions as an organization. The Lions were within ten points of their opposition in fewer than half of their games. Roy Williams, for years having been the good soldier, practically wept with joy when he became a Dallas Cowboy. In fact, one can point to the beginning of the Lions' slide into despair in 2007 as the point when Megatron really emerged as a dominant player. The better Johnson has played, the worse the team has become. It's like Godzilla; he only comes out when the radiation is at its most toxic. The question, then, is whether or not reaching rock bottom can finally align a team with its greatest individual talent.

If the 2009 offseason means anything (and it probably doesn't, but Detroit needs a fever dream something fierce), the answer might be yes. Finally, after years of holding an entire city hostage, Matt Millen is gone. LT Gosder Cherilius is entering his second year of development, and with the addition of OT Jon Jansen should receive some valuable veteran help on the line. Kevin Smith returns after a rookie season in which he ran for almost 1000 yards and 4.1 yards per carry. Perhaps most importantly, Jim Schwartz, who turned the Tennessee Titans defense into THE TENNESSEE TITANS DEFENSE has his sights set on getting his team to win some battles in the trenches. Not bad, even if 0-16 means "not bad" includes a lack of obvious physical injuries.

But it's the draft that spoke volumes on where this team is going, and where it needs to go, and where its attentions and affections must remain if it is ever going to turn things around in the next couple of years. Make no mistake, as questionable as the Matt Stafford pick is, and as strange as the Brandon Pettigrew pick struck those believing that defense needed to come first, those picks were all about rebuilding the city that once was Detroit around it's new Megatron overlord. With an arm to find him anywhere on the field (whether in Stafford or in a reportedly lean and mean Culpepper, who could stun people thanks to a reunion with the offensive coordinator that made him a household name), and a legitimate threat to stretch the middle of the field and force defenses into some kind of honesty in tandem with the improving ground game, Calvin Johnson may finally have all of the pieces around him that he has so desperately needed. Forget the best player of his draft, Megatron may be the best player of the last three drafts. If the defense can provide a little support (and under Schwartz, one would have to imagine it will), then maybe, now that this offense has realized that Johnson is not a building block but instead a monolith, the Lions can turn things around sooner than anyone expected. After all, the NFC North isn't exactly a murderer's row (the best team there is still letting Tarvaris Jackson run the show…which is admirable for its commitment but the wrong move for a win-now franchise). Cliché time, but on any given Sunday, would you like to be the defensive coordinator up by less than seven and facing an offense boasting one of maybe three receivers that can ruin your day with one play? Sure, the playoffs aren't a sure thing,but are they ever? And considering that the schedule has gotten much, much easier (0-16 will do that to you), is it crazy to think that this team could win its divisional matchups and crawl into the dance?

Yes, it is crazy. But you know what, maybe crazy is excusable, considering I've been staring into the Megatron youtubes all day. Lions to the playoffs. This is the season my belief in the individual tailored system lives or dies.

And now, in two years, this will probably be an adult site.

Optimist/Pessimist - NFC South Draft Review

New Orleans Saints:

OPTIMIST:

Well, apparently the Saints’ “lull them into a false sense of security” defense didn’t work, so chief luller CB Jason David needed to be shipped off to Never Never Land. And if you needed a replacement for David’s anti-skills, Malcom Jenkins fits perfectly. I’m a firm believer in the tall receiver movement. What goes less heralded is the fact that I’m an even firmer believer in the tall corner movement that will be happening any day now. Jenkins has the necessary speed and agility to hang with receivers, but most importantly he won’t get pushed around by large playmakers hoping to take advantage of mismatches (watch this next offensive season…JUST WATCH IT). All I’m saying is that when you’re 23rd at pass defense, a big CB is a great move. Additionally, watch P Thomas Morstead earn this team the extra 5-10 yards in field position that will make this offense suddenly potent again. People forget that this team has the offensive juice; it’s just a matter of having the proper positioning.

PESSIMIST:

Wait, maybe this whole season was the “lull them into a false sense of security” plan, because that would explain this team hoping to turn the ship around with only one draft pick in the first three rounds. CB Malcom Jenkins is a stud, but S Chip Vaughn is nowhere near speedy or big enough to play center field in the NFL, and LB Stanley Arnoux plays the exact wrong position to try to get away with being unathletic. Additionally, considering that we should have already given up on Reggie Bush being a traditional RB (mark my words, the man will be an offensive FORCE without ever having a clear position) maybe a late round RB (CEDRIC PEERMAN…ugh, I’m going to get an ulcer from this dude being passed over…) would have fit the bill. The draft can’t solve everything, but history has shown that teams that ignore it (cough…Redskins…cough) often wish they had paid attention to it when they had the chance.

Atlanta Falcons:

OPTIMIST:

The delightfully reverse-named DT Peria Jerry gives this team some interior firepower on a DL that resurrected DE John Abraham’s career. If there’s one thing that the last couple of years have shown us, it’s that strength is good, but rarely the determining factor for a defensive lineman’s worth (Kris Jenkins and Haynesworth stand out as exceptions). Quickness, on the other hand, forces offensive linemen into mistakes and breaks plays down in the backfield. Jerry is that kind of DT, and with a little added mass, he could give an already athletic Falcons defense some much needed talent in the trenches. S William Moore brings the same athleticism to the defensive backfield as well, making for an all around successful draft.

PESSIMIST:

Honestly, this was a solid draft, but one has to wonder whether size in the defensive front, the safe angle for draft picks, would have been wise for this team, which was surprisingly porous against the run (25th in the league). Considering the fact that LB Curtis Lofton is already a speedy threat in the middle of the field, a big body to clog up running lanes may have gone a long way toward fixing this team and putting them in a position to contend next year. Still, it’s a nitpicky opinion in a pretty good draft.

Carolina Panthers:

OPTIMIST:

Make no mistake about it; this team was a legitimate contender for the championship last season despite the late meltdown. With that in mind, this draft needed to be about highlighting the talent that this team already has, and DE Everette Brown, who inexplicably slipped to the second round, does just that. Think Julius Peppers, for all his whining, won’t love having an athlete of Brown’s caliber forcing blocking schemes to account for him? The same can be said for DT Corvey Irvin, who will bring the same athletic talent to the middle of the line. For this team to get deep into the playoffs, it’s going to take Peppers playing up to his potential, and these moves both represent steps in that direction.

PESSIMIST:

Well, I guess that’s one way to tell the sports media where they can shove it. Seven picks, and not one quarterback that you think may have the potential to be better than Jake Delhomme? What dirt do you have on these guys that every other team missed? Is Chase Daniel a zombie? For all that I’ve said about this team being a contender, it is still woefully trapped in the Trent Dilfer mentality of keeping a quarterback who just needs to be not bad, which is made worse by the fact that Delhomme unequivocally sucks. If he starts serving up more four turnover affairs, the Panthers will be left with either Josh McCown or an unproven Matt Moore running the show. The fact that I’m sitting here thinking they might be better off for it is a testament to how shaky Delhomme has proven to be.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

OPTIMIST:

Considering how inept this team looked at times last season, I was pleasantly surprised by what may have been the craftiest draft strategy of any squad. First, they picked up perhaps the best pass catching TE in the league, Kellen Winslow, for a second round pick. Then they snookered (yes, I’m sticking with that word) every other team in the league to pass on QB Josh Freeman by convincing them that they’d found their quarterback in Byron Leftwich. Not to say Leftwich can’t be a solid stopgap while Freeman develops, but Freeman has perhaps the best physical tools of any quarterback in this draft other than Pat While (who is doomed to be my new Troy Smith). With WR Antonio Bryant having emerged as a vertical weapon and Winslow acting as a safety valve, Freeman will have plenty of tools for his copious physical gifts to use, ad the Bucs may have stolen the best quarterback of the draft.

PESSIMIST:

Great, except he’s a loser. A loser with the best arm of any quarterback in his class and sneaky mobility, but a loser nonetheless. I’ve made no secret of my disdain for Matt Stafford’s mediocre performance in college, but at least that guy put some winning seasons together, something Freeman never managed to do once as a starter in college. Whether or not one buys into the cliché of someone being a “winner” aside from his statistics and talents, there’s certainly something to be said for quarterbacks needing to step up and throw a team on their back at some point during their college career, where we see singular talents turn teams into winners all the time. The fact that Freeman was unable to do so should have Bucs fans worried

Optimist/Pessimist - AFC South Draft Review

Jacksonville Jaguars:

OPTIMIST:

Jack Del Rio doesn’t do subtlety or grace; his Jaguars have always been about scraping, scratching, grind-them-to-dust football. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that his first two picks were used to get a couple of massive blockers for his offensive line. OT Eugene Monroa and OT Eben Britton should help revive a unit that was decimated by injuries last year, causing the once dominant ground game to fall to 18th in the league. With holes to run through, there isn’t a more explosive back in the league than MJD, and this should get Mighty Mouse flying high once more. Meanwhile, DT Terrance Knighton brings some much needed size to a defensive interior that wasn’t as effective at disrupting the pocket as it has been in the past. In fact, this draft represents exactly the kind of return to the past Del Rio had to be hoping for during last year’s strange tumble into mediocrity.

PESSIMIST:

David Garrard emerged in 2007 as a potential franchise quarterback for the Jaguars, combining massive size with deceptive quickness and an arm big enough to hit any point on the field. While his team never asked him to do too much, Garrard made good use of his athletic, if underwhelming wideouts, punishing defenses for thinking Jacksonville couldn’t fly too. This year, he’s going to look back on the Matt Jones/Reggie Williams era as “the good old days.” WR Torry Holt has been an amazing receiver, but the man is in the twilight of his career and has a knee that can tell him when it rains. After that, it’s…well, that’s about it, actually. Outside of perpetual disappointment TE Mercedes Lewis, there’s really nobody else who can catch a pass, and two undersized, underwhelming late round receiver picks in this draft aren’t going to make teams any less likely to shut the run down and dare Garrard to beat them through the air. Without big targets with the speed and agility to compensate for what can at times be an inaccurate arm, I’m not sure Jacksonville has enough of a pass game to effectively run its one dimensional offense.

Indianapolis Colts:

OPTIMIST:

If the Patriots are draft geniuses thanks to their ability to trade up and snag physical freaks for low personnel costs, the Colts have the same reputation thanks to their ability to quietly reload with talent that goes unnoticed until later in rounds. Their last two first round picks, RB Joseph Addai and WR Anthony Gonzalez both failed to wow scouts with any particular part of their games, and yet both had the undeniable ability to become consistent NFL starters, which they have done. RB Donald Brown is a pick in the same mold. After a heralded career at UConn, Brown fell behind flashier back Knowshon Moreno on most draft charts. Meanwhile, thanks to the need for big names that cripples other teams, the Colts picked up the most consistent RB in the draft at the 27th pick. As a platoon back with the aforementioned Joseph Addai, Brown should give the Colts the kind of mechanical consistency in the offensive backfield that allows Peyton Manning to dissect overmatched pass defenses (last year’s ground game was the second worst in the league). Oh, and don’t sleep on WR Austin Collie, who could step in as an excellent slot option as Gonzalez replaces Marvin Harrison at the #2 spot.

PESSIMIST:

Last year marked the first time in a long time that the Colts looked beaten and battered in the trenches. Considering just how many talented defensive linemen were on the board, it’s a bit surprising that they went with a first round RB in a draft class that had become notorious for its dearth of special ball carriers (although again, ignore Cedric Peerman at your own peril). Furthermore, with Peyton getting older, QB Curtis Painter may be the most boring quarterback taken this year. I’m all for consistency, but at some point this team is going to have to make a big move at the positions that have always been consistent (OL, QB).

Tennessee Titans:

OPTIMIST:

Vince Young must be so pissed right now. WR Kenny Britt gives the team it’s first legitimate receiving talent since Young joined the team, and they waited until Kerry Collins took over at QB to draft him. Combining hands, size, and speed that , if it translates to the NFL, could do a lot of vertical damage, Britt is like a less explosive Braylon Edwards, which the Titans can get away with thanks to a run-first offense. DT Sen’Derrick Marks is another smart pick, particularly considering the loss of Albert Haynesworth in free agency. If his quickness can get a little bit of strength added on, we could be looking at Haynesworth light (ok, VERY light), which could take some of the heat off of a depleted DL unit. Finally, Jared Cook might have been my second favorite TE in the draft, and in Tennessee he fills the need for a vertical threat down the middle perfectly. Don’t look now, but the Titans suddenly have an athletic corps of receivers with the size to manhandle most DB units (don’t sleep on WR Dominique Edison either). PS: Javon Ringer will take LenDale White’s job sooner rather than later.

PESSIMIST:

What they don’t have is an answer to the simple question of what happens when Kerry Collins inevitably breaks down. At this point, the team had better hope that VY is coming back more focused than ever, because otherwise Patrick Ramsey or a less than exciting Alex Mortensen is getting the nod, and nobody wants to see that. Furthermore, while receivers routinely prove that speed isn’t everything, corners rarely do, making the knock on CB Ryan Mouton’s speed all the more damning for his pro prospects.

Houston Texans:

OPTIMIST:

What initially looked like stupidity in draft strategy has now become something of a calling card for the Texans in that their defense has once again picked up incredible talent. LB Brian Cushing steps into a LB corps that desperately needed another playmaker to join DeMeco Ryan solidifying a level of the defense that too often got beaten with quarterback safety valves (17th best pass defense in unacceptable for this squad). Meanwhile, the defensive line, perhaps the best in the division now that Haynesworth is gone, picked up DE Connor Barwin, who shows incredible speed for being such a massive individual, not unlike another first day pick that was mocked mercilessly in 2006, only to become one of the league’s most frightening defensive forces. Quick question: What’s worse than getting hit by a small motorcycle moving at motorcycle speeds? Answer: Getting hit by two. If Barwin develops along similar lines, quarterbacks had better start investing in better life insurance policies.

PESSIMIST:

Of course, QB Matt Schaub is probably way ahead of them on preparing for life after being broken into twenty different pieces. Waiting until the second day to pick up an offensive linemen is a risky move, particularly considering that Matt Schaub has proven to be less than sturdy. Don’t get me wrong, I like watching QB Dan Orlovsky run outside of the back of his own end zone as much as the next guy, but we’re wasting the prime of Andre Johnson’s career here, and the fact that we should be talking about him as the best WR in the league but don’t is a shame.

Optimist/Pessimist – NFC West Draft Class

Seattle Seahawks:

OPTIMIST:

I made no secret of my certainty regarding one fact: LB Aaron Curry was the best player in this draft. The fact that he dropped to the fourth pick overall makes him a steal for the Seahawks. Furthermore, he joins a LB corps rich in both youth and talent in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill. Considering how porous Seattle’s defense proved to be last year (30th overall, worst against the pass, 18th against the run), a freak like Curry who proved he could parlay his physicality into performance every week is exactly what Seattle needed. Don’t buy the hype; Curry didn’t factor as strongly into Wake Forest’s pass rush as he could have because the coach used him primarily in run support and in coverage, and in the pros he’ll give offensive coordinators headaches. Turning a promising corps into a great corps is never a bad thing, and Curry does just that. Equally good is the addition of OC Max Unger, a versatile interior offensive lineman who should do wonders for a run game that couldn’t find holes in the middle to save its life.

PESSIMIST:

I really like this draft for the Seahawks, and have made my faith in QB Seneca Wallace known, so if this seems halfhearted it kind of is, but how do you not draft a QB after last year? Wallace performed well down the stretch, and certainly should still be the man for the job if and when Hasselbeck finally breaks down for good, but the fact is that Hassy has shown signs of wear and tear for two straight seasons. Considering how much the team has invested in its WR corps (Deion Branch and Housh did not come cheap, and Carlson is shaping up to be an elite TE), having some sort of a backup plan for 2-3 years down the road just in case Wallace flames out couldn’t hurt. What’s that you say? They have Charlie Frye on the roster? Oh, better make that two quarterbacks needed then, because we want as big a buffer between Frye and actual football as possible.

St. Louis Rams:

OPTIMIST:

If Marc Bulger is ever going to prove that he deserved that massive contract he got after one amazing year, it’s going to take time for his accuracy to matter and a running game that actually keeps defenders honest. OT Jason Smith goes a long way toward solving both of those problems. Already knowledgeable regarding a pass blocking scheme, all that remains is for Smith’s physicality to be converted into successful run blocking. Considering the track record of rookie star offensive tackles over the last couple of years (Joe Thomas and Jake Long changed their teams completely), the Rams have to be excited at the prospect of a similar turnaround. Equally exciting should be CB Bradley Fletcher, who has the size to at least be considered a threat to divisional rivals Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

PESSIMIST:

There were an awful lot of holes to fill on this team, particularly on the offensive line and at WR. So the fact that the Rams used a second round pick on LB James Laurinaitis. While he may have the pedigree to finally bring the Intercontinental Title to the Rams (get it?), Laurinaitis’s knack for vanishing from the Buckeyes playing field should remind people of a less athletically gifted Vernon Gholston, and he’s only hanging around in the league thanks to physical talent that Laurinaitis just doesn’t have. As they watch Rey Maualuga dart from sideline to sideline, you have to thing that the Rams will wonder if they’ve once again fallen victim to the “character” bug.

Arizona Cardinals:

OPTIMIST:

Considering how inconsistent their defensive play was last year, the NFC champs needed to get better at disrupting offensive backfields. DE Cody Brown, who had a very good career at UConn, should bring even more physical prowess to a defense that got a major upgrade with Calias Campbell and Rodgers-Cromartie last year. S Rashad Johnson also fills in for Hood quite nicely in terms of ability. Throw in speedy, if undersized RB Larod Stephens-Howling as a replacement for J.J. Arrington, and this team could see some defensive maturity combine with youthful talent to actually improve next season, making last year’s dream come true into something more sustainable, particularly in this division.

PESSIMIST:

The only thing that could possibly be worse than taking RB Tim Hightower in the fifth round is drafting a Tim Hightower clone in the first round. Enter RB Beanie Wells, who is coming off of a foot injury and proved ineffective against top tier competition. For a team that had one glaring offensive need, specifically a consistent running back, you have to wonder how they managed to miss so badly with this pick.

San Francisco 49ers:

OPTIMIST:

The Niners needed a dose of new blood at WR, and either Michael Crabtree of Jeremy Maclin would have gotten the job done. In Crabtree, they get a ceiling of TJ Houshmandzadeh, which isn’t bad for a WR corps that relied on a whole lot of hopes and dreams last year. RB Glen Coffee provides the team with a good spell back for Frank Gore in a league that is growing more and more accustomed to platoons in the backfield. But perhaps the most interesting pick is QB Nate Davis. Considering the team’s struggles under center, Davis, who had an excellent career at Ball State and has one of the better arms in the draft, could be a legitimate competitor for the starter’s gig sooner rather than later. All in all, a lot of young blood will arrive on an offense that could use some new faces.

PESSIMIST:

Is nobody else suspicious of a WR who got a reputation for being a diva and refused to run for scouts either at the combine or his pro day, all the while claiming he was faster than everyone who DID run? Not for nothing, but in response to all of those critics who say that the Raiders took a stupid risk with DHB, I would argue that the Niners took an even dumber risk with Crabtree over a proven, speedy Maclin. Furthermore, in a draft rich with potential platoon backs, using a third rounder on Glen Coffee seems like a bit of a reach. Drafting a TE is yet another way to kill the confidence of your most talented offensive player, Vernon Davis (who looked like he might be turning a corner late last year), and as badly as this team needed help at QB, it needed help fast, and Nate Davis’s dyslexia raises questions about his ability to quickly absorb the complexities of an NFL offense (I am getting SO many karma points for not making at least three jokes that were in the first draft…). Long story short: The team certainly picked up needed offensive weaponry, but they may have left a lot on the table, and taken dumb risks in a draft that gave them the liberty to avoid doing so.

Optimist/Pessimist - AFC West Draft Review

Kansas City Chiefs

OPTIMIST
I dislike massive system overhauls that seemingly ignore elite talent, which was my thought of the initial 3-4 turn of the Jets in 2006 and the 3-4 switch of a Chiefs team with Glenn Dorsey so young in his career (just keep saying the name Mario Williams, doubters). That said, if you’re going to do it, it’s best to do what you can to make the transition as quick and effective as possible. Drafting two defensive linemen built to work in the 3-4 is the perfect way to do just that. DE Tyson Jackson is the kind of 3-4 tackle that can swallow offensive blockers or make them pay for not taking him seriously, and DT Alex Magee provides another quality end for a 3-4 scheme, giving the Chiefs a plethora of linemen. Considering that the team is considering a blend of 3-4 and 4-3 looks, this defense could become one of the most frustrating in the league thanks to its ability to put up a great front line in any format. And if WR Quentin Lawrence turns his speed into smart production at the number two WR spot, Pioli may have this squad at the top of a division in turmoil.

PESSIMIST
But man, when you have a 4-3 defense, DT Glenn Dorsey developing, and LB Aaron Curry, undeniably the best player available coming out of college, isn’t it just like a former Pats guy to draft for the system and not for the people involved? With Curry, a mediocre LB corps gets a shot in the arm, and opposing teams have to deal with two levels of defensive threats thanks to the aforementioned overflow of linemen. Without Curry, the front of this defense will be deadly (and the Giants taught us all that you can win with a stunning defensive front and not a whole lot more), but the middle of this defense will continue to raise questions. In short, a defensive front in transition now carries the burden of the entire defense, which could leave Dorsey looking like a bust when in reality he’s just the greatest remnant of a dead regime (aside from Brodie Croyle’s wife, that is).

San Diego Chargers

OPTIMIST
OG Louis Vasquez is a big man with a mean streak, which is always a good sign for an interior offensive lineman, and his addition should make Tomlinson look at least a little better than last year’s mediocrity. Furthermore, LB Larry English is one of the best player’s on film in this year’s draft. But the real player to keep an eye on here is WR Demetrius Byrd, who was an effective number one option at LSU and fell in the draft due to that most nebulous of draft measurements, “character issues.” With the speed to make a solid two or three option at WR and the size to frustrate typical corners, the Chargers may have pulled off a Houshmandzadeh style steal in the 7th round.

PESSIMIST
I am so tired of people pissing on the NFL combine, and drafts like this are why. No, the combine doesn’t tell you everything about a player, but you know what tells you even less? Your “gut”. It’s like scouts are a bunch of old men with dreamcatchers and windchimes they trust more than stopwatches. See, drafting on “gut” is how you wind up with a physically unimpressive pass rusher instead of a much needed offensive lineman, and an unnecessary slow RB instead of Cedric Peerman, who proceeded to slip two rounds lower to a team that will finish with at least two more wins. I don’t get to “kind of sort of feel my way to 30 MPH” when I drive, so why is it GMs somehow feel it’s OK to ignore combine performance when drafting positions so dependent on physical skill (looking RIGHT at you, Bengals…)?

Denver Broncos

OPTIMIST
You know what keeps Josh McDaniels’s clothes on? The gravitational pull of his HUGE BALLS. Those babies are also what made him decide to damn the torpedoes and draft for talent. The result is RB Knowshon Moreno being drafted in the first round despite a defense generously comparable to a thick fog. Considering that the team also acquired underrated RB J.J. Arrington and power back RB LaMont Jordan in the offeason, we may finally be looking at a Denver team that doesn’t keep nine backs on the roster. But more importantly in terms of need, the team used its second first round pick to add DE Robert Ayers, who is the kind of athletic monster that McDaniels’s old team used to add on a yearly basis, regardless of where he fit in the system. Versatile enough to rush at the line or drop back into pass coverage, this is the kind of physicality that a soft Denver defense has been missing for the last several years, and should speed the transition to a more workable 3-4 system.

PESSIMIST
Josh McDaniels had better pray that Kyle Orton walk onto the field on opening day and throw three touchdowns and no interceptions in a win, because otherwise Denver could be in flames by week two. I’ve heard of burning the boats, but not drafting a QB to at least develop behind Neckbeard is like shooting a couple of soldiers to prove you’re the man. In fact, of all the Belichick disciples, McDaniels certainly appears to be the most gung ho about establishing his primacy on the team. Whether this makes him more or less like his mentor remains to be seen, but without a couple of good wins quickly, he’ll have a whole city wondering why they ran the rare athlete out of town and kept a guy who can do what they do playing Madden every day.

Oakland Raiders

OPTIMIST
I said it when it happened, and I’ll say it again: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey over Crabtree and Maclin was the right decision. Crabtree was a so-so deep ball receiver in a pass wacky offense that reportedly turned him into a diva and gave him his one magic moment on which to build hype (if they showed the catch against Texas one more time on draft day, I was going to go insane). Meanwhile, Maclin, though certainly speedy and productive in college, is exactly the kind of player that disappears in the league when forced to become a top option too soon, which is what the Raiders are looking for (on the Eagles, he’ll be great, but in bracket coverage, he’d languish). In DHB, they get a faster and bigger receiver than either Crabtree or Maclin. Furthermore, with the immediate reaction against him, they also get a guy with something to prove, unlike their last two splashy picks. Yes, I recognize that DHB’s collegiate production wasn’t ideal, but anyone who watches ACC football (there are, like, five of us) knows that Maryland was a run first team with a bad QB. Considering that the Raiders are desperate to make JaMarcus Russell’s incomparable arm look like something other than a money pit, giving him a big, fast target was the right decision.

PESSIMIST
Fine, we won’t complain about taking a physical wonder that disappointed statistically in college. But that doesn’t mean the rest of this horrendous draft doesn’t get a good thrashing. Wasting a second round pick on a so-so safety is idiotic considering the needs this team has on both lines, and drafting a slew of undersized players means that for all the speed on both sides of the ball, nobody will be able to win their individual matchups, meaning they will be fast for exactly how long it takes them to run into an opposing player. I’m not convinced this offense is terrible (it made strides toward the end of last year), and there’s definitely some talent on the defensive side of the ball (Nnamdi is like a black hole where receivers go to die), but until this team starts winning some wars in the trenches, they’ll just get worn down to the point where their speed is less of a weapon and more of a spectacle, which is a word that has defined these guys for far too long.

Optimist/Pessimist - AFC East Draft Review

New England Patriots:

OPTIMIST
The way these guys work the rest of the league like a speed bag is ridiculous. Six picks in the second and third rounds? Let me translate: They get to restock talent without having to pay first round salaries to players that aren’t worth the price tag anyway. What’s more, nobody addresses key positions quite like the Pats. A hard nosed, run stopping safety who plays with an aggressive streak? Great, just what I needed, ANOTHER Rodney Harrison (albeit with the more delightful name of Patrick Chung). A safeguard against the mild retardation of Ellis Hobbs? Yes, the quickest corner in the draft who now has a chip on his shoulder for being passed in the first round will do quite nicely. Throw in the fact that this team found one of the toughest positions to fill (3-4 NT) in the second round, and it’s another year of the rich getting richer.

PESSIMIST
For the first time in a couple of years, this draft didn’t see the addition of some physical monster to the ranks of the NFL’s great villain. Last year Defensive Rookie of the Year LB Jerod Mayo seemed to magically appear wherever the ball was, using his speed to prevent plays from developing and his strength to overpower offensive schemes. In 2007, S Brando Meriweather brought frightening centerfield speed to a position that, thanks to the addition of valuable secondary players, will be free to make use of his natural ability as a ball hawk. Even 2006’s addition of Lawrence Maroney added a tantalizing element of quick strikes to the backfield, and despite disappointing returns Maroney is still too gifted to overlook. So when this draft went by without an big, splashy players coming on board, one had to wonder whether or not it was former GM Scott Pioli who was the think-big half of the Patriots “think-big, win-small” front office. A petty weakness, but also a potential crack in the armor of the most stable franchise in the league.

Buffalo Bills:

OPTIMIST
In a division that is reliant on either stalwart consistency (Pennington), potential greatness (Sanchez), or definite greatness (Brady), it’s interesting to see the Bills select Aaron Maybin in the first round, who has the speed to make nightmares for any offensive backfield. Furthermore, if they’re really behind the Trent Edwards experiment, taking a strong center in Eric Wood is another smart decision, and along with OG Andy Levitre should also bolster the interior of the line for RB Marshawn Lynch. In other words, screw the quarterback. While it’s certainly not the sexiest draft on the board, it is the kind of counter-divisional thinking that will either leave the Bills in surprising contention for the top, or once again woefully at the bottom. Oh, and don’t sleep on Shawn Nelson, and not just because, unlike Robert Royal, he’s not made of slow moving granite.

PESSIMIST
I’ve been asking this for two years running now, but are we really so sure about Trent Edwards that not a single QB needed to be drafted in a draft with at least three interesting prospects within the Bills’ grasp? It’s saying something that every single team was in the running for the division last season with the exception of Buffalo, and a lot of the blame for that has to fall on Edwards, especially with Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish to throw to, and James Hardy potentially a red zone behemoth. Now that the team has chosen to invest in TO, it’s sink or swim time for the young quarterback, who will not recover if things start to go south and Owens turns on his signal caller. Even if you don’t believe that Edwards is a bland, talentless echo of a game manager (and I do, I so do), a little preparing for the worst couldn’t have hurt.

Miami Dolphins:

OPTIMIST
PAT WHITE!!!



PESSIMIST
Um…maybe they reached for CB Vontae Davis. And Patrick Turner, though big…um…No, screw it, I’m too happy about this pick. Henne is going to get rocked early, meaning that we’re all living in the age of PAT WHITE!!!!!!



New York Jets:

OPTIMIST
I like Mark Sanchez. There’s a reason he emerged as my second favorite QB in our draft previews this year, and on a team where he’ll be given the chance to learn without the threat of replacement, his cool under pressure and ability to throw on the run could find unique use in Brian Schottenheimer’s system (that’s right Schotty, I’m giving you ONE more year to get back to 2006 form). In short, he’s a much needed shot in the arm at a position that has needed one since the team gave up on Handsome Chad in 2007. Additionally, Shonn Greene is the perfect addition to a backfield that needs a between the tackles RB to take some pressure off of Thomas Jones (easy with the contract talk, Joneses…one good season does not a franchise player make…). Rotating in with Jones and Neon Leon Washington, the Jets may have suddenly created a dangerously versatile backfield with the ability to keep fresh legs on the ground at all times.

PESSIMIST
Mark my words, Tannenbaum: If not drafting a WR means that we’re running Brad Smith out there as a number two option, I am going to throw batteries at the field at whatever home games I am able to attend. Would it have killed us to at least give our rookie quarterback an experimental number one option? I love Cotchery, but he’s not a number one, and nobody else on the team has proven themselves, with the mentioned exception of Brad Smith, who has proven himself to be very, very, very bad. I hate that I’m going to have to drastically change my stance on gun control to root for Plaxico Burress to wind up on Gang Green…

Ups and downs

We're dealing with exams and the offseason, but if you want to get another perspective on draft analysis, head over to Fuhbaw, where my friend and your friend Cian lists the picks he liked and didn't like with rationale to boot. How he missed Cedric Peerman is beyond me. If you're reading this, consider us back in a "UFL debate" style fight, Cian.